Tesla Q4 2018 Earnings Letter
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Tesla Q4 2018 Earnings Letter
1–10 of 99 posts
Re: Tesla Q4 2018 Earnings Letter
#2Pre:
- Will they give guidance on Model 3, Geographic breakdown(most other peers do)?
- how many sales are high end cars vs low end?
- TSLA down 11% on year vs market up 5ish
- convertable debt issue, we're now in the 20 day average window, option implied vols show market doesn't think they'll make it
- Elon commented that they could pay bond w cash and didn't seem concerned, cash balance is up, though so are short term liabilities
Car Notes:
- current lowest price car sold is Model 3 $44,000
- reported to sustain 7,000 per week, a pretty big miss from the 10,000 that elon claimed they'd be at by mid 2018 but expected
- Est. 2019 delivered 360,000 to 400,000
- Est. Q1 delivers expected to be down vs 2018
- Est. Q1 deliveries expected to be down in North America
- still no funding secured for China plant
Solar:
- why even track anymore, installations fell, yawn
Numbers:
- cash balance is 3.7B
- cash flow positive again!!, beat last quarter, though capital spending fell alot( down to $300ish million)
- 4Q Adj EPS $1.93, Est. $2.14 (Big misses, what happend here?)
- layoffs could cut $400M annually from budget
- Customer Deposits $792.6M vs $908.5M in 3Q
- Bonds unmoved, yield still 8%
- Elon expects to be profitable each quarter in 2019
Misc:
Lots of analysts congratualting Tesla saying they've got the supply side sovled.
Shrinking sales on the high end indicate taht their next challenge will be on the demand side, especially on the high end that allowed them to survive for so long
Can they be profitable with $1000 in margin per car instead of 5,000-10,000?
Interesting note by Bloomberg
> Services reported a loss of almost $500M
"So basically, Tesla is taking a $500 million hit just to save customers from the dealership experience."
Re: Tesla Q4 2018 Earnings Letter
#3Pre: - Will they give guidance on Model 3, Geographic breakdown(most other peers do)? - how many sales are high end cars vs low end? - TSLA down 11% on year vs market up 5ish - convertable debt issue, we're now in the 20 day average window, option implied vols show market doesn't think they'll make it - Elon commented that they could pay bond w cash and didn't seem concerned, cash balance is up, though so are short t…
[deleted]
Re: Tesla Q4 2018 Earnings Letter
#4Pre: - Will they give guidance on Model 3, Geographic breakdown(most other peers do)? - how many sales are high end cars vs low end? - TSLA down 11% on year vs market up 5ish - convertable debt issue, we're now in the 20 day average window, option implied vols show market doesn't think they'll make it - Elon commented that they could pay bond w cash and didn't seem concerned, cash balance is up, though so are short t…
"Services and Other" from the consolidated statement of ops shows:
Q4 Services and Other Revenue: $531 MM
Q4 Services and Other Cost Of Revenue: $668 MM
Which would suggest a loss on services of $137 MM.
Is this the same 'Services' that Bloomberg is referring to? I cannot find any other mention of Services in the letter.
Re: Tesla Q4 2018 Earnings Letter
#5Pre: - Will they give guidance on Model 3, Geographic breakdown(most other peers do)? - how many sales are high end cars vs low end? - TSLA down 11% on year vs market up 5ish - convertable debt issue, we're now in the 20 day average window, option implied vols show market doesn't think they'll make it - Elon commented that they could pay bond w cash and didn't seem concerned, cash balance is up, though so are short t…
You mention solar is a big nothing burger. I remember when the acquisition happened there was quite an outcry about Tesla basically bailing out Musk's other company. Do they have a liability here or is it just going to disappear into the ether?
