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Zillow CEO: startups trying to disrupt real estate commissions will fail (2012)

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Re: Zillow CEO: startups trying to disrupt real estate commissions will fail (2012)

#171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems to me that having the commission as a % of the sale price is not the right way to go. You lock in with an agent for 3 months and agree to pay them a set fee when they/you sell it. You should pay as a buyer for an agent to represent you. Currently, if I'm not mistaken, all most all agents get paid by the seller and, if you are a buyer, the agent has no legal responsibility to watch out for your interests. The cu…

You are free to get a buyers agent that does represent you. In that case, the buyer’s agent and seller’s agent split the cost.

I still don't understand this mechanism... the buying agent takes his fee as a percentage of the total house price? Doesn't this mean that both the selling and buying agents are incentivized to drive up the price?

Re: Zillow CEO: startups trying to disrupt real estate commissions will fail (2012)

#172

As a realtor for the past 6 years I can say a couple of quick things as to why I don't see the real estate industry going anywhere, even though I think that real estate brokers are extremely overpaid. - selling your house, at the end of the day, is quite the undertaking. A lot goes into it, it can get emotional, messy, and sometimes quite complicated. Having someone that does it on a daily basis can be nice and reall…

I fail to see how they are overpaid. If someone sells 4 houses per year for 1M for 1.5% fee, that's only $60k per year. That sounds like a mediocre income in markets where houses even go for 1M. I am using numbers for the Bay Area that I have heard of. Maybe other markets are different.

It's more that they are collectively overpaid. As house prices rise the %-based commission causes new agents to flood the market, lowering the number of houses sold per agent. Agents then spend a lot of time acquiring clients in competition with each other.

If you think about what an efficient use of realtor labor would look like it would be ~2 houses a month or more with agents spending all their time on showings and contracts. In a market with $1M houses this would yield roughly 24M * 0.025 = $600K/yr and up.

Hence the market becomes flooded with people that would like to make $600K/yr on a educational investment period of 6 months or less (plus an apprenticeship-like paying job for a few years).

The industry is weird because the price of agent service is resistant to supply&demand forces for various reasons but the main reason is that it's impossible to know what the selling agent's contribution to the house price is, since you can't sell the same house twice under the same conditions.

In principle, a good agent can easily recoup their commission by adding a few percent to the house price, but in practice agents have a counter-incentive to this because the homeowner will never know what the added amount was and raising the house price a small amount adds less to the agent's bottom line than moving on to the next house more quickly. In most cases the agent is simply setting the price that will sell the house quickly for the local market. As a seller, you'd probably prefer to make an extra 20K on that 1M house by showing for a month instead of a week, but this makes the agent do 4x the showings to make 2% more commission.

Ironically, the buyers' mortgage lender will have an impartial professional estimate done after they've already agreed on a price with you. In a perfect world, the seller would get this estimate done up front and then the seller's agent would be be paid on a structure that incentivizes beating that estimate. But wait - if the mortgaged portion of the price is greater than the estimate then the buyer's lender will back out ($collateral Quite the free market, eh?

Re: Zillow CEO: startups trying to disrupt real estate commissions will fail (2012)

#173

Over the last two years I've bought a couple of properties and I see the value of realtors as professional negotiators and experts on real estate laws and contracts. That being said, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and their local branches are the definition of a cartel. My parents owned a real estate agency when I was growing up in the 80s and 90s. Back then, the cost of selling and marketing real estate…

What about services like redfin? They advertise their fee at only 2%.

Re: Zillow CEO: startups trying to disrupt real estate commissions will fail (2012)

#174

As a realtor for the past 6 years I can say a couple of quick things as to why I don't see the real estate industry going anywhere, even though I think that real estate brokers are extremely overpaid. - selling your house, at the end of the day, is quite the undertaking. A lot goes into it, it can get emotional, messy, and sometimes quite complicated. Having someone that does it on a daily basis can be nice and reall…

Seems to me that having the commission as a % of the sale price is not the right way to go. You lock in with an agent for 3 months and agree to pay them a set fee when they/you sell it. You should pay as a buyer for an agent to represent you. Currently, if I'm not mistaken, all most all agents get paid by the seller and, if you are a buyer, the agent has no legal responsibility to watch out for your interests. The cu…

The buyer always pays the cost of both the seller's and buyer's agent in the same way that people who rent apartments do pay property tax. That cost happens to be hidden in the sense that there is no specific charge that the buyer sees but the buyer is the one who ultimately pays it.

