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Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

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Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#141

Post by sct202 »

sharkweek wrote: post #15

I dunno about a bubble, implying it will pop in some catastrophic way. But will market forces correct the above average salary? I think so. More young students than ever are learning to code, which is naturally going to increase the labor pool. The supply of software engineers is going to go up in the next 10-20 years (as will the demand, though! But I still think supply will outpace). This seems like it would mostly…

Total med school enrollment is constrained by the number of residencies and supposedly the AMA. Meanwhile, the numbers of grads for other health professionals (Nurse Practitioners and Physician Assistants) that can fill some of the same roles as doctors has skyrocketed.

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#142

Post by zjaffee »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #25
shantanubala wrote: post #9

I think programmers tend to underestimate the difficulties involved with becoming a good programmer because once you're good, you only see the even steeper learning curve ahead of you. Some of the smartest people I know work in other domains: biology, chemistry, and even physics. They are sometimes baffled by tasks that seem trivial to me, and I'm under no impression that I'm more intelligent than them. I simply spec…

> I think programmers tend to underestimate the difficulties involved with becoming a good programmer because once you're good, you only see the even steeper learning curve ahead of you. Good programmers I know also overestimate the skill needed to earn high salary in this job. You don't have to go up the learning curve much; these days, you just learn yourself JS a little bit and go for a webdev job, making shit cod…

Except the high salaries won't end given the level of productivity found within the technology industry. Tech companies as it stands today are some of the most profitable companies out there, it's this profit that enables them to further compete for talent and pay people more.

The same highly productive nature per employee is found in virtually every other high paying industry, most of which have not seen the pay for the higher end of those in the industry fall over time.

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#143

Post by rhacker »

duderific wrote: post #92
jjeaff wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a bubble on salaries in the Bay area. Only because of the real estate bubble that has been artificially created there. It will eventually burst as more companies will seek to hire in cheaper areas.

There is nothing artificial about the real estate "bubble" in the Bay Area. Prices are set by supply and demand, both in salaries and real estate. Real estate prices are high, because the Bay Area is a very desirable place to live, there are people who can and will pay the high price, and the supply of housing is low. Salaries are high because big companies are fighting for talent (demand), and the supply of talent i…

You missed last week - available housing stock has started to grow.

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#144

Post by jdmoreira »

Tade0 wrote: post #37
jdmoreira wrote: post #4

Well. I live in Sweden and I don't make anywhere close to these values. Not even remotely close. I have been programming for 12 years and I like to think I'm not half bad at it. So is peak programming just in the valley or should I be worried as well?

Poland, 7 years, less than $50k here. If there's any bubble then I don't think it'll affect the "value proposition" that we ultimately are.

$50k in Poland? Not bad!

This is from payscale.com:

Average Mid-Career Software Developer Salary in Stockholm $61,262

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#145

Post by qdog »

jdmoreira wrote: post #4

Well. I live in Sweden and I don't make anywhere close to these values. Not even remotely close. I have been programming for 12 years and I like to think I'm not half bad at it. So is peak programming just in the valley or should I be worried as well?

California is a fairly unique place, even in the U.S. Despite the costs of living there, it continues to attract talent and investment. The job market there is very fluid, as you can work for a competitor or start your own competitor, due to not allowing non-compete clauses to be enforced.

I don't know the laws in Sweden, but unless they have an environment similar to California the tech industry is not going to be as strong.

That said, at least for me in the U.S., the biggest bump in pay has always been from finding a new job offer.

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#146

Post by simonh »

devoply wrote: post #21
shantanubala wrote: post #9

I think programmers tend to underestimate the difficulties involved with becoming a good programmer because once you're good, you only see the even steeper learning curve ahead of you. Some of the smartest people I know work in other domains: biology, chemistry, and even physics. They are sometimes baffled by tasks that seem trivial to me, and I'm under no impression that I'm more intelligent than them. I simply spec…

If anything good programmers are underpaid. If you are making your company a mil, you should be getting 1/2.

The usual ratio for top flight talent in the finance industry is 10:1. A trader makes JPMorganStanleyofAmerica $5m, they get $500k compensation. That seems reasonable because there’s a direct line between talent and profit. Even so someone had to build the business, capitalise it, create the business opportunities and relationships, train and support the trader and assume all of the risk.

How much of the business risk of the enterprise is your top flight programmer assuming? Are her decisions the only ones that make any difference to the increase in profitability as a result of her work? How direct is the line between back room engineer, no matter how good and profit?

The only case where 50% or near it makes sense is for a founder owner who is also the lead talent. Maybe. Because then they are also creating the business opportunity and assuming a big chunk of the risk.

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#147

Post by nostrademons »

convolvatron wrote: post #117
spamizbad wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When I talk about shifts, I'm referring to things like the proliferation of smartphones and tablets, which increase the net-demand for software and along with an entirely new specializations of knowledge. While there are some key concepts to things like databases, the fact remains that your 1985 database would not be considered sufficient in todays world: It would have too many limitations, lack features we now take…

i'll just leave this here https://books.google.com/books/about/Distributed_Databases.h...

MongoDB didn't become a public company through innovations in fundamental distributed database technology or even through good engineering. They became a public company because once Javascript became adequate for building client software, there was a strong incentive to build MVPs using the same data structures from client to server to DB, and once you build an MVP that gets adoption there's a strong incentive not to switch databases.

That's the sort of shift in the environment that the grandparent is talking about. Fundamental CS tech was arguably better in the 1970s and 1980s, because it moved more slowly and you had time to get the details right. That doesn't matter if you're building say a mobile Ethereum wallet in 2018, because you're building for the user expectations of today, they don't care about data integrity or security as long as it doesn't fail during the period where they're deciding which tech to use, and software that solves the problem (poorly) now is better than software that doesn't exist.

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#148

Post by esoterica »

howard941 wrote: post #107
rch wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lawyers have been around for a while, there doesn't seem to be a shortage of them, and the average salary is still relatively high. However the distribution of starting salaries has trended towards being bimodal ( https://www.nalp.org/salarydistrib ). I could imagine the same thing happening for programmers over time, if it hasn't already.

I'd counsel caution in relying on those charts because, inter alia, they're self-reported salaries and the very nature of the report excludes unemployed bar members.

Big law salaries are widely known because all the top firms pay in lockstep. The big spike to the right is 100% accurate.

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#149

Post by fbonetti »

duderific wrote: post #92
jjeaff wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a bubble on salaries in the Bay area. Only because of the real estate bubble that has been artificially created there. It will eventually burst as more companies will seek to hire in cheaper areas.

There is nothing artificial about the real estate "bubble" in the Bay Area. Prices are set by supply and demand, both in salaries and real estate. Real estate prices are high, because the Bay Area is a very desirable place to live, there are people who can and will pay the high price, and the supply of housing is low. Salaries are high because big companies are fighting for talent (demand), and the supply of talent i…

The thing that makes it a bubble is that the supply is artificially constrained by local zoning laws. Eventually people will be fed up with the situation and they'll vote for a government that'll allow more development, at which point housing prices will plummet.

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#150

Post by dentemple »

mac01021 wrote: post #30
dentemple wrote: post #7

Working at a FAANG Corp is the bubble.

So you're saying it's not sustainable?

I'm saying that someone who works at one of those companies is living in a bubble.

Most of us don't make such extreme salaries. But also, most of us don't worry that our paychecks will suddenly pop.

If anything, most devs outside of SV and Seattle are underpaid rather than overpaid.

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