Re: Tesla Q4 2018 Earnings Letter
#6Pre: - Will they give guidance on Model 3, Geographic breakdown(most other peers do)? - how many sales are high end cars vs low end? - TSLA down 11% on year vs market up 5ish - convertable debt issue, we're now in the 20 day average window, option implied vols show market doesn't think they'll make it - Elon commented that they could pay bond w cash and didn't seem concerned, cash balance is up, though so are short t…
You mention solar is a big nothing burger. I remember when the acquisition happened there was quite an outcry about Tesla basically bailing out Musk's other company. Do they have a liability here or is it just going to disappear into the ether?
Why would it be a liability? Shareholders voted and accepted the purchase of SolarCity.
I agree its sketchy, but Musk doesn't technically control the company. He has a large share of the voting pool, but the shareholders in general were willing to bail out SolarCity. Its kinda "Democracy in action".
I think it was a stupid move for the shareholders to do, but its fully within their rights to do so.
Re: Tesla Q4 2018 Earnings Letter
#7Pre: - Will they give guidance on Model 3, Geographic breakdown(most other peers do)? - how many sales are high end cars vs low end? - TSLA down 11% on year vs market up 5ish - convertable debt issue, we're now in the 20 day average window, option implied vols show market doesn't think they'll make it - Elon commented that they could pay bond w cash and didn't seem concerned, cash balance is up, though so are short t…
You mention solar is a big nothing burger. I remember when the acquisition happened there was quite an outcry about Tesla basically bailing out Musk's other company. Do they have a liability here or is it just going to disappear into the ether?
They still have “Solar energy systems, leased and to be leased” for $6.3bn, plus $350mn in goodwill, in their balance sheet. We’ll see a nice write-off someday.
Edit: for context, total assets are $29.7bn and liabilities are $23.0bn.
Re: Tesla Q4 2018 Earnings Letter
#8Pre: - Will they give guidance on Model 3, Geographic breakdown(most other peers do)? - how many sales are high end cars vs low end? - TSLA down 11% on year vs market up 5ish - convertable debt issue, we're now in the 20 day average window, option implied vols show market doesn't think they'll make it - Elon commented that they could pay bond w cash and didn't seem concerned, cash balance is up, though so are short t…
"Services and Other" from the consolidated statement of ops shows: Q4 Services and Other Revenue: $531 MM Q4 Services and Other Cost Of Revenue: $668 MM Which would suggest a loss on services of $137 MM. Is this the same 'Services' that Bloomberg is referring to? I cannot find any other mention of Services in the letter.
Services number is YoY in the columns beside where you are probably looking
$1,880,354,000 costs - $1,391,041,000 revenues is $(489,313,000) in losses
Re: Tesla Q4 2018 Earnings Letter
#9Earlier quoted context omitted.
You mention solar is a big nothing burger. I remember when the acquisition happened there was quite an outcry about Tesla basically bailing out Musk's other company. Do they have a liability here or is it just going to disappear into the ether?
Why would it be a liability? Shareholders voted and accepted the purchase of SolarCity. I agree its sketchy, but Musk doesn't technically control the company. He has a large share of the voting pool, but the shareholders in general were willing to bail out SolarCity. Its kinda "Democracy in action". I think it was a stupid move for the shareholders to do, but its fully within their rights to do so.
To nitpick, it's literally plutocracy, not democracy.
Re: Tesla Q4 2018 Earnings Letter
#10Earlier quoted context omitted.
You mention solar is a big nothing burger. I remember when the acquisition happened there was quite an outcry about Tesla basically bailing out Musk's other company. Do they have a liability here or is it just going to disappear into the ether?
Why would it be a liability? Shareholders voted and accepted the purchase of SolarCity. I agree its sketchy, but Musk doesn't technically control the company. He has a large share of the voting pool, but the shareholders in general were willing to bail out SolarCity. Its kinda "Democracy in action". I think it was a stupid move for the shareholders to do, but its fully within their rights to do so.
Didn't also Musk abstain from voting before the SolarCity acquisition? That's what I remember, anyway.