Re: Zillow CEO: startups trying to disrupt real estate commissions will fail (2012)

#175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Disclosure: my spouse is a home inspector It's a bit extreme outright dismiss an inspector just because they are recommended by your own agent (there is no reason whatsoever to even ask the selling agent for such advice). After all, you've hired them for their expertise and advice, and they see and know a lot more home inspectors than you. Of course, look at the recommended inspectors and do your own homework, like a…

While the inspector recommended by your agent might be fine, there is an implied incentive/bias for the inspector to help close the sale; The recommending agent is a marketing arm for the inspector; if the wrong deal falls apart because of the inspection, the inspector knows the agent isn't going to get their commission, whether or not that means they'll recommend them with as much fervor the next time can be largely…

The flaw here is in thinking just because you find an inspector on your own that makes a difference in incentives. Who do you think the inspector has the most incentive to impress? The buyer whom they most likely will never see again or the agent who can potentially provide more and more clients?

Re: Zillow CEO: startups trying to disrupt real estate commissions will fail (2012)

#176
As a back-of-the-envelope approximation, if the commission is 6%, and there's at least a 6% chance that having a real estate agent keeps me from doing something stupid on the largest financial transaction I will do in my life, it's worth it. Probably, they do nothing for me I couldn't have done myself, but there is that chance that I would have (for example) bought a house in an area where it could flood, and then not be able to sell it because of that fact.

There may be real estate agents that are not good enough to be doing the job, but a competent one is absolutely worth it for a person who does maybe 1 or 2 house transactions in their lifetime, just for the chance that they might make a really bad decision if they don't have someone experienced to help them think through it.

Re: Zillow CEO: startups trying to disrupt real estate commissions will fail (2012)

#177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The contract that I signed to sell another property specified that the full commission was due from the seller regardless of buyer representation , but that any registered real estate agent working on behalf of the buyer would share equally in the commission, paid by the listing agency. IOW, I don't think it would have been possible, as it wouldn't have been possible in my listing contract. If I thought it was possib…

> The contract that I signed to sell another property specified that the full commission was due from the seller regardless of buyer representation, but that any registered real estate agent working on behalf of the buyer would share equally in the commission, paid by the listing agency. Not anti-competitive, at all...

While I find real estate representation to be an inefficient anachronistic racket overall, I'm not sure that specific term is anti-competitive nor particularly egregious. See my sibling/cousin comment for why I think that.

Re: Zillow CEO: startups trying to disrupt real estate commissions will fail (2012)

#178
post #169

As a realtor for the past 6 years I can say a couple of quick things as to why I don't see the real estate industry going anywhere, even though I think that real estate brokers are extremely overpaid. - selling your house, at the end of the day, is quite the undertaking. A lot goes into it, it can get emotional, messy, and sometimes quite complicated. Having someone that does it on a daily basis can be nice and reall…

Expecting 3%/$30,000 k for being "someone that smoothes things out" on a sale of, let's say a $1M home in CA, is theft.

What if their knowledge of the market and negotiating helped you get an extra $60k in value on the sale of your home vs. selling it yourself?

Re: Zillow CEO: startups trying to disrupt real estate commissions will fail (2012)

#179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nothing came of it? The whole Virtual Office Website (VOW) thing got created.. before meetings NAR and RESO intone legalese about encouraging competition. There's a lot of fear that the FTC will step back in and do something. With the level of MLS balkanization, innovation has a bunch of high hurdles.

i mean, relative to what they could have done (sued for damages and broken up the monopoly), structurally nothing changed. but if you promote free and fair markets, you'd discourage/dismantle this kind of protectionism.

The Bush Justice Department did sue! https://www.justice.gov/archive/atr/public/press_releases/20...

Re: Zillow CEO: startups trying to disrupt real estate commissions will fail (2012)

#180
post #157
post #42

People love to complain about realtors. Companies like Redfin have been trying to disrupt this market for years. People on HN and other places like to complain that realtors are pointless and that the only reason they exist is they are entrenched. I posit a different theory, which may well be controversial here, and that is that realtors continue to exist--and charge large commissions doing so--because they provide a…

This is dead on. The HN crowd that prefers to buy on their own based on objective measures and data they can find on a property is a tiny minority. Most people want and need human guidance in a complicated situation like buying a house.

The flip side of that is many non-US property markets function perfectly fine without people using buy side agents. Unless you're a large scale property investor you're not buying a property on objective data or insider information, you're buying it because you've visited it and several others within your budget, and this is where you actually want to be. Having someone with financial incentives as strong as the seller's agent to tell you that you're not going to find anything better and you don't want to negotiate too hard on price along for a commission-earning ride isn't that big an advantage, and you'll be paying separately for the legal advice and surveys anyway.
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