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Investing Prophet Jeremy Grantham Takes Aim at Climate Change

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Re: Investing Prophet Jeremy Grantham Takes Aim at Climate Change

#81

Post by dragonwriter »

AceJohnny2 wrote: post #67
lordnacho wrote: post #63

As a former fund manager, I found his description of current capitalism quite close to my own. Particularly the bit where he says markets are good at a lot of stuff, but not everything. Has anyone else had that sort of intellectual journey, where you discover libertarianism, you learn all the tropes, you feel very confident, and then after a while you pull back a bit after finding a few issues? And I suppose on the o…

> Has anyone else had that sort of intellectual journey, where you discover libertarianism, you learn all the tropes, you feel very confident, and then after a while you pull back a bit after finding a few issues? And I suppose on the other side of the spectrum as well? For most people, that transition happens between the teenage years and adulthood.

> For most people, that transition happens between the teenage years and adulthood.

No, I don't think it does. Certainly, you'll often encounter people going through the first phase of it (the discovery of and infatuation with libertarianism) in, say, the first couple years of college, but I don't think most people go through the whole arc (or even the first part) at all, much less most people going through it in the age window you describe.

Re: Investing Prophet Jeremy Grantham Takes Aim at Climate Change

#82

Post by radicalbyte »

gdubs wrote: post #72
dhh2106 wrote: post #2

>With topsoil disappearing at a rate of 1 percent a year and “only 30 to 70 good harvest years left depending on your location,” Well, that's definitely a scary framing. Does anyone have sources for this specific prediction? Aside from launching his (for-profit) climate fund, (for-profit) vc investments, and funding research, I'd be very interested in more details on how the money will be used.

“Tree Crops: A Permanent Agriculture”, by Russel Smith (1929) is an excellent, well sourced book on the subject. The title also hints at the origin of the term “permaculture”, popularized by Bill Mollison. There’s a lot of solid scientific evidence out there for soil repair as carbon sequestration; in fact the appendix of the IPCC report that shook the world last year lists soil repair as one of the top things we can…

I was just about to post something similar. From what I've been reading, fully optimized land management can both sequester an enormous amount of carbon and provide better crop yields.

Re: Investing Prophet Jeremy Grantham Takes Aim at Climate Change

#83

Post by ham_sandwich »

buboard wrote: post #59
sigmaprimus wrote: post #49

Just as vast fortunes were made during the financial crisis of 2008 by selling the markets short ( see the film "The Big Short") I would expect there are people betting on climate change continuing down its current tragectory, and these people now have a vested interest in making this happen. I don't know how many other billionaires are putting their money on the pro climate change side but wouldn't a smart investor…

Even shorters need to make their gains from someone else . You are assuming that there are many people betting that climate change will not happen ? I think it’s safe to assume that climate change has been priced into the market.

I often wonder how much climate change is priced in. If climate change is a given, wouldn’t we see it reflected e.g. in the implied vols of super long-dated options or real estate in Miami? VCs would be placing bets like crazy on solutions. Markets just don’t seem to be assimilating this info to me. Wonder if there have been any formal studies on this.

Re: Investing Prophet Jeremy Grantham Takes Aim at Climate Change

#84

Post by scarejunba »

holografix wrote: post #77
Pharmakon wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Logically speaking this amounts to betting that the Titanic will sink on its maiden voyage, while you’re stuck on the Titanic.

No, it’s betting the titanic will sink while you know you’ll be dead before it starts sinking.

Haha, man, would that be a terrible way for the human race to go. Driven to extinction just because a few men really only cared about their own lifetimes. It would be highly amusing.

Re: Investing Prophet Jeremy Grantham Takes Aim at Climate Change

#85

Post by multjoy »

sigmaprimus wrote: post #58
joshu wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Incorrect. Arbitrage is risklessly taking advantage of contemporaneous price differences by buying in one place and selling in another at the same time.

OK, but I still stand behind my premise. Bookies make money regardless by which team wins. Casinos show profits betting on red and black simultaneously because of the zeros. And it happens all the time in much more complex way in markets. Also the financial term I was thinking of I believe is called "Futures" and it is used to protect against large swings in currency values between countries. Inverters exploit this t…

Bookies make money because they run the game.

