"But the fact that it’s only happened in the last 5-10 years makes me wonder if it will last forever."
This is absolutely false. There was a lot of talk about "Microsoft Millionaires" in the 80s and 90s.
Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?
191–200 of 407 posts
Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?
#192I think programmers tend to underestimate the difficulties involved with becoming a good programmer because once you're good, you only see the even steeper learning curve ahead of you. Some of the smartest people I know work in other domains: biology, chemistry, and even physics. They are sometimes baffled by tasks that seem trivial to me, and I'm under no impression that I'm more intelligent than them. I simply spec…
If anything good programmers are underpaid. If you are making your company a mil, you should be getting 1/2.
Sarcasm works really well in a text-only format!
Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?
#193My take on this is that: yes, a small minority of devs are substantially overpaid for their work right now. I don't think it will stop, since even if there is a glut of new developers, the ones with production experience at scale will always stand out from the fresh devs, and will be more prized for that reason. What may end up happening is the funnel narrowing at entry, that is the salaries for brand new developers…
What does it mean to be overpaid? There are certainly professions that provide more overall value to the world than software engineering and yet make less money. So in a sense you could say every software engineer is overpaid. Otherwise what does this mean?
Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?
#194"But the fact that it’s only happened in the last 5-10 years makes me wonder if it will last forever." This is absolutely false. There was a lot of talk about "Microsoft Millionaires" in the 80s and 90s.
Early employees who cash out are a bit different than the rank and file.
Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?
#195Earlier quoted context omitted.
I have not noticed these technical shifts per se. What I have noticed is that mature engineers move on and do other things and new ones reinvent the wheel with some new fancy language or term which then becomes the new way of doing things, and the cycle repeats. Sometimes there is a great deal of value when a new level of abstraction happens but I wouldnt call this a shift, it's just progression. Many of the underlyi…
When I talk about shifts, I'm referring to things like the proliferation of smartphones and tablets, which increase the net-demand for software and along with an entirely new specializations of knowledge. While there are some key concepts to things like databases, the fact remains that your 1985 database would not be considered sufficient in todays world: It would have too many limitations, lack features we now take…
"When I talk about shifts, I'm referring to things like the proliferation of smartphones and tablets, which increase the net-demand for software and along with an entirely new specializations of knowledge."
iOS was basically AppKit, so anyone already developing for the Mac knew most of what they needed to know to develop for iPhone.
Pretty much every programming innovation is incremental, and doesn't require throwing out all of your previous knowledge and starting over.
Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?
#196Earlier quoted context omitted.
Lawyers have been around for a while, there doesn't seem to be a shortage of them, and the average salary is still relatively high. However the distribution of starting salaries has trended towards being bimodal ( https://www.nalp.org/salarydistrib ). I could imagine the same thing happening for programmers over time, if it hasn't already.
I think barrier to entry for lawyers is way higher than for programming.
Can you imagine hiring a self-taught lawyer?
Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?
#197Earlier quoted context omitted.
> we are looking at the top 1% of software engineers Working for a big company that pays well does not mean you're at the top 1% of software engineers. It means you're willing to do what it takes to secure that job and maintain it, including moving somewhere many don't want to live.
It means you're in the top 1% of software engineers in the only metric that matters.
Not really, I rather be paid less but work remote and have more freedom with my time and where I work.
Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?
#198How many software engineers are truly making over $300k as a rank-and-file? Let's be generous and say there's about a dozen or so companies that routinely pay engineers that well. Each FAANG will have on average, 10k engineers? So that's around 120,000 out of an estimated ~20 million developers (from a quick google search). That's around 0.6% earning pay in a "bubble" situation, the rest being senior folks or executi…
Let's put it another way: we are looking at the top 1% of software engineers. Is it surprising that they have incomes in the 1% range? For comparison, in Amazon, Senior and above engineers count for ~20% of the total, and those are the ones pulling +300k regularly. So only the top 20% of one of the top companies are getting such compensation. And to follow the article, this won't last forever. Whenever the next stock…
Less. Closer to 10%
Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?
#199Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I think programmers tend to underestimate the difficulties involved with becoming a good programmer because once you're good, you only see the even steeper learning curve ahead of you. Good programmers I know also overestimate the skill needed to earn high salary in this job. You don't have to go up the learning curve much; these days, you just learn yourself JS a little bit and go for a webdev job, making shit cod…
> Nah, that's like wondering why is this ice block sitting on a hot plate and still solid. The answer is: because it just got put there, and it'll melt in a moment. So too, will end high salaries, as most low-hanging fruits get eaten by software, made by mass-produced cohort of programmers. Our industry has its share of cycles, but this, in my view, is largely wishful thinking on the part of people. Nothing wrong wit…
> inches upward
I wish it inched upward... So much software now-days is bloated crap.
Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?
#200Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Nah, that's like wondering why is this ice block sitting on a hot plate and still solid. The answer is: because it just got put there, and it'll melt in a moment. So too, will end high salaries, as most low-hanging fruits get eaten by software, made by mass-produced cohort of programmers. Our industry has its share of cycles, but this, in my view, is largely wishful thinking on the part of people. Nothing wrong wit…
your whole point is extremely backwards! software in 1985 was more "complete" than today. Even CD roms shipped with magazines had to support more windows variations than "good software" today supports of browsers! not to mention that every corporation with a software team also had usability and QA teams. Software quality and resiliency was much better than today. Then in the 90s it took a dive because online made "fi…
Agreed, and the games industry may be the clearest example of this. In 1985 the developers had to actually ship a finished game, there wasn't the opportunity to release a half-finished product and update it later. Compare to Fallout 76, which was very clearly unfinished at launch.
Edit:typo