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Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

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Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#831

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't say it's because it's the "wrong" result but that only now you could make an informed decision because only now you can see what a Brexit looks like. To be fair, it could be seen since 2016, but now it can no longer be honestly ignored.

I don't think we're seeing "what a Brexit looks like". We're seeing the fumbling of a government who gave the British people a vote in 2016 and whose bluff was called. They didn't want and, more importantly, didn't expect the result they got, and stupidly had done nothing to prepare for it. And for the last two years, they've petulantly gone through the motions of negotiating a deal that they would dearly love to fai…

I don't think they hoped it'd fail. There was no chance of anything better than the kind of deal Norway has - they pay, obey the rules and have no say - as opposed to what the UK now has - they pay, obey the rules and have a say.

A democratic decision on a poorly formulated question at best. Democracy assumes informed decisions by the people and this was anything but. The leave campaign made every misrepresentation they could in order to paint a rosy future we all knew would never be possible.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#832

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>This should be a lesson for all voters across the world - think for a minute before voting. At least try to understand what you're voting on. We can blame all we want on the media, politicians etc etc, but in the end, we can't deny Brexit is the result of a properly, democratically conducted election It's a shitshow for sure, but at least it's a democratic shitshow. Democracy isn't always a bed of roses, sometimes i…

What really helped the leave vote was not so much shadowy influences but the attitude of the EU. 1. Can you explain the "attitude of the EU" part? 2. If the EU is that bad, why aren't other countries holding referendums and leaving the EU? Why is only the UK making so much noise? I am not European, so my knowledge on this matter is pretty small. Honestly curious, not being snarky etc.

The OP is mistaken and like many people think the EU is some kind of antagonistic entity that was forced upon their country, whereas in reality the EU has been funded by its member states as a voluntary union of members states - by unanimous votes, in all important matters. Every feature of the EU is the result of careful, decade long discussion between the governments of members states from all kinds of political sides.

The reason why the EU is perceived so bad in some countries (like the UK) are partly historic and partly because it the EU is the perfect scapegoat for local politicians who have messed things up. In the UK, scapegoating the EU for your own mistakes was particularly common.

Add to this the facts that the Leave campaign lied about practically everything - or at least intentionally distorted the facts - and that many voters don't know much about the structure of the EU, and the Brexit became reality.

It is unlikely that a similar decision will be made in any of the remaining 27 countries, for lack of popular support and because people there are more aware of the benefits of the EU. Never say no, though, fuelled with money from outside the EU, currently right-wing populists are pretty good at exploiting the fact that the divide between the rich and the poor is ever increasing very cleverly, and since poverty will increase in all EU countries, irrational and populist recipes for "the simple man on the street" can continue to gain in popularity. Radical left wing parties have largely the same agenda, so these are interchangeable.

So it's possible that one or two countries might attempt to exit the EU after some populist party has won an election. It's unlikely, though, because the EU offers overall way more benefits than disadvantages. It's budget is ridiculously cheap in terms of percentage of GDP and you get a lot of bang for the bucks out of the trade union alone. Moreover, future generations are fairly pro-EU in most member countries (though there are some outliers).

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#833
post #619

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is more or was more? The referendum was two and a half years ago and people now have more information at hand, which is my point – why is reneging on brexit automatically political suicide? Because it's not what the people want? Maybe it is today, given what we now know? Would love to see some data sources, if you have any links?

Except for a few, most Remainer tories in brexit districts aren't coming out in favor of a second referendum or abandoning brexit without even a second vote. That tells you what you need to know about what they think of popular opinion in their districts. Same for Remainer labour MPs in brexit districts.

Do you have sources for this?

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#834

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>This should be a lesson for all voters across the world - think for a minute before voting. At least try to understand what you're voting on. We can blame all we want on the media, politicians etc etc, but in the end, we can't deny Brexit is the result of a properly, democratically conducted election It's a shitshow for sure, but at least it's a democratic shitshow. Democracy isn't always a bed of roses, sometimes i…

What really helped the leave vote was not so much shadowy influences but the attitude of the EU. 1. Can you explain the "attitude of the EU" part? 2. If the EU is that bad, why aren't other countries holding referendums and leaving the EU? Why is only the UK making so much noise? I am not European, so my knowledge on this matter is pretty small. Honestly curious, not being snarky etc.

> If the EU is that bad, why aren't other countries holding referendums and leaving the EU?

I think you're wilfully ignoring what has been happening in Ireland, Greece, France and Italy in recent years.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#835
post #698

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>This should be a lesson for all voters across the world - think for a minute before voting. At least try to understand what you're voting on. We can blame all we want on the media, politicians etc etc, but in the end, we can't deny Brexit is the result of a properly, democratically conducted election It's a shitshow for sure, but at least it's a democratic shitshow. Democracy isn't always a bed of roses, sometimes i…

The UK already had so many opt-outs and rebates compared to all other members, there really wasn't that much room for more concessions, certainly not of the type that the UK "leavers" wanted.

Some "leavers" just want to trade with the rest of the world with flexibility and not be bound to the EU. It's a hard argument to make that the EU is better when "leavers" compare the economic growth of the EU, which employs protectionism to prevent easy trading with outside of the EU when comparing the potential trade deals with the rest of world outside of the EU, without the need for VAT etc.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#836

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you view us?

