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Oregon Bottle Deposit System Hits 90 Percent Redemption Rate

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Re: Oregon Bottle Deposit System Hits 90 Percent Redemption Rate

#111

Post by crankylinuxuser »

nkurz wrote: post #9

There is fear that some significant portion of the recent increase in redemption rate may be due to fraud. Oregon recently increased the redemption from 5 cents to 10 cents, but the neighboring state of Washington still does not have a deposit. This creates an incentive for people to scavenge bottles in Washington and return them across the border in Oregon. Here's a recent article about the problem: "Oregon senator…

> may be due to fraud

You mean they're 3d printing fake bottles? No?

Oh, did they buy their own injection molding equipment and producing bottles? No?

Oh, so they're gathering corporate trash and returning it? And you call _that_ fraud? Uh huh. Sounds like the bottle return is doing a hell of a job.

Re: Oregon Bottle Deposit System Hits 90 Percent Redemption Rate

#112

Post by XMPPwocky »

MRD85 wrote: post #81
XMPPwocky wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They didn't pay the 10 cents if they bought the bottle in a state with a smaller deposit.

Someone else did though, so the 10 cents is paid in full.

Well, sorta.

The cost is covered because many bottle deposits end up going unclaimed.

But nobody paid 10 cents for that bottle.

Re: Oregon Bottle Deposit System Hits 90 Percent Redemption Rate

#113

Post by eesmith »

sokoloff wrote: post #90
MRD85 wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If return rate hits 100% then it's a success IMO. Oregan has then successfully ensured that for every bottle used in their state that they also recycle one. Does it matter if it's a non-Oregan bottle?

Someone has to pay for the costs of the program (OBRC program costs are around $34M/yr per a slide deck I found and seem to currently be funded by slippage in return rate). If Oregon returns hit 100%, leaving no funds to pay for the program, the program isn't likely to continue without state taxpayer funding (currently, it's funded from the program itself and not the state's taxpayers).

The slide deck at https://www.obrc.com/Content/Reports/OBRC%20Quarterly%20Repo... says $34M/year, so agrees with you.

As a theoretical point, even with a 100% return rate, it's still possible to make money on the float. Buy a 12-pack, deposit $1.20, return 1 week later, get $1.20 back, but in the meanwhile that buck-and-change could make ~1/50¢ in interest.

The same report says they do about 2 billion containers / year, which at 10¢/container is $200M. In the optimistic case of 1 year between purchase and return, assuming 2% interest, that's $4M. Assuming 1 week, I think it's $100K, so not much.

A more likely income source is the profit from selling relatively clean metal, glass, and PET. That report says 151.0 M Aluminum Cans per quarter. I see numbers around 2¢/can for the metal value, so that's $3M/quarter or call it $10M/year.

So even with 100% return rate, there is still money coming in. Just (as you say) not enough to pay for the program.

FWIW, https://www.obrc.com/Content/Reports/OBRC%20Annual%20Report%... says that there was "$25 million" in "Estimated value of 2017 unredeemed deposits". That plus the Al can value is easily enough to pay for the program.

Re: Oregon Bottle Deposit System Hits 90 Percent Redemption Rate

#114

Post by rootusrootus »

theoh wrote: post #53
sokoloff wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no doubt some significant overhead to the program, that is likely modeled as being covered in part by the "slippage" of bottles that don't get returned. Fraudulent returns cut into that allowance, even before the redemption rate hits 100%.

How does the Oregon program "know" if a returned bottle is bona fide or fraudulent (from out of state)? I don't see how substituting units of a fungible quantity, which identical bottles seem to be, can have the consequences you suggest.

Years ago we did it by barcode. It sounds like there is some reason that does not work now, but back when I would bother to return soda cans, the machine that collected/crushed them would scan the barcode and reject the out-of-state ones.

