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Facebook shares shoot up after strong Q4 earnings despite data breach

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Re: Facebook shares shoot up after strong Q4 earnings despite data breach

#21

Post by zepearl »

chollida1 wrote: post #14
zepearl wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you think that this chart of historical DAU (Daily Active Users) is correct? https://www.statista.com/statistics/346167/facebook-global-d... Looks too stable to me (especially taking into account the scandals). What's the definition of DAU anyway? E.g. if I used it on 2 days in a row, e.g. yesterday and today, and then do nothing, am I counted as a DAU or not for that quarter? Or maybe I have to be active for at l…

Yes, I assume its correct, though to be clear, I have absolutely no way to validate it. This quote from an analyst is one reason why I believe the user numbers. > "It's hard to get people to stop using something they love. People love using these products, and there's these massive attacks that news outlets continue to heap on them, but consumers like these platforms and advertisers follow eyeballs. Most of Facebook'…

Thx

In the meanwhile I found this (2015) about MAU: https://www.adweek.com/digital/monthly-active-users-definiti...

>>We define a monthly active user as a registered Facebook user who logged in and visited Facebook through our website or a mobile device, or used our Messenger app (and is also a registered Facebook user), in the last 30 days as of the date of measurement.

I suppose that DAU is the same, but of course daily.

Still, the chart looks too nice to me => personally, I always automatically mistrust any chart that looks that nice/regular.

Re: Facebook shares shoot up after strong Q4 earnings despite data breach

#22

Post by echevil »

panabee wrote: post #8
chollida1 wrote: post #5

Pre: - still 30% off highs Numbers: - 4Q EPS $2.38, Est. $2.18 - 4Q Rev. $16.91B, Est. $16.39B - 4Q Mobile Ad Rev. as % Ad Rev. 93% - Mobile represents 93% of ad revenue. Mark doesn't get enough credit for his big switch to mobile, - Cost of revenue up 74 percent year over year - Operating costs went up by 60%, Note this is more than their growth rate, really the only concerning thing from a good quarter - Annual cap…

thanks for this and other breakdowns. what was the primary driver for operating costs rising so much?

They probably need higher compensation to attract engineers at this point and their existing engineers are probably leaving the company at higher rate. They also need to hire a lot more people to tackle whatever issues they are trying to solve

Re: Facebook shares shoot up after strong Q4 earnings despite data breach

#23

Post by IshKebab »

adpirz wrote: post #12

It’s hard not to look at this performance and take away from it that most people really don’t care about privacy. As upsetting as the thought may be to some, Mark’s hypothesis that privacy is no longer a social norm we value seems to be proven more and more right. Despite all the scandals and hearings, their DAU are more than the population of the largest countries on Earth. Short of serious legislation, what slows t…

I don't think that's true. People clearly care about privacy otherwise we wouldn't have curtains and account access controls etc.

They just aren't worried enough about Facebook violating their privacy enough to stop using it. Frankly for most people that is the right decision. Facebook has done much less immoral stuff than the media would have you believe. Even the Cambridge Analytica type stuff (i.e. the obvious potential for abuse of the Friends API) was totally public at the time but nobody cared.

Re: Facebook shares shoot up after strong Q4 earnings despite data breach

#24

Post by mbell »

rdiddly wrote: post #4
ardy42 wrote: post #2

> Facebook’s daily to monthly user ratio, or stickiness, held firm at 66 percent where it’s stayed for years, showing those still on Facebook aren’t using it much less. What are the precise definitions of daily and monthly active users? To be a daily user, do you literally have to use Facebook every day for a month?

No, it's just the number of users who used it that day, no matter what each of them did on previous or subsequent days.

I am curious what 'used' means. e.g. Does logging into a third party service via facebook login count as 'used' since you technically hit their servers?

Re: Facebook shares shoot up after strong Q4 earnings despite data breach

#25

Post by yumraj »

nodesocket wrote: post #17

Just continues to show, privacy issues don't matter to companies because it doesn't affect profitability and the stock price. Even with barrage of constant #deletefb and "I deleted my facebook" posts, it didn't actually matter. Essentially no change to daily active users and advertising revenue.

Yes, that is why you need regulation to drive change.

Re: Facebook shares shoot up after strong Q4 earnings despite data breach

#26

Post by cm2012 »

zepearl wrote: post #21
chollida1 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, I assume its correct, though to be clear, I have absolutely no way to validate it. This quote from an analyst is one reason why I believe the user numbers. > "It's hard to get people to stop using something they love. People love using these products, and there's these massive attacks that news outlets continue to heap on them, but consumers like these platforms and advertisers follow eyeballs. Most of Facebook'…

Thx In the meanwhile I found this (2015) about MAU: https://www.adweek.com/digital/monthly-active-users-definiti... >>We define a monthly active user as a registered Facebook user who logged in and visited Facebook through our website or a mobile device, or used our Messenger app (and is also a registered Facebook user), in the last 30 days as of the date of measurement. I suppose that DAU is the same, but of course…

Things tend to smooth out at high volumes.

Re: Facebook shares shoot up after strong Q4 earnings despite data breach

#27

Post by cm2012 »

adpirz wrote: post #12

It’s hard not to look at this performance and take away from it that most people really don’t care about privacy. As upsetting as the thought may be to some, Mark’s hypothesis that privacy is no longer a social norm we value seems to be proven more and more right. Despite all the scandals and hearings, their DAU are more than the population of the largest countries on Earth. Short of serious legislation, what slows t…

Since there's no real life downside to FB using your data to show you more relevant ads, people are making the rational trade-off. Privacy issues with FB are ideology based in nature.

Re: Facebook shares shoot up after strong Q4 earnings despite data breach

#28

Post by chillacy »

mbell wrote: post #24
rdiddly wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it's just the number of users who used it that day, no matter what each of them did on previous or subsequent days.

I am curious what 'used' means. e.g. Does logging into a third party service via facebook login count as 'used' since you technically hit their servers?

No, if it were that tangential, investors wouldn't be reporting it and using it to make buying / selling decisions.

Re: Facebook shares shoot up after strong Q4 earnings despite data breach

#29

Post by chillacy »

yumraj wrote: post #25
nodesocket wrote: post #17

Just continues to show, privacy issues don't matter to companies because it doesn't affect profitability and the stock price. Even with barrage of constant #deletefb and "I deleted my facebook" posts, it didn't actually matter. Essentially no change to daily active users and advertising revenue.

Yes, that is why you need regulation to drive change.

People haven't traditionally cared about privacy when it comes time to US elections either, it's definitely not a single-issue voter issue like abortion, gun ownership, welfare, etc.

So I propose a dictatorship of HN commenters ;)

Re: Facebook shares shoot up after strong Q4 earnings despite data breach

#30

Post by int_19h »

adpirz wrote: post #12

It’s hard not to look at this performance and take away from it that most people really don’t care about privacy. As upsetting as the thought may be to some, Mark’s hypothesis that privacy is no longer a social norm we value seems to be proven more and more right. Despite all the scandals and hearings, their DAU are more than the population of the largest countries on Earth. Short of serious legislation, what slows t…

Alternatively, people do care about privacy, but they care more about the value that FB provides to them. And part of that value can be due to customer lock-in (customers want social networks where the people they interact with are).
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