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Dropbox buys HelloSign (YC W11) for $230M

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Re: Dropbox buys HelloSign (YC W11) for $230M

#111

As someone who has never worked in an enterprise SaaS will never fully understand the hype or secret sauce around building and selling eSignature software.

When these services first came out there were lots of technical hurdles to overcome re: web based PDF signing, but it's pretty straightforward to do nowadays.

I had our co-op built an open-source esignature API, that produces audit logs and has a similar user flow to electronic signature provides like Docusign, Hellosign, Adobe sign, etc.... It took him a little over 2 months to get everything working. Only real difficulty he ran into was scaling and stamping signatures on the PDF, as there wasn't a singly Python PDF library that had all the necessary features.

In the end he got it figured out though - for anyone interested / looking to implement eSignatures in their app, see https://github.com/this-is-ari/libresign - it's MIT licensed.

Re: Dropbox buys HelloSign (YC W11) for $230M

#113
post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The URLs contain a long random string in them, no? This makes them unguessable. Public-by-default seems to enable easy sharing of documents. I would hope that corporate plans would impose stricter privacy controls, but for personal use, being able to share a document just by sharing its URL seems very convenient. Though I suppose defaulting the permissions such that anyone with the URL can edit the document seems may…

This is security by obscurity, it's still technically possible to access the documents. Like if you accidentally revealed the URL somehow. You shouldn't have to worry about things like that.

Surprisingly, it turns out that using security based on a URL with a random string is /not/ security by obscurity.

The security pattern of a URL with a random string is security-equivalent to a pubic username and a random string password, and also equivalent to the security pattern of a bearer token: so long as the URL is shared only with authorized users, it's the same security hardness.

The pattern can tune the security by using more randomness, such as more characters. There are implementation areas to consider, such choosing a random number generator with high quality randomness like /dev/urandom. There are some access control areas to consider, such as all the people having the same bearer token, which means there's no way to do finer-grained permissions per-user or per-role or per-attribute. There are some user interface areas to consider, such as if a user/agent doesn't treat the URL as secret, because it shows content rather than masking characters such as "*".

For comparison, "security by obscurity" means there's a weakness in how the security is built, such that if you saw the source code, or the physical insides of a lock, then you would understand more about how to crack the security.

In URL pattern, an example of security by obscurity would be if the URL string was not actually random but instead was simply incrementing, or was based on a reversible function of the time or username, etc. If you read the source code, you would discover that there's guessable sequence or guessable trick, and thus become much more likely to break the security.

Edit: I strongly favor higher security, and fine-grained access control, and multi-factor authentication, and UI/UX masking, etc. This post is just to look at security by obscurity.

Re: Dropbox buys HelloSign (YC W11) for $230M

#114
post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The URLs contain a long random string in them, no? This makes them unguessable. Public-by-default seems to enable easy sharing of documents. I would hope that corporate plans would impose stricter privacy controls, but for personal use, being able to share a document just by sharing its URL seems very convenient. Though I suppose defaulting the permissions such that anyone with the URL can edit the document seems may…

This is security by obscurity, it's still technically possible to access the documents. Like if you accidentally revealed the URL somehow. You shouldn't have to worry about things like that.

Whatever the semantics of security by obsucrity, it's still not ideal that an unintentional screengrab or screen share could reveal the fully editable path of a doc

(i much prefer the google docs method of being able to limit to specific orgs or people)

Re: Dropbox buys HelloSign (YC W11) for $230M

#115
post #92

I don't mean to ask this ironically; how do these companies come up with these numbers during a sale? Jet.com was sold for $3 Billion, but Craftsman Tools was sold for only $900 Million. I don't really know anything about HelloSign, but can someone tell me roughly why they might have come up with the $230M number?

I hate faxing and signing real documents. Hellofax fixes that and I've been using it since 2011 or something.

Re: Dropbox buys HelloSign (YC W11) for $230M

#116
post #92

I don't mean to ask this ironically; how do these companies come up with these numbers during a sale? Jet.com was sold for $3 Billion, but Craftsman Tools was sold for only $900 Million. I don't really know anything about HelloSign, but can someone tell me roughly why they might have come up with the $230M number?

Also, a few things

1) How much would it cost for Dropbox to build and acquire/steal those users?

2) Even if 1) is not that high, what is the opportunity cost for dropbox to do so? Yes, they could move a bunch of engineers and PMs to work on it, but then they wouldn't be working on other more important parts of Dropbox.

3) It's not always about how much you get by buying a competitor, it's sometimes about how much you will lose in the long-term if that competitor doesn't go away. Think Instagram and Facebook. $1B sounded crazy back then, but how much would have Facebook lost if instagram kept growing and growing?

Re: Dropbox buys HelloSign (YC W11) for $230M

#117
post #92

I don't mean to ask this ironically; how do these companies come up with these numbers during a sale? Jet.com was sold for $3 Billion, but Craftsman Tools was sold for only $900 Million. I don't really know anything about HelloSign, but can someone tell me roughly why they might have come up with the $230M number?

It should be something derived net present values or discounted cash flow. Same general idea: what is the summation of future cash flows distributable to owners after a suitable discount rate (plus liquidation value, maybe).

It's hard to extrapolate rapid growth correctly, but it can lead to very high present values (ie ~20x sales, depending growth curve of expenses & current margins).

The same formula, given a 10% discount rate zero growth implies a ~9x multiple on earnings, a pretty low valuation.

Craftsman Tools was a brand, if I recall correctly (made by Danaher?). So while asset light and potentially higher margin, there probably wasn't as much liquidation value there. If growth rate wasn't high or decreasing the predicted valuation on earnings might have been low.

Then you just run into human factors like fomo/bidding wars (maybe, like Nicira, Heptio?), things that impact valuation like perceived higher or low risk free rates that might impact the discount rates that are used, et cetera.

Re: Dropbox buys HelloSign (YC W11) for $230M

#118
post #113
post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is security by obscurity, it's still technically possible to access the documents. Like if you accidentally revealed the URL somehow. You shouldn't have to worry about things like that.

Surprisingly, it turns out that using security based on a URL with a random string is /not/ security by obscurity. The security pattern of a URL with a random string is security-equivalent to a pubic username and a random string password, and also equivalent to the security pattern of a bearer token: so long as the URL is shared only with authorized users, it's the same security hardness. The pattern can tune the sec…

I did not know this distinction, thank you, it makes sense!

Re: Dropbox buys HelloSign (YC W11) for $230M

#119
post #92

I don't mean to ask this ironically; how do these companies come up with these numbers during a sale? Jet.com was sold for $3 Billion, but Craftsman Tools was sold for only $900 Million. I don't really know anything about HelloSign, but can someone tell me roughly why they might have come up with the $230M number?

revenue * multiple let's say $10m in ARR * a 23x multiple The way you get to the multiple is a combination of how fast the revenue is growing, how long you think that will keep up, and the margin of the revenue. Craftsman Tools, for example, was probably not growing much or shrinking and likely had low margin revenue but I don't know.

In the formula you provided how is the number for the multiple arrived at? Is that the multiplier that will be realized at some future date based on the current rate of growth? If so what would that future date be - the next round of funding, an IPO, something else?
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