Re: Oregon Bottle Deposit System Hits 90 Percent Redemption Rate

#115

Post by sokoloff »

jwagenet wrote: post #14
nkurz wrote: post #9

There is fear that some significant portion of the recent increase in redemption rate may be due to fraud. Oregon recently increased the redemption from 5 cents to 10 cents, but the neighboring state of Washington still does not have a deposit. This creates an incentive for people to scavenge bottles in Washington and return them across the border in Oregon. Here's a recent article about the problem: "Oregon senator…

I wouldn’t be surprised if there is some spillover from Washington or California, but I doubt that it can be an incredibly high percentage. Frankly, I think it’s better that these cans and bottles are being recycled, fraudulently or otherwise. I’m sure it hurts the Oregon pocketbook, but according to the article, the cost of the program is only six figures. This is only a problem (cost wise) when redemption is over 1…

I don’t see the “6 figure annual cost” anywhere in that article and this report says $34M/yr: https://www.obrc.com/Content/Reports/OBRC%20Quarterly%20Repo...

Re: Oregon Bottle Deposit System Hits 90 Percent Redemption Rate

#116

Post by JoshTriplett »

The article goes to pains to deride curbside recycling, but at the same time, curbside recycling means not wasting resources and time carrying cans to the nearest recycling center, not dealing with the awful experience that is the average recycling center, and not dealing with the stores to get the resulting small change. How much gas is used driving cans and bottles to the store? I just throw cans into the curbside recycling bin along with all the other recycling, and live with the 10 cent waste as yet another tax.

Re: Oregon Bottle Deposit System Hits 90 Percent Redemption Rate

#117

Post by rdiddly »

nkurz wrote: post #9

There is fear that some significant portion of the recent increase in redemption rate may be due to fraud. Oregon recently increased the redemption from 5 cents to 10 cents, but the neighboring state of Washington still does not have a deposit. This creates an incentive for people to scavenge bottles in Washington and return them across the border in Oregon. Here's a recent article about the problem: "Oregon senator…

I had to laugh at myself, because my first thought was that it's related to the efforts of the swelling numbers of the homeless. That's basically a joke out of thin air mind you, not a "statement," so please don't bother refuting or confirming.

One thing's for sure -- and this was discussed when China first reneged on recycling the plastics: Commingled recycling at the curb has been a disaster. In my opinion, predictably so. I remember being surprised when it first began, to think that it could be economical or efficient to have to separate the streams further downstream. Turns out I was right.

Sorting and separating isn't that hard, and people would've learned and mastered it by now, if they'd been required to do it. Contrary to the hope, if you coddle people they will not show their appreciation by meeting the new, lower minimum expected of them; they will continue to push the bar even lower.

Re: Oregon Bottle Deposit System Hits 90 Percent Redemption Rate

#119

Post by sokoloff »

eesmith wrote: post #113
sokoloff wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone has to pay for the costs of the program (OBRC program costs are around $34M/yr per a slide deck I found and seem to currently be funded by slippage in return rate). If Oregon returns hit 100%, leaving no funds to pay for the program, the program isn't likely to continue without state taxpayer funding (currently, it's funded from the program itself and not the state's taxpayers).

The slide deck at https://www.obrc.com/Content/Reports/OBRC%20Quarterly%20Repo... says $34M/year, so agrees with you. As a theoretical point, even with a 100% return rate, it's still possible to make money on the float. Buy a 12-pack, deposit $1.20, return 1 week later, get $1.20 back, but in the meanwhile that buck-and-change could make ~1/50¢ in interest. The same report says they do about 2 billion containers / ye…

Great points that I hadn’t considered. Thanks!

Re: Oregon Bottle Deposit System Hits 90 Percent Redemption Rate

#120

Post by Sohcahtoa82 »

MRD85 wrote: post #80
dragonwriter wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How does the Oregon program "know" if a returned bottle is bona fide or fraudulent (from out of state)? The program doesn't on a per bottle bases, but the effectiveness at dealing with the problem the program aims to solve (local landfilling recyclable containers) is impacted by the substitution; in the context of the function served, imported bottles that would not otherwise be imported are not fungible with local…

If return rate hits 100% then it's a success IMO. Oregan has then successfully ensured that for every bottle used in their state that they also recycle one. Does it matter if it's a non-Oregan bottle?

It's spelled "Oregon" btw.
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