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Big Cities No Longer Deliver for Low-Skill Workers

bloomberg.com

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Re: Big Cities No Longer Deliver for Low-Skill Workers

#11

Post by Bucephalus355 »

And yet we see this huge push in the intelligentsia for how cities “increase creativity” and promote value “x y and z” and how “we should be like China and build planned mega cities”.

Cities that are very walkable and have a thriving downtown / mixed business areas can be a ton of fun and very good, but it’s very hard to ever make that affordable, and basically impossible to do in America which has large space demands and associates home ownership with the American Dream.

If anything, I see the intellgientsia pushing it because they have been captured by the global rich (see Steven Pinker) and the super rich love cities (again we all do) and they want more of them to play in as well as a huge domestic servant / labor force bought of with a modicum of UBI for the time being.

Re: Big Cities No Longer Deliver for Low-Skill Workers

#12

Post by wonderwonder »

The top 1% of American's own more wealth than the bottom 90% and this concentration is only increasing. Soon no cities regardless of size will deliver for low skilled workers as there will simply not be enough of the proverbial pie to go around. As wealth is concentrated and rents and property values rise the vast majority of this country will (does?) live paycheck to paycheck. This is unsustainable and will either need to be addressed or we will be living in a very real dystopia.

Add the very real prospect of social security collapsing and we have a good setup for the streets being filled with homeless and vast portions of the population failing simply because there was just not enough money to go around.

Re: Big Cities No Longer Deliver for Low-Skill Workers

#13

Post by slededit »

swampthinker wrote: post #2

My tinfoil hat theory is that this is being caused by the increasing concentration of wealth. Which is being enabled by increasing levels of automation and efficiency.

US worker productivity growth has been extremely limited over the last 15 years. Simply put the economy isn’t that efficient relative to population growth.

What has happened is massive growth in drug prices, housing, and other non-productive areas of the economy. Rent seeking is rampant.

Re: Big Cities No Longer Deliver for Low-Skill Workers

#14

Post by jnbiche »

netcan wrote: post #10

" middle-class life to those without a college degree " Anytime you start delving into what has changed for a subset of people, over decades, the most important piece of the puzzle is decided ding who qualifies for the subset. I mean concepts like "middle class" or "without a college degree." A lot more people get degrees, in 2018. Does the graduates/nongraduates segment still represent a comparable group of people?…

> It turned out, college was partly a proxy for class. What college grad earnings in the 60s was actually saying is that upper-middle class kids grow into upper-middle class adults.

I think this is a critical observation that lots of people--including some economists--have missed.

Re: Big Cities No Longer Deliver for Low-Skill Workers

#15

Post by lordnacho »

avenius wrote: post #5
Jhndb wrote: post #3

Just to point out, this article is focused on the US only.

But we do see the same problem in several European cities. For instance there's been some debate about how nurses can't really afford to live in Oslo anymore due to the discrepancy between income and rent.

I've long thought the same about London. How does a teacher, nurse, or policeman rent anywhere within a 60 minute commute?

Probably many delay having a family and are able to share a house, but eventually that's going to get old for a lot of people.

Re: Big Cities No Longer Deliver for Low-Skill Workers

#16

Post by ensiferum »

wonderwonder wrote: post #12

The top 1% of American's own more wealth than the bottom 90% and this concentration is only increasing. Soon no cities regardless of size will deliver for low skilled workers as there will simply not be enough of the proverbial pie to go around. As wealth is concentrated and rents and property values rise the vast majority of this country will (does?) live paycheck to paycheck. This is unsustainable and will either n…

In some American cities the streets are already filled with homeless. For example in Miami and San Francisco.

Re: Big Cities No Longer Deliver for Low-Skill Workers

#17

Post by abakker »

jnbiche wrote: post #14
netcan wrote: post #10

" middle-class life to those without a college degree " Anytime you start delving into what has changed for a subset of people, over decades, the most important piece of the puzzle is decided ding who qualifies for the subset. I mean concepts like "middle class" or "without a college degree." A lot more people get degrees, in 2018. Does the graduates/nongraduates segment still represent a comparable group of people?…

> It turned out, college was partly a proxy for class. What college grad earnings in the 60s was actually saying is that upper-middle class kids grow into upper-middle class adults. I think this is a critical observation that lots of people--including some economists--have missed.

I've heard this said in another, less correct way: "the real number of 1960s equivalent college graduates has never changed, its just become harder to find them based on a label". But, broadly, I've heard a lot of acknowledgement for this. If the education is right, but the cultural trappings are not, then suddenly the education isn't the issue.

Re: Big Cities No Longer Deliver for Low-Skill Workers

#18

Post by pointillistic »

In fact traditional industries had many workers that were "high skilled" craftsmen. They might not had a degree but were "high skilled". It is these craftsmen that were systematically replaced in the market by the low skilled labor, often immigrant labor.

Re: Big Cities No Longer Deliver for Low-Skill Workers

#19

Post by Bucephalus355 »

netcan wrote: post #10

" middle-class life to those without a college degree " Anytime you start delving into what has changed for a subset of people, over decades, the most important piece of the puzzle is decided ding who qualifies for the subset. I mean concepts like "middle class" or "without a college degree." A lot more people get degrees, in 2018. Does the graduates/nongraduates segment still represent a comparable group of people?…

You make very good points above.

I really enjoyed college, especially my liberal arts classes.

That being said, with AWS Certs going for between $75-$300 how long do colleges think they can survive?

If you were a 22 yr old who studied from zero-level computing knowledge for 12 months and got the AWS Solutions Architect Pro cert (somewhat possible assuming 2 hours / day) I can already guarantee you’d receive a written offer for 100k plus within days from my current company (in Texas so that’s quite a bit of money).

Again don’t think colleges are going to compete well against that.

Last thing, here in Texas high schools can now issue Associate Degrees usually. Also the whole model of high school has shifted from test-focused to job-placement focus. Starting this year you can get an Associates in cybersecurity out of high school...

Re: Big Cities No Longer Deliver for Low-Skill Workers

#20

Post by abakker »

collyw wrote: post #8
llukas wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Which is being enabled by increasing levels of tax evasion. FTFY. Automation and efficiency is a good thing.

Not for the unskilled workers out of a job.

Or, critically as another comment a few days ago put it, "automation crowds out those who are just starting their careers, more than those who have already started". Automation can easily prevent you from entering the workplace and moving from low-skill to high skill through experience.
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