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The AI Threat to Open Societies

georgesoros.com

21–30 of 157 posts

Re: The AI Threat to Open Societies

#21
post #11

here is an idea: instead of sacrificing AI maybe we should sacrifice organized governments.

It has been tried in the world history many times and is currently being tried in some parts of Somalia. Most of people do not prefer that, so if you do, maybe you should move there?

My guess is that we are about to see "No True Scotsman" very soon after I post this.

Re: The AI Threat to Open Societies

#22
post #16
post #4

AI is only in a supporting role here. It's massive data collection and storage at low cost that's the problem. Machine learning just helps to digest the data. Tech has solved the problem of previous attempts at Big Brother - you just couldn't afford enough watchers to watch everybody all the time. Now, you can. It's even profitable.

And tech will also solve the power problem of autocratic regimes. Right now, a dictator can't control every single individual in the country on their own. They need police that can search your apt at 5am because you made a blog post critical of the government. They need lawyers to convict you, prison guards, etc. In such regimes, the dictator still has to put people into places of power so that the will of the dictat…

The exertion of control doesn’t even have to be blatant or physical. If social credit is a determining factor in an individual’s ability to function effectively in society, e.g. by way of credit ratings and access to opportune employment, there’s a clear risk of increased self-censorship and conformance, thereby debilitating serious political opposition even in its infancy.

Re: The AI Threat to Open Societies

#24
post #20
post #4

AI is only in a supporting role here. It's massive data collection and storage at low cost that's the problem. Machine learning just helps to digest the data. Tech has solved the problem of previous attempts at Big Brother - you just couldn't afford enough watchers to watch everybody all the time. Now, you can. It's even profitable.

Dictators have one mind; Oligarchies have a handful, or scores. AI (as is, not scify) is (I think) a multiplier or leverage for a mind. The open societies differentiation is potentially millions or billions of minds. To realise that differentiation open societies have to create a population that has it's own mind, and develop a substrate that supports individual thinking, and of course manage the interaction and flow…

The trend seems to suggest that AI will make us think less critically, not more. The singularity posits a massive intelligence boost, the likes we can't comprehend. But what if instead it makes us all fools, unable to think for ourselves and determine true/false or right/wrong?

Re: The AI Threat to Open Societies

#25
History has already answered this numerous times. AI is a tool much like a semi-automatic rifle or the printing press. The people who understand it well have an accelerated advantage over those who do not. It is both a good and bad thing depending upon who wields the tool. Like any force multiplier it will be misunderstood (magic) and improperly regulated by both open and closed societies alike.

Like with any tool the real victors will be those who adapt it to solve basic immediate problems: a utility.

Re: The AI Threat to Open Societies

#26
post #22
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And tech will also solve the power problem of autocratic regimes. Right now, a dictator can't control every single individual in the country on their own. They need police that can search your apt at 5am because you made a blog post critical of the government. They need lawyers to convict you, prison guards, etc. In such regimes, the dictator still has to put people into places of power so that the will of the dictat…

The exertion of control doesn’t even have to be blatant or physical. If social credit is a determining factor in an individual’s ability to function effectively in society, e.g. by way of credit ratings and access to opportune employment, there’s a clear risk of increased self-censorship and conformance, thereby debilitating serious political opposition even in its infancy.

If this social credit or indirect influence is perfectly fair, it's not really a problem. However, it's very likely it will be unfair to some, and create tension and unrest that will lead to the same problems we have without AI.

Re: The AI Threat to Open Societies

#27
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And tech will also solve the power problem of autocratic regimes. Right now, a dictator can't control every single individual in the country on their own. They need police that can search your apt at 5am because you made a blog post critical of the government. They need lawyers to convict you, prison guards, etc. In such regimes, the dictator still has to put people into places of power so that the will of the dictat…

The technology isn't a fundamental change, it's just a more deadly weapon.

It's not more deadly. Weapons of mass destruction already exist. The difference isn't increased ability to do harm, it's increased ability to target harm. It's no fun being dictator when all your subjects are dead, so old-fashioned WMDs are of limited use. Sufficiently advanced AI lets you selectively kill the troublemakers without harming the compliant subjects, and without having to rely on potential competitors for your dictator position. This is a fundamental change.

Re: The AI Threat to Open Societies

#28
post #22
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And tech will also solve the power problem of autocratic regimes. Right now, a dictator can't control every single individual in the country on their own. They need police that can search your apt at 5am because you made a blog post critical of the government. They need lawyers to convict you, prison guards, etc. In such regimes, the dictator still has to put people into places of power so that the will of the dictat…

The exertion of control doesn’t even have to be blatant or physical. If social credit is a determining factor in an individual’s ability to function effectively in society, e.g. by way of credit ratings and access to opportune employment, there’s a clear risk of increased self-censorship and conformance, thereby debilitating serious political opposition even in its infancy.

Yes, what I describe above is something that would follow the social credit system. The social credit system is I think a great tool to keep the masses at bay and for their micro-management. But I think that very powerful people will mostly stay outside of it. Those are the danger #1 for any dictator. Xi right now has purged their ranks of anyone too dangerous but any avid follower can turn into someone who betrays the trust from above given the right circumstances. Part of the job of a dictator is to make sure that those circumstances are avoided for their powerful underlings e.g. by giving them acces to spoils and riches.

Re: The AI Threat to Open Societies

#29

This reminds me of the "Do artifacts have politics" paper by Langdon Winner [1]. He argues that technologies have inherent political traits. Nuclear power is considered to be supportive of autocratic political systems since nuclear power plants need centralized planning and networks to be effective. Solar power is considered democratic since anyone can harness it. It's an interesting paper and definitely worth a read…

George Orwell made much the same point in 1945:

http://www.orwell.ru/library/articles/ABomb/english/e_abomb

Re: The AI Threat to Open Societies

#30
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The technology isn't a fundamental change, it's just a more deadly weapon.

It's not more deadly. Weapons of mass destruction already exist. The difference isn't increased ability to do harm, it's increased ability to target harm. It's no fun being dictator when all your subjects are dead, so old-fashioned WMDs are of limited use. Sufficiently advanced AI lets you selectively kill the troublemakers without harming the compliant subjects, and without having to rely on potential competitors fo…

Not a fundamental change. There are plenty of tools for selectively targeting individuals (e.g., guided munitions, watch lists, teams of agents that monitor your every move). It could potentially reduce the resources required for such selective targeting, but if past dictatorships are any indication, these resources are not the limiting factor.
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