This article seems to ignore Northern and Eastern Europe which are booming. Italy is not the whole Europe. Compare it to US where different states have different performance at different times.
Euro area is back on the brink of recession
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Re: Euro area is back on the brink of recession
#22We can always just keep siphoning cash from US multinationals thru bogus antitrust claims. That's one way to stay afloat in the face of demographic crisis, stagnant productivity, and Chinese takeover of key sectors.
Re: Euro area is back on the brink of recession
#23Things are not looking promising and 2019 is European elections year. Greece has financial and many other issues, Italy has also many financial and internal issues, Germany is not holding the same powerful position as it had with Merkel, UK is uncertain with one foot in the EU, France has already a lot of problems and many more coming up and the same goes for other countries (immigration, politics, economy...). Let’s…
Meanwhile, every other country in the World is smooth sailing.
Certainly not, lots of issues in many other countries. It’s just that the density/concentration of problems is higher in EU (IMHO).
Re: Euro area is back on the brink of recession
#24The Economist has historically been a big supporter of the EU and globalization. Something has shifted in their perspective. They were also pretty downbeat about the EU's prospects while discussing the Aachen Treaty between France and Germany that was signed yesterday.
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2019/01/17/france-and-germ...
Re: Euro area is back on the brink of recession
#25A huge issue is the stagnating population growth in European countries. Over the last 10 years Germany, Italy, Spain have only barely risen in population. Of course that means lots more retirees and fewer workers. Maybe flat economy is actually a good outcome as can be expected.
One of my favorite stats is that 100 years ago the population of Europe was nearly 30% of the world's total. Now its Finally Yes I dont think its necessarily a bad thing, but you can't expect strong economic growth will falling working age population.
Re: Euro area is back on the brink of recession
#26The Economist has historically been a big supporter of the EU and globalization. Something has shifted in their perspective. They were also pretty downbeat about the EU's prospects while discussing the Aachen Treaty between France and Germany that was signed yesterday. https://www.economist.com/leaders/2019/01/17/france-and-germ...
Yeah, I had to double check to make sure I was actually reading the Economist. Felt weird to be getting a perspective like that from them. Why the shift?
Re: Euro area is back on the brink of recession
#27Since 2007 - broadly the great recession time frame forward - Lithuania has had by far the best GDP per capita growth among Euro members at nearly 40% (nominal, USD terms). Estonia is second, at around 19-20%. Latvia is third at about 11%. Slovakia is up 10%. A distant fifth is Germany at around 7%. Ireland is up a couple percent. Everyone else in the Eurozone is either near flat or negative on growth over the last ~…
Well, looking at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_Netherlands, it shows Dutch GDP per capita (in EUR, nominal) up by >14% since 2007. You used GDP in USD, but to me that seems somewhat misleading: just because the EUR dropped relative to USD, doesn't mean that the economy suddenly shrank.
> I'm not sure how the Euro survives if those sink lower in a recession and see another lost decade.
This seems like a non sequitur to me. Why wouldn't the Euro survive? If Japan had a lost decade, would you speculate about the survival of the yen?
Re: Euro area is back on the brink of recession
#28Since 2007 - broadly the great recession time frame forward - Lithuania has had by far the best GDP per capita growth among Euro members at nearly 40% (nominal, USD terms). Estonia is second, at around 19-20%. Latvia is third at about 11%. Slovakia is up 10%. A distant fifth is Germany at around 7%. Ireland is up a couple percent. Everyone else in the Eurozone is either near flat or negative on growth over the last ~…
Well, looking at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_Netherlands , it shows Dutch GDP per capita (in EUR, nominal) up by >14% since 2007. You used GDP in USD, but to me that seems somewhat misleading: just because the EUR dropped relative to USD, doesn't mean that the economy suddenly shrank. > I'm not sure how the Euro survives if those sink lower in a recession and see another lost decade. This seems like…
Maybe Japan has more obeying population than the more enterprising population in Europe.
Re: Euro area is back on the brink of recession
#29Earlier quoted context omitted.
Meanwhile, every other country in the World is smooth sailing.
Certainly not, lots of issues in many other countries. It’s just that the density/concentration of problems is higher in EU (IMHO).
I don't think so. When people think about the USA they only think about the 1 or 2 most significant problems overall. With Europe you think about the 1 or 2 for each of the constituent countries and so it seems more problematic. To be comparable you would need to think about the 1 or 2 most significant problems for each state in the USA. Once you do that the number of issues is not that different.
Re: Euro area is back on the brink of recession
#30That I think is the saving grace of Brexit. Investor confidence in Italian public debt will evaporate sooner or later, and I don’t see Germany allowing and paying for a bailout of Italy, given how they reacted to the bailout of Greece. The UK will likely look like a safe heaven for capitals when that happens.
How does Brexit make the UK attractive in the event of a near-term Eurozone crisis? The grim economic outlook if the UK's major trade partners are all in deep recession isn't improved by it having lost a lot of that trade earlier in the year for other reasons, and its economy isn't going to reinvent itself overnight.