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Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

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Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#331

Post by dropit_sphere »

tenaciousDaniel wrote: post #73
TeMPOraL wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think programmers tend to underestimate the difficulties involved with becoming a good programmer because once you're good, you only see the even steeper learning curve ahead of you. Good programmers I know also overestimate the skill needed to earn high salary in this job. You don't have to go up the learning curve much; these days, you just learn yourself JS a little bit and go for a webdev job, making shit cod…

Ironically, knowing that I can get a good salary with relatively shit skills makes me want to up my game. Because it seems like a situation that is inherently unstable. Eventually it has to change (imo), either through companies becoming more scrupulous in their hiring, or through a massive flood of new devs.

I think it will be a massive flood of new devs (maybe we're in it now?) -> overvalued tech stocks -> crash -> stricter hiring.

It's not that tech, even done by shitty devs, isn't valuable. It's a question of whether the market can control itself, which I'm pretty sure is no.

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#332

Post by mrep »

drdeadringer wrote: post #228
akhilcacharya wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Each FAANG will have on average, 10k engineers? That's..really low. FB has around that many, Google has like 50k, and from what I've heard Amazon has about the same number or more. Considering that everyone I know got >= $100k base out of undergrad regardless of location I don't think it's as uncommon as you would think anymore.

> Google has like 50k Does this include the now >50% TVC "non-headcount" as recently reported?

No, they have about 100,000 full time employees of which about 50% are engineers. They have another ~100,000 TVC's

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#333

Post by utopcell »

The comparison is between senior (5-10 years of experience) positions at FAANG, not all software companies, and doctors over all hospitals. How much do doctors make at the top 5 hospitals after 5 years ? How about top lawyers ?

In terms of job difficulty, I see no argument there: I can't imagine the stress a surgeon has during an operation; especially compared to a computer scientist such as myself.

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#334

Post by shams93 »

shantanubala wrote: post #9

I think programmers tend to underestimate the difficulties involved with becoming a good programmer because once you're good, you only see the even steeper learning curve ahead of you. Some of the smartest people I know work in other domains: biology, chemistry, and even physics. They are sometimes baffled by tasks that seem trivial to me, and I'm under no impression that I'm more intelligent than them. I simply spec…

Most programmers are not that well compensated. I never made more than 120k a year tops, I'm almost 50 years old. Not everyone is young and pretty and attractive to the Googles. The number of employers who compensate like this are tiny you can count them on one or two hands. 98% of programmers never make more than 100k. With nearly 30 years experience I build things that would bill out to $160,000 a month for an outside team to produce, but I live in an 80 square foot roach infested apartment and can't afford a car.

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#335

Post by analog31 »

shantanubala wrote: post #9

I think programmers tend to underestimate the difficulties involved with becoming a good programmer because once you're good, you only see the even steeper learning curve ahead of you. Some of the smartest people I know work in other domains: biology, chemistry, and even physics. They are sometimes baffled by tasks that seem trivial to me, and I'm under no impression that I'm more intelligent than them. I simply spec…

Oddly enough, I think learning to program is easy, but only for a few people. And those are the people who are motivated to learn it as an end unto itself.

I was motivated because my older brother, and my mom, had already learned how to program, and they were quite excited about it. After getting past a few familiar conceptual hurdles, it became very easy for me to learn programming myself.

People who are only motivated by the money, or under pressure from others, have a harder time, because their curiosity and drive aren't activated. There's some sort of valve that lets the knowledge into your brain, that has to be opened.

For the most part, the people I know who seem to be motivated by money itself are not so desirous of getting rich per se (many are already rich), but are actually interested and curious about money in the way that I was curious about programming.

I don't program for a living today, but my ability to program is definitely a force multiplier for my work. It has either improved my earnings, or improved the continuity and longevity of my career.

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#336

Post by Jorge1o1 »

organsnyder wrote: post #210
onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So then when are doctors going to start making less? And investment bankers, too?

Doctors are already seeing commoditization as healthcare systems consolidate and adopt standardized workflows (aided by EHR implementations). And nurse practitioners and physicians assistants are doing much of the work once done exclusively by doctors, but with less training and lower pay. It wouldn't surprise me if index funds have caused a decline in earnings for investment bankers.

Yeah, but the relatively poor performance of index funds in 2018 (no gainz) will lead to capital flowing back to ibanks and hedfe funds

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#337

Post by dpau »

shams93 wrote: post #334
shantanubala wrote: post #9

I think programmers tend to underestimate the difficulties involved with becoming a good programmer because once you're good, you only see the even steeper learning curve ahead of you. Some of the smartest people I know work in other domains: biology, chemistry, and even physics. They are sometimes baffled by tasks that seem trivial to me, and I'm under no impression that I'm more intelligent than them. I simply spec…

Most programmers are not that well compensated. I never made more than 120k a year tops, I'm almost 50 years old. Not everyone is young and pretty and attractive to the Googles. The number of employers who compensate like this are tiny you can count them on one or two hands. 98% of programmers never make more than 100k. With nearly 30 years experience I build things that would bill out to $160,000 a month for an outs…

If your work is that valuable then perhaps you’re selling yourself short? In my 40s now and have definitely encountered age discrimination but found remote work once I updated my skills. I hope you get out of that dump!

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#338

Post by stackzero »

I think the high wages are due to a lack of understanding from non-programmers. Non-technical folk see it as scary or hard to understand so would rather pay someone else to handle that stuff. We're on the inside looking out, not everyone wants to understand. As I'm sure we're all familiar with- i.e. the conversation killer of explaining our day job or even mentioning I'm in software/IT/programming etc.

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#339

Post by icedchai »

dmd wrote: post #327
icedchai wrote: post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Take a guess when Windows 1.0 was released.

> "software in 1985 was more "complete" than today. Even CD roms shipped with magazines had to support more windows variations than "good software" There was one variation of Windows in 1985. (And I remember installing it!)

Yes, but in your previous comment, you said it didn't exist. It may as well not have! Almost nobody used Windows 1.0...

Still, in 1985, even DOS apps had to target varied environments: mono, CGA, EGA, Tandy graphics, different memory configurations, 8088 or 286, printer drivers...

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#340

Post by zappo2938 »

devoply wrote: post #21
shantanubala wrote: post #9

I think programmers tend to underestimate the difficulties involved with becoming a good programmer because once you're good, you only see the even steeper learning curve ahead of you. Some of the smartest people I know work in other domains: biology, chemistry, and even physics. They are sometimes baffled by tasks that seem trivial to me, and I'm under no impression that I'm more intelligent than them. I simply spec…

If anything good programmers are underpaid. If you are making your company a mil, you should be getting 1/2.

It's a team effort. I stopped trying to get software projects off the ground by myself
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