Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#1

Post by swimorsinka » Mon, Jan 21, 2019, 3:58 PM UTC

Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?
thinkfaster.co

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#2

Post by cheez » Mon, Jan 21, 2019, 4:36 PM UTC

As someone who hires programmers, no. It is difficult to hire good people. The only way I can successfully hire low-cost programmers is by building a system/machine for creating and releasing software that does not require a high level of intelligence/creativity. The only people that can make high margins in programming-heavy industries are those who can do this or some sort of defensible moat.

As a programmer myself, yes. There is no way I can continue to make this much. I'm a dumbass. (I say this having worked on, in the last year, a compiler, trading algorithms, and 3D object analysis)

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#3

Post by tinktank » Mon, Jan 21, 2019, 4:38 PM UTC

I didn't understand the bit of the refresher grant. If his grant is $50K a year on joining, wouldn't it be 50K a year on refresh? Or is he making the point that as you remain you get more refresher stock?

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#4

Post by jdmoreira » Mon, Jan 21, 2019, 4:38 PM UTC

Well. I live in Sweden and I don't make anywhere close to these values. Not even remotely close. I have been programming for 12 years and I like to think I'm not half bad at it.

So is peak programming just in the valley or should I be worried as well?

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#5

Post by paulsutter » Mon, Jan 21, 2019, 4:39 PM UTC

If you’re writing software used by billion people, your employer can probably afford to pay you more than if you’re writing software used by a million people. Or 100,000, or 1000, or 10 people.

Market multiples will go through ups and downs, and they’re high now for the major tech companies, but it’s not entirely surprising that the major companies pay well.

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#6

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Jan 21, 2019, 4:40 PM UTC

[deleted]

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#7

Post by dentemple » Mon, Jan 21, 2019, 4:40 PM UTC

Working at a FAANG Corp is the bubble.

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#8

Post by eloisant » Mon, Jan 21, 2019, 4:42 PM UTC

jdmoreira wrote: post #4

Well. I live in Sweden and I don't make anywhere close to these values. Not even remotely close. I have been programming for 12 years and I like to think I'm not half bad at it. So is peak programming just in the valley or should I be worried as well?

There's the Valley, and in the Valley there's FAANG (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google).

You don't make $400k if you work in an anonymous startup, even in Silicon Valley.

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#9

Post by shantanubala » Mon, Jan 21, 2019, 4:44 PM UTC

I think programmers tend to underestimate the difficulties involved with becoming a good programmer because once you're good, you only see the even steeper learning curve ahead of you.

Some of the smartest people I know work in other domains: biology, chemistry, and even physics. They are sometimes baffled by tasks that seem trivial to me, and I'm under no impression that I'm more intelligent than them. I simply specialized and focused only on programming, while they program to accomplish other tasks in their domain of expertise.

Can this last forever? Of course not, nothing lasts forever. But wondering why the wealthiest corporations in the world pay their workers high salaries is perhaps like wondering why water is wet. Software has a low marginal cost, and the rest is basic incentives for the corporations.

Re: Are We in the Middle of a Programming Bubble?

#10

Post by eloisant » Mon, Jan 21, 2019, 4:45 PM UTC

tinktank wrote: post #3

I didn't understand the bit of the refresher grant. If his grant is $50K a year on joining, wouldn't it be 50K a year on refresh? Or is he making the point that as you remain you get more refresher stock?

Your initial grant is not "$50K a year". It's for example, "200k over 4 years". And it's not actually in USD, it's in number of stocks. So if the GOOG stock is $1000, your grant would be "200 stocks vesting over 4 years".

Now when you get a promotion, you'll get a new set of stocks vesting over 4 years. If you get the promotion before the 4 years expire (usually the case) it will overlap with your initial grant.