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Euro area is back on the brink of recession

economist.com

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Re: Euro area is back on the brink of recession

#41

Post by adventured »

raiyu wrote: post #13

A headline in search of an article. Very little context provided, would have probably been served even better with just a graph of the euro zone growth from 1999 quarter by quarter versus other economies like Japan, US, China for context. Journalism feels lazier and lazier as it constantly searches for more clicks and ad impressions.

For reference here's the 1999 through the end of 2017 GDP per capita figures and relevant chart, with the US (and $USD) as a baseline, and I've included some other side countries below.

The biggest gains: China, Russia, Romania, the Baltics, Czech, Slovakia, Poland

The worst: Japan, Greece, Italy, France

https://i.imgur.com/uLfuhXA.png

Lithuania $3,113 -> $16,680 (436%) | Latvia $3,151 -> $15,594 (395%) | Estonia $4,119 -> $19,704 (378%) | Slovakia $5,636 -> $17,604 (212%) | Ireland $26,284 -> $69,330 (164%) | Slovenia $11,442 -> $23,597 (106%) | Spain $15,678 -> $28,156 (80%) | Finland $26,178 -> $45,703 (75%) | Austria $27,174 -> $47,290 (74%) | Netherlands $27,951 -> $48,223 (73%) | United States $34,620 -> $59,531 (72%) | Belgium $25,444 -> $43,323 (70%) | Portugal $12,474 -> $21,136 (69%) | Germany $26,795 -> $44,469 (66%) | France $24,673 -> $38,476 (56%) | Italy $21,936 -> $31,952 (46%) | Greece $13,245 -> $18,613 (41%)

China $873 -> $8,826 (911%) | Russia $1,330 -> $10,743 (708%) | Romania $1,610 -> $10,813 (572%) | Czech $6,307 -> $20,368 (223%) | Poland $4,389 -> $13,811 (215%) | South Korea $10,409 -> $29,742 (186%) | New Zealand $15,322 -> $42,940 (180%) | Australia $20,521 -> $53,799 (162%) | Canada $22,167 -> $45,032 (103%) | Switzerland $40,581 -> $80,189 (98%) | Sweden $30,577 -> $53,442 (75%) | Denmark $33,440 -> $56,307 (68%) | Japan $36,026 -> $38,428 (6.6%)

Re: Euro area is back on the brink of recession

#42

Post by toyg »

kaybe wrote: post #35
rossdavidh wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there is no chart because, if you go find one, it shows EU growth in the last ten years has been going up and down in a pretty similar fashion to Switzerland, Japan, South Korea, and other non-EU advanced economies. This would indicate that being in the EU hasn't really helped them all that much, but it also hasn't hurt that much (in aggregate). So, not much of a story, which feeds right back to your point.

Well, the EU was not made to improve the economies of its members. Its main goal is to intertwine them enough to make another big war way too painful.

And to make Europeans strong enough to be peers to US and then-USSR, rather than being their battlefield. This has become even more urgent now that China and India have accelerated their inevitable rise to superpower status.

Re: Euro area is back on the brink of recession

#43

Post by pas »

olivermarks wrote: post #37
owengriffiths wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They don't seem to make the link that maybe Brexit is not such a bad idea after all, which seems a logical conclusion to me.

I suspect that is the signal from the Rothchild empire - someone will have to pick up the Italian debt and the EU is arguably obsolete in its present form and wouldn't reform when it could prior to the UK referendum. (Rothchild own half the economist and it is largely their mouthpiece). Going forward and post UK exit from the EU (and probably other nation states too) there will be a reformation around some new organi…

"Aside from the Agnelli family, smaller shareholders in the company include Cadbury, Rothschild (21%), Schroder, Layton and other family interests as well as a number of staff and former staff shareholders." - from wikipedia

Re: Euro area is back on the brink of recession

#44

Post by pas »

owengriffiths wrote: post #33
zcid wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, I had to double check to make sure I was actually reading the Economist. Felt weird to be getting a perspective like that from them. Why the shift?

They don't seem to make the link that maybe Brexit is not such a bad idea after all, which seems a logical conclusion to me.

The link between brexit and what?

Also, why do you think brexit is not a bad idea?

Re: Euro area is back on the brink of recession

#45

Post by sonnyblarney »

rb808 wrote: post #25

A huge issue is the stagnating population growth in European countries. Over the last 10 years Germany, Italy, Spain have only barely risen in population. Of course that means lots more retirees and fewer workers. Maybe flat economy is actually a good outcome as can be expected. One of my favorite stats is that 100 years ago the population of Europe was nearly 30% of the world's total. Now its Finally Yes I dont thin…

Most of this has to do with massive growth elsewhere, not so much failing growth in W. Europe, which is more of a new trend.

I don't think the 'warm bodies arms race' is going to end well for anyone, another perspective might be more apt.

Re: Euro area is back on the brink of recession

#46

Post by hueving »

Daishiman wrote: post #36
NKosmatos wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Certainly not, lots of issues in many other countries. It’s just that the density/concentration of problems is higher in EU (IMHO).

The EU doesn't have a looming student loan crisis, or a health crisis due to opioid epidemics. In terms of human suffering caused by these two issues alone I have a hard time believing the EU is worse off.

I fail to see the looming student loan crisis given that they can't be discharged in bankruptcy.

Re: Euro area is back on the brink of recession

#47

Post by toyg »

cm2187 wrote: post #9

That I think is the saving grace of Brexit. Investor confidence in Italian public debt will evaporate sooner or later, and I don’t see Germany allowing and paying for a bailout of Italy, given how they reacted to the bailout of Greece. The UK will likely look like a safe heaven for capitals when that happens.

Italy has had the same debt levels for almost 30 years now. Who could lose faith, has already lost it a long time ago. And a lot of that debt is internally held anyway.

If necessary, Italy will again be put under special measures as it was at the end of Berlusconi’s run; but it will never, ever default. Italians will self-tax to death before they default on their public debt, because too much of that debt is with themselves.

Re: Euro area is back on the brink of recession

#48

Post by macintux »

owengriffiths wrote: post #33
zcid wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, I had to double check to make sure I was actually reading the Economist. Felt weird to be getting a perspective like that from them. Why the shift?

They don't seem to make the link that maybe Brexit is not such a bad idea after all, which seems a logical conclusion to me.

You think a recession in Europe will impact Britain less after Brexit? It’s not as if Britain will have more trading options.

Re: Euro area is back on the brink of recession

#50

Post by xiphias2 »

iknowstuff wrote: post #19
xiphias2 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right, bonds are globally extremely inflated. It's predictable that people are losing confidence in fiat currencies with such an asset bubble and without a country to escape to anymore. I was proud owner of CHF as an exception from other fiat currencies until it got pegged to EUR.

Well, the peg only lasted for three years.

Only? I lost enough money in 1 day that I lost my trust in the Swiss National Bank. I'm not complaining though, I started diversifying to other asset classes and easyly made it back, so I view it as a lesson learned.
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