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A Fifth of China’s Homes Are Empty (2018)

bloomberg.com

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Re: A Fifth of China’s Homes Are Empty (2018)

#21

Post by gonehome »

I wonder if part of this is a cultural thing and I'm not sure if apartments count as homes.

I've heard from friends in the bay area that immigrated from China that buying a house is a prerequisite for a man to get married (so family often helps since bay area housing is crazy).

Supposedly this leads to distortions in the Chinese market where rental units are relatively cheap, but purchasing costs are very high.

Maybe an apartment doesn't meet the marriage requirement for a housing purchase?

Re: A Fifth of China’s Homes Are Empty (2018)

#22

Post by FooHentai »

hodder wrote: post #19

While problematic in the short term, the scale of urbanization and decreasing domicile density alongside rising GDP/capita will allow China to eat through the slack inventory in the coming years. They are adding about 1 NY metropolitan area worth of urban dwellers per yr: https://www.statista.com/statistics/278566/urban-and-rural-p... Urban region Rural regions 2017 813.47 576.61 2016 792.98 589.73 2015 771.16 603.46…

Maybe, if you consider that trend line to be a stable one that'll just keep progressing upwards on the chart. But that doesn't seem to be a sure thing.

Also, the state of some of these buildings is worth noting - Much like Nail Houses, there's a significant portion of these developments that were made to sell for investment purposes alone, and are not going to be suitable for habitation.

Re: A Fifth of China’s Homes Are Empty (2018)

#23

Post by droopyEyelids »

hodder wrote: post #19

While problematic in the short term, the scale of urbanization and decreasing domicile density alongside rising GDP/capita will allow China to eat through the slack inventory in the coming years. They are adding about 1 NY metropolitan area worth of urban dwellers per yr: https://www.statista.com/statistics/278566/urban-and-rural-p... Urban region Rural regions 2017 813.47 576.61 2016 792.98 589.73 2015 771.16 603.46…

Dont forget there are nearly a billion people who will have to migrate out of low-lying areas on the east of India/bangladesh over the next few decades as sea levels continue to rise.

China is wise to have extra housing capacity. Even if they are 'nail houses' ... they only have to beat sleeping in the streets.

Re: A Fifth of China’s Homes Are Empty (2018)

#26

Post by swuecho »

gonehome wrote: post #21

I wonder if part of this is a cultural thing and I'm not sure if apartments count as homes. I've heard from friends in the bay area that immigrated from China that buying a house is a prerequisite for a man to get married (so family often helps since bay area housing is crazy). Supposedly this leads to distortions in the Chinese market where rental units are relatively cheap, but purchasing costs are very high. Maybe…

school are allocated based on house. rental apartment does not cout.

Re: A Fifth of China’s Homes Are Empty (2018)

#27

Post by maxander »

No mention of the “ghost city” effect? [0] A good hypothesis for why there’s so much unoccupied housing is that it’s all in regions where the demand is slim, that were nonetheless highly developed due to various political factors.

[0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Under-occupied_developments_...

Re: A Fifth of China’s Homes Are Empty (2018)

#28

Post by mchannon »

OscarCunningham wrote: post #24

It doesn't make much economic sense that these houses are empty. Why not rent them out or sell them for whatever the market will bear?

First three rules of real estate: location, location, location.

Would you be interested in renting a 400 sf dilapidated teardown shack in western Kansas, no utilities, five hours from the nearest big city, no local jobs, and not near anything of consequence?

As young Chinese flock to the large cities, they might have grown up in something similar to the above, but just because they're leaving it behind doesn't take it out of the housing stock.

That's perhaps a bit of an oversimplification, but a good number of that double digit percent is abandoning the rural lifestyle held over from the cultural revolution.

Re: A Fifth of China’s Homes Are Empty (2018)

#29

Post by justicezyx »

hodder wrote: post #19

While problematic in the short term, the scale of urbanization and decreasing domicile density alongside rising GDP/capita will allow China to eat through the slack inventory in the coming years. They are adding about 1 NY metropolitan area worth of urban dwellers per yr: https://www.statista.com/statistics/278566/urban-and-rural-p... Urban region Rural regions 2017 813.47 576.61 2016 792.98 589.73 2015 771.16 603.46…

Yes, I can guarantee from my personal seeing of my home village that the government indeed can mobilize people moving into apartments in city.

Now I look back, China really will be the next super power. The management and controlling are simply on a different dimension.

Re: A Fifth of China’s Homes Are Empty (2018)

#30

Post by lthoang »

joe_the_user wrote: post #3
politician wrote: post #2

I guess what's surprising to me here is that in a nation of 1.5B people, they only have 250M homes.

That surprised me also but that is 6 people per home. Considering the institution of the extended family is probably not completely dead, that doesn't seem altogether implausible. Edit: Given this - it seems like China might be able to more easily absorb this many apartments being put on the market. One could imagine a lot of people entering a modern world where they wouldn't live with their parents (or child).

My Vietnamese home has 6 people. mother, father, me and my brother, 2 of my cousins.
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