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Facebook shares shoot up after strong Q4 earnings despite data breach

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Re: Facebook shares shoot up after strong Q4 earnings despite data breach

#11

Post by jedberg »

ardy42 wrote: post #2

> Facebook’s daily to monthly user ratio, or stickiness, held firm at 66 percent where it’s stayed for years, showing those still on Facebook aren’t using it much less. What are the precise definitions of daily and monthly active users? To be a daily user, do you literally have to use Facebook every day for a month?

Daily active users is the number of unique people who showed up in a single 24 hour period. Monthly active users is the number of unique people who showed up at least once that month.

To get the ratio of DAU to MAU, you can either take the average DAU for each day of the month, and then compare that to the MAU, or you can take the DAU to MAU ratio for each day and then average that. They'll both come out about the same (doing it the second way smoothes it out just a bit more because of the loss of precision which makes the month to month comparisons or quarter to quarter a little smoother).

Re: Facebook shares shoot up after strong Q4 earnings despite data breach

#12

Post by adpirz »

It’s hard not to look at this performance and take away from it that most people really don’t care about privacy. As upsetting as the thought may be to some, Mark’s hypothesis that privacy is no longer a social norm we value seems to be proven more and more right. Despite all the scandals and hearings, their DAU are more than the population of the largest countries on Earth. Short of serious legislation, what slows them down? Negative press seems to be nothing but pebbles thrown at steamroller...

Re: Facebook shares shoot up after strong Q4 earnings despite data breach

#13

Post by dawhizkid »

panabee wrote: post #8
chollida1 wrote: post #5

Pre: - still 30% off highs Numbers: - 4Q EPS $2.38, Est. $2.18 - 4Q Rev. $16.91B, Est. $16.39B - 4Q Mobile Ad Rev. as % Ad Rev. 93% - Mobile represents 93% of ad revenue. Mark doesn't get enough credit for his big switch to mobile, - Cost of revenue up 74 percent year over year - Operating costs went up by 60%, Note this is more than their growth rate, really the only concerning thing from a good quarter - Annual cap…

thanks for this and other breakdowns. what was the primary driver for operating costs rising so much?

probably headcount

Re: Facebook shares shoot up after strong Q4 earnings despite data breach

#14

Post by chollida1 »

zepearl wrote: post #9
chollida1 wrote: post #5

Pre: - still 30% off highs Numbers: - 4Q EPS $2.38, Est. $2.18 - 4Q Rev. $16.91B, Est. $16.39B - 4Q Mobile Ad Rev. as % Ad Rev. 93% - Mobile represents 93% of ad revenue. Mark doesn't get enough credit for his big switch to mobile, - Cost of revenue up 74 percent year over year - Operating costs went up by 60%, Note this is more than their growth rate, really the only concerning thing from a good quarter - Annual cap…

Do you think that this chart of historical DAU (Daily Active Users) is correct? https://www.statista.com/statistics/346167/facebook-global-d... Looks too stable to me (especially taking into account the scandals). What's the definition of DAU anyway? E.g. if I used it on 2 days in a row, e.g. yesterday and today, and then do nothing, am I counted as a DAU or not for that quarter? Or maybe I have to be active for at l…

Yes, I assume its correct, though to be clear, I have absolutely no way to validate it.

This quote from an analyst is one reason why I believe the user numbers.

> "It's hard to get people to stop using something they love. People love using these products, and there's these massive attacks that news outlets continue to heap on them, but consumers like these platforms and advertisers follow eyeballs. Most of Facebook's advertisers have no other place to go with a return on investment this good. This is clear proof."

Re: Facebook shares shoot up after strong Q4 earnings despite data breach

#15

Post by dawhizkid »

zepearl wrote: post #9
chollida1 wrote: post #5

Pre: - still 30% off highs Numbers: - 4Q EPS $2.38, Est. $2.18 - 4Q Rev. $16.91B, Est. $16.39B - 4Q Mobile Ad Rev. as % Ad Rev. 93% - Mobile represents 93% of ad revenue. Mark doesn't get enough credit for his big switch to mobile, - Cost of revenue up 74 percent year over year - Operating costs went up by 60%, Note this is more than their growth rate, really the only concerning thing from a good quarter - Annual cap…

Do you think that this chart of historical DAU (Daily Active Users) is correct? https://www.statista.com/statistics/346167/facebook-global-d... Looks too stable to me (especially taking into account the scandals). What's the definition of DAU anyway? E.g. if I used it on 2 days in a row, e.g. yesterday and today, and then do nothing, am I counted as a DAU or not for that quarter? Or maybe I have to be active for at l…

Few people outside of SV bubble are paying much attention to these scandals.

Re: Facebook shares shoot up after strong Q4 earnings despite data breach

#17

Post by nodesocket »

Just continues to show, privacy issues don't matter to companies because it doesn't affect profitability and the stock price. Even with barrage of constant #deletefb and "I deleted my facebook" posts, it didn't actually matter. Essentially no change to daily active users and advertising revenue.

Re: Facebook shares shoot up after strong Q4 earnings despite data breach

#18

Post by tejaswiy »

ardy42 wrote: post #2

> Facebook’s daily to monthly user ratio, or stickiness, held firm at 66 percent where it’s stayed for years, showing those still on Facebook aren’t using it much less. What are the precise definitions of daily and monthly active users? To be a daily user, do you literally have to use Facebook every day for a month?

Is there something that tracks the number of minutes a daily active user spends on the site? I still login to facebook but I barely post on it anymore and spend way less time than I used to a couple of years ago.

Re: Facebook shares shoot up after strong Q4 earnings despite data breach

#19

Post by echevil »

adpirz wrote: post #12

It’s hard not to look at this performance and take away from it that most people really don’t care about privacy. As upsetting as the thought may be to some, Mark’s hypothesis that privacy is no longer a social norm we value seems to be proven more and more right. Despite all the scandals and hearings, their DAU are more than the population of the largest countries on Earth. Short of serious legislation, what slows t…

Well, though privacy is kind of imprtant to most people, what alternatives do people have (other than stop using all social media?) I don't think the problem of Facebook is unique to them at all - data leak, fake news, whatever - they are instrinsically hard problem to solve, and frankly I don't think there would be lot of companies doing much better.

Re: Facebook shares shoot up after strong Q4 earnings despite data breach

#20

Post by [deleted] »

adpirz wrote: post #12

It’s hard not to look at this performance and take away from it that most people really don’t care about privacy. As upsetting as the thought may be to some, Mark’s hypothesis that privacy is no longer a social norm we value seems to be proven more and more right. Despite all the scandals and hearings, their DAU are more than the population of the largest countries on Earth. Short of serious legislation, what slows t…

[deleted]
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