Re: Investing Prophet Jeremy Grantham Takes Aim at Climate Change

#86

Post by klenwell »

sigmaprimus wrote: post #80

I have reread this article as some of the comments made me question whether or not I understood it or not. I had assumed that Jeremy Grantham was investing his wealth to save the planet, this was the conclusion that the author presents at the end of the article under the title "Bottom Line". But this is not necessarily the case, Mr. Grantham is investing in technology that will show a profit because of climate change…

> Mr. Grantham is investing in technology that will show a profit because of climate change, it is a subtle difference but an important one to consider, sort of the grain of salt that should be taken with reading of the article.

I bookmarked this NY Times article years ago:

"Can Jeremy Grantham Profit From Ecological Mayhem?"

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/14/magazine/can-jeremy-granth...

That title puts his position in a bit different light. I haven't read this one yet but it would be interesting I guess to diff the two articles to see what has changed over the past 7-8 years.

Re: Investing Prophet Jeremy Grantham Takes Aim at Climate Change

#87

Post by ham_sandwich »

sigmaprimus wrote: post #58
joshu wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Incorrect. Arbitrage is risklessly taking advantage of contemporaneous price differences by buying in one place and selling in another at the same time.

OK, but I still stand behind my premise. Bookies make money regardless by which team wins. Casinos show profits betting on red and black simultaneously because of the zeros. And it happens all the time in much more complex way in markets. Also the financial term I was thinking of I believe is called "Futures" and it is used to protect against large swings in currency values between countries. Inverters exploit this t…

I think you’re specifically thinking of covered interest rate arbitrage, in which a trader borrows in one currency at a cheap rate, lends in another currency at a more expensive rate and uses a currency forward to hedge out the exchange rate risk, netting the rate differential in the process. It’s not truly ‘arbitrage’ in the formal sense;there are still some notable risks in such a trade.

Re: Investing Prophet Jeremy Grantham Takes Aim at Climate Change

#88

Post by [deleted] »

sigmaprimus wrote: post #58
joshu wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Incorrect. Arbitrage is risklessly taking advantage of contemporaneous price differences by buying in one place and selling in another at the same time.

OK, but I still stand behind my premise. Bookies make money regardless by which team wins. Casinos show profits betting on red and black simultaneously because of the zeros. And it happens all the time in much more complex way in markets. Also the financial term I was thinking of I believe is called "Futures" and it is used to protect against large swings in currency values between countries. Inverters exploit this t…

[deleted]

Re: Investing Prophet Jeremy Grantham Takes Aim at Climate Change

#89

Post by clairity »

ham_sandwich wrote: post #70
clairity wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yes, but that severely limits your upside, and it’s harder to thread the needle (in both timing and pricing).

In a straddle/strangle you have unlimited upside on both legs (up and down/call and put). It’s a matter of determining if the long gamma+long volatility position is worth the price you pay in option premium up front and decay thereafter (theta).

that's true, and a more complete explanation.

i was taking the practical view that in most cases, the underlying options are reasonably priced and volatility is not highly unusual, so the practical upside is small at best. it's easy for the non-professional investor to lose money on these because you really need some extraodinary non-public information to exploit them.

Re: Investing Prophet Jeremy Grantham Takes Aim at Climate Change

#90

Post by kevinskii »

kbenson wrote: post #74
makerofspoons wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are solutions to this- driving through eastern Colorado and west Kansas you'll find many farmers using no-till techniques and planting winter cover-crops that create topsoil and increase soil quality. Farmers have a vested economic interest in keeping the soil productive. Meanwhile from what I understand from talking with some friends in agricultural engineering in places like California where farmers expect to…

> in places like California where farmers expect to be pushed off their land eventually by rising land prices they are using destructive practices to extract as much as they can before they go defunct. Assuming the land is going to be used for non-agricultural uses (residential/commercia, covered in some material in some way) and "destructive practices" means over-farming, but not otherwise polluting or causing damag…

There may be a tiny minority of farms in pristine locations that will eventually get pushed off their land, but I suspect the vast majority are in areas where the land is absolutely undesirable for anything besides farming. If you've ever driven across California's central valley you'll know what I mean.
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