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Euro area is back on the brink of recession

economist.com

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Re: Euro area is back on the brink of recession

#71

Post by beerlord »

adventured wrote: post #20

Since 2007 - broadly the great recession time frame forward - Lithuania has had by far the best GDP per capita growth among Euro members at nearly 40% (nominal, USD terms). Estonia is second, at around 19-20%. Latvia is third at about 11%. Slovakia is up 10%. A distant fifth is Germany at around 7%. Ireland is up a couple percent. Everyone else in the Eurozone is either near flat or negative on growth over the last ~…

You are just seeing a reversion to mean for those poorer ex-communist states getting richer. The growth is driven by cheap labour, energy and land.

You cannot imagine that once free of the shackles of Communism, a high-IQ country like Poland will stay forever poor, instead they will eventually equalise with neighbours like Germany:

https://www.worlddata.info/iq-by-country.php

Re: Euro area is back on the brink of recession

#72

Post by sonnyblarney »

stupidprizes wrote: post #58
sonnyblarney wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of this has to do with massive growth elsewhere, not so much failing growth in W. Europe, which is more of a new trend. I don't think the 'warm bodies arms race' is going to end well for anyone, another perspective might be more apt.

I don't think the 'warm bodies arms race' will end well either. What perspective are you considering?

Current growth strategies are all fundamentally 'warm body growth' i.e. the economy is grown mostly through babies or immigration, not any kind of real industrial growth or innovation.

If you look at USA growth vs. Western Europe, the USA does better, but not so much if you account for headcount.

As Western nations have fewer babies, there's a push for more migration, which in some places can work, not so much in others.

Europe has quite a lot of people and there are real physical limits to that growth - surely, it could all be as dense as Hong Kong but at some point, there needs be some consideration.

The West should not be trying to compete with Asia by having as many babies as them, surely.

If anything, we should maybe be trying to help tackle population explosion in some places, which can be done even with fairly non controversial methods like basic economic prosperity.

Re: Euro area is back on the brink of recession

#73

Post by makomk »

macintux wrote: post #48
owengriffiths wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They don't seem to make the link that maybe Brexit is not such a bad idea after all, which seems a logical conclusion to me.

You think a recession in Europe will impact Britain less after Brexit? It’s not as if Britain will have more trading options.

The EU is actually pretty protectionist, to the point where Turkey got into some trouble with the WTO for implementing their trade policies as part of the customs union with the EU.

Re: Euro area is back on the brink of recession

#74

Post by lelima »

throw564d wrote: post #66
pas wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The link between brexit and what? Also, why do you think brexit is not a bad idea?

For one thing it means that one person (e.g. Angela Merkel) doesn't get to unilaterally determine UKs immigration levels any longer.

Uk was one of the most powerful members of the EU before brexit and saying "one person (e.g. Angela Merkel) determine UKs immigration levels" is not correct.

UK is not part of the Schengen Agreement, like, Ireland they can decide if a particularity nationality need a visa, I have dual nationality and I can enter Ireland or Uk without a visa using one passport and need a visa using another.

Re: Euro area is back on the brink of recession

#75

Post by lelima »

NKosmatos wrote: post #23
PedroBatista wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Meanwhile, every other country in the World is smooth sailing.

Certainly not, lots of issues in many other countries. It’s just that the density/concentration of problems is higher in EU (IMHO).

I recommend the documentary Where to Invade Next, from Michael Moore.

I think EU have actually little problems compare with others.

Re: Euro area is back on the brink of recession

#76

Post by zozbot123 »

kaybe wrote: post #35
rossdavidh wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there is no chart because, if you go find one, it shows EU growth in the last ten years has been going up and down in a pretty similar fashion to Switzerland, Japan, South Korea, and other non-EU advanced economies. This would indicate that being in the EU hasn't really helped them all that much, but it also hasn't hurt that much (in aggregate). So, not much of a story, which feeds right back to your point.

Well, the EU was not made to improve the economies of its members. Its main goal is to intertwine them enough to make another big war way too painful.

No surprise there. "When goods don't cross borders, armies will."

Re: Euro area is back on the brink of recession

#77

Post by imtringued »

throw564d wrote: post #66
pas wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The link between brexit and what? Also, why do you think brexit is not a bad idea?

For one thing it means that one person (e.g. Angela Merkel) doesn't get to unilaterally determine UKs immigration levels any longer.

Someone must have sold you a bridge then.

Re: Euro area is back on the brink of recession

#78

Post by collyw »

sonnyblarney wrote: post #72
stupidprizes wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think the 'warm bodies arms race' will end well either. What perspective are you considering?

Current growth strategies are all fundamentally 'warm body growth' i.e. the economy is grown mostly through babies or immigration, not any kind of real industrial growth or innovation. If you look at USA growth vs. Western Europe, the USA does better, but not so much if you account for headcount. As Western nations have fewer babies, there's a push for more migration, which in some places can work, not so much in oth…

> which can be done even with fairly non controversial methods like basic economic prosperity.

Where's the money going to come from in a non-controversial way?

Re: Euro area is back on the brink of recession

#79

Post by sonnyblarney »

collyw wrote: post #78
sonnyblarney wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Current growth strategies are all fundamentally 'warm body growth' i.e. the economy is grown mostly through babies or immigration, not any kind of real industrial growth or innovation. If you look at USA growth vs. Western Europe, the USA does better, but not so much if you account for headcount. As Western nations have fewer babies, there's a push for more migration, which in some places can work, not so much in oth…

> which can be done even with fairly non controversial methods like basic economic prosperity. Where's the money going to come from in a non-controversial way?

Well it may not come from anywhere.

But we still have a long way to go in applying technology and processes to make our lives better.

Also, as 5B poor people in the world come online and become consumers, they're going to need a lot of iPhones and eat a lot of KFC etc.

Re: Euro area is back on the brink of recession

#80

Post by toyg »

nickik wrote: post #56
kaybe wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, the EU was not made to improve the economies of its members. Its main goal is to intertwine them enough to make another big war way too painful.

Funny that mostly not how they sold it to the poor countries, or even the rich countries. That might have been what the elites believed, more political ingratiation. That of course is good for them as well. In reality when they 'sold' this is was all about economics. And the routes of the whole thing are economic as well.

You have aims, and you have ways. The signatories on the Treaty of Rome all had very explicit political aims - it was 1957, the Cold War was in full swing, something had to be done. They simply had the intuition that the only way to reach these aims was through economic integration first, because the continent was still too raw from two centuries of total war. With the years, the model was so successful that others joined because of the economic benefits alone. But it was never just about business, not even Thatcher seriously believed that; it was about the realities of a world where European countries, kings of the planet for half a millennia, were going to become fundamentally irrelevant in a few generations, and risked being again the battlefield between global superpowers.
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