As bullies, tbh. Reading the history of American foreign policy, it’s difficult to see it otherwise. It’s one long list of screwing other countries to serve the interests of the American people. That list contains a lot of bungled operations so the goals weren’t achieved some of the time. America has had 0 issues propping up brutal, venal, self-serving dictators if it meant benefit to America. Examples include Iran,…

> Examples include Iran, Iraq, Cuba, Chile, Pakistan, Egypt, Afghanistan. These are the ones I can name off hand.

I think these are good examples. I agree. Though don't I don't agree with your overall assessment.

America elect representatives (not leaders) and it seems overwhelmingly to be the case that its representatives haven't been in control of its own government. The accountability structure broke and this has been going on for decades (probably since JFK) or perhaps even earlier.

America gives more foreign aid and has more immigration than all other countries combined. Its constitution is the longest standing foundational document in the world and genuinely (at least on paper) gives the people liberty and justice for all. America changes at a very rapid pace given its emphasis on liberty and immigration.

I think America is overwhelmingly a force for good in the world despite its rogue out of control agencies doing very bad things. Even so I deeply respect America as a nation. Given the age and the huge amount of power that has been consolidated its going through some inevitable problems. I think the American people are resilient and have the character to get through these times.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#837
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some might say that a good outcome is one where the people can freely make their own choices and accept the consequences. The plight of the British might serve as a cautionary tale informing the decisions of some other country, that's certainly a good thing in some sense. Democracy is not guaranteed to deliver prosperity or lead only to the correct decisions, yet it's the best system we have.

I often hear the refrain that, "democracy is the worst form of government except for all the other forms that have been tried". But how many forms have actually been tried? As far as I know, every country is either a democracy or an autocracy. Maybe it could be better phrased as, "Democracy is better than autocracy, and we think it's crazy to try anything else".

What else do you have in mind?

There are dozens if not hundreds of different types of democracy, each with its own set of advantages and disadvantages, and many forms of democracy that have not yet been tried. Most of them would be disastrous, for example "direct democracy" as opposed to representative, parliamentary democracy could not possibly work outside of a small village.

But it's odd to look at this as trying something out. As far as I know, no political system has ever been tried out. Okay, maybe you could count the genocide in Cambodia by the Red Khmer as trying out, but even they didn't really have the intention of just "trying out" this new, accelerated path to communism.

Political systems are put in place by emerging elites after a disruptive event (e.g. revolution, war, cataclysm, mass exodus) has taken place.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#838
post #41

The Brexit promise is something nobody can deliver on. It was a lie, you cannot force the EU to accept an unfavorable trade deal. If only for the reason that it would set an exceptionally bad precedent and everybody would want their own deal, to pick and choose the parts of EU membership that are favorable to them, leading the EU to implode. Somebody needs to own up to that lie and accept that a "no deal" outcome, wh…

The Brexit promise was to leave the EU and open better trading options with the rest of the world. Outside of the EU, there is no issue reducing VAT, customs fees etc. In fact, WTO rules even allow more competitive options between countries if the UK chooses to lower associated fees in the WTO. Additional the UK is able to negotiate trade deals for it's own interests rather than concerns about protectionism for the EU. None of this can be done by the UK in the EU.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#839
post #668

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The original intent? What original intent was that? Brexit was always light on detail, and that is coming home to roost. When pressed, most Brexit supporters I've spoken to show absolutely no interest in the dismal nitty gritty of politics, preferring to spout shallow platitudes like "why can't they just get on with it". The silence from chief Brexiteers Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson has been profoundly deafening.

There was no need for detail, because the WTO already provides a framework for trade agreements. That was the assumed state people voted on - talk of a deal came afterwards, and was considered by many to be an attempt to do "Brexit in name only", causing a situation where we're still obligated to the EU but no longer have any MEPs.

The WTO provides a loose foundation for trade without agreements, and guidance on how agreements can be reached.

Trade without agreements is subject to tariffs and major restrictions severe enough to cause serious economic damage.

Agreeing FTAs can take years, hence the need for a transition period until one is agreed between UK & EU.

What May did was entirely consistent with trying to achieve the Brexit that was voted for.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#840

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a complicated topic, but a short and overly basic version: There are many people in the UK - as in the US, as in most of the West, actually - for whom neoliberalism has not been kind. They see immigrants getting jobs and struggle to make ends meet and have been told via various right wing media outlets (in the UK, principally the Daily Mail, Daily Express, Sun, Telegraph and Times newspapers), that there are…

As you say, it's a complicated topic. > However the UK gets far more economic benefit than it spends, and the poorest of communities like South Wales have had far more spent on it in targeted social programmes by the EU than has ever been spent by Westminster. The UK contributes more to the EU budget than it receives back. Ceteris paribus, the UK could fund all the same programmes, and have huge buckets of cash left…

"The UK contributes more to the EU budget than it receives back. Ceteris paribus, the UK could fund all the same programmes, and have huge buckets of cash left over."

Yeah. Right. Problem: They are going to lose the 1 trillion euro claring. Tax income from that was likely already higher than the UKs EU budget contributions.

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