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Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

nytimes.com

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Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#671

Post by cryptonector »

mstade wrote: post #619
cryptonector wrote: post #614

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The electoral map of the UK is more hard-brexit than the popular vote. There are many seats where brexit won 60+% or even 70+%. That means that there are a lot of MPs who, though they may wish to Remain, also wish to remain as _MPs_, and that means they cannot be overtly Remain.

Is more or was more? The referendum was two and a half years ago and people now have more information at hand, which is my point – why is reneging on brexit automatically political suicide? Because it's not what the people want? Maybe it is today, given what we now know? Would love to see some data sources, if you have any links?

Except for a few, most Remainer tories in brexit districts aren't coming out in favor of a second referendum or abandoning brexit without even a second vote. That tells you what you need to know about what they think of popular opinion in their districts. Same for Remainer labour MPs in brexit districts.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#672

Post by remarkEon »

Beldin wrote: post #239
nostrademons wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then that's what we get. There's no guarantee of a good outcome: if the majority of people want to do stupid things, a democracy will let them. In such a case we'd probably be fucked regardless of what form of government we had. A dictatorship, monarchy, or oligarchy lets a minority of people do stupid things, and if you have a majority, it's fairly likely there is a powerful minority contained within them.

The majority of EU citizens did not vote in the Brexit referendum. They shouldn't have to suffer the consequences [edit to clarify] of a war resulting from this vote.

I don't live in the EU, so maybe I'm missing something, but how could Brexit possibly end in a war?

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#673

Post by cryptonector »

RugnirViking wrote: post #615
cryptonector wrote: post #369

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Problem is: many labour MPs are from hard-brexit districts. Same thing for conservative MPs. In fact, the problem is that the electoral map of the UK is more hard-brexit than the popular vote, while the MPs from hard-brexit districts are mostly remainers. Remainer MPs from hard-brexit districts have contradictory and irreconcilable motivations: they want the UK to remain in the EU, but they want to remain MPs. If at…

note that you say a potential election might not yield a remain result - in fact I would suggest that it will certainly not. Even if every remain voting constituency somehow formed a government (impossible with even just SNP and Labour tensions), it would not be close to enough seats to form a government.

And the district boundaries got redrawn, and the new districts are a bit more favorable to the tories, so I think the chances of a Labour win in the next GE are only good if the tories commit electoral suicide (which, of course, they might), even assuming SNP aligns with labour (which, as you say, is not a given).

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#674

Post by cryptonector »

BerislavLopac wrote: post #580
cryptonector wrote: post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

May hasn't been held responsible for this, yet. She's survived an internal party vote of no confidence, and she is clearly confident that her government will survive tomorrow's parliamentary vote of no confidence. Right now the PM (and the EU) gets to go back to the drawing board. And Parliament gets to try to force various things, such as a second referendum, or a delay to brexit (which the EU would have to acquiesc…

> Right now the PM (and the EU) gets to go back to the drawing board Nope. The EU has said there will be no more negotiations.

Many brexiteers would be happy with no-deal brexit. The EU will almost certainly negotiate something, if not now, then later. Of course they'll say that they won't renegotiate _now_.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#675

Post by smileypete »

justaguyhere wrote: post #651
yholio wrote: post #41

The Brexit promise is something nobody can deliver on. It was a lie, you cannot force the EU to accept an unfavorable trade deal. If only for the reason that it would set an exceptionally bad precedent and everybody would want their own deal, to pick and choose the parts of EU membership that are favorable to them, leading the EU to implode. Somebody needs to own up to that lie and accept that a "no deal" outcome, wh…

This should be a lesson for all voters across the world - think for a minute before voting. At least try to understand what you're voting on. We can blame all we want on the media, politicians etc etc, but in the end, we can't deny Brexit is the result of a properly, democratically conducted election - voters need to take at least some responsibility. No amount of "voters' remorse" is going to help now.

>This should be a lesson for all voters across the world - think for a minute before voting. At least try to understand what you're voting on. We can blame all we want on the media, politicians etc etc, but in the end, we can't deny Brexit is the result of a properly, democratically conducted election

It's a shitshow for sure, but at least it's a democratic shitshow. Democracy isn't always a bed of roses, sometimes it's chaos, but it is what it is.

The EU council could have offered some reasonable concessions in order to remain, both before and after the referendum, but nada. What really helped the leave vote was not so much shadowy influences but the attitude of the EU council. You can't ignore the elephant in the room.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#676

Post by remarkEon »

gonehome wrote: post #629
cm2187 wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

War between who and who?

I was the OP - my thinking is that things are trending poorly. The west and what it stands for is threatened both directly (Russian involvement in attacking elections both in the US, in the UK with brexit, and elsewhere) and indirectly (rise of authoritarian power/censorship in China). This is ignoring smaller, but still violent direct threats like ISIS. With the remaining powerful moderates in Europe struggling (Mer…

What exactly does "the West" stand for, in your view? Your hyperbolic framing of Russia's "involvement" in 2016 aside (you make it sound like it was large scale cyberwar, which it wasn't), Russia would now start a global war in Europe that would very likely go nuclear because ... the West isn't "standing up to it"?

>a large scale conflict is more likely or a west that isn't as united and can't respond as well to aggression from Russia.

The default foreign policy consensus appears to be that anything Russia does is "bad" and should be opposed, perhaps militarily. This is nonsense, and really is a "Cold War mindset" that is not applicable in a post-9/11 environment.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#677

Post by justaguyhere »

smileypete wrote: post #675
justaguyhere wrote: post #651

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This should be a lesson for all voters across the world - think for a minute before voting. At least try to understand what you're voting on. We can blame all we want on the media, politicians etc etc, but in the end, we can't deny Brexit is the result of a properly, democratically conducted election - voters need to take at least some responsibility. No amount of "voters' remorse" is going to help now.

>This should be a lesson for all voters across the world - think for a minute before voting. At least try to understand what you're voting on. We can blame all we want on the media, politicians etc etc, but in the end, we can't deny Brexit is the result of a properly, democratically conducted election It's a shitshow for sure, but at least it's a democratic shitshow. Democracy isn't always a bed of roses, sometimes i…

What really helped the leave vote was not so much shadowy influences but the attitude of the EU.

1. Can you explain the "attitude of the EU" part?

2. If the EU is that bad, why aren't other countries holding referendums and leaving the EU? Why is only the UK making so much noise?

I am not European, so my knowledge on this matter is pretty small. Honestly curious, not being snarky etc.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#678

Post by la6470 »

yholio wrote: post #41

The Brexit promise is something nobody can deliver on. It was a lie, you cannot force the EU to accept an unfavorable trade deal. If only for the reason that it would set an exceptionally bad precedent and everybody would want their own deal, to pick and choose the parts of EU membership that are favorable to them, leading the EU to implode. Somebody needs to own up to that lie and accept that a "no deal" outcome, wh…

[dead]

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#679

Post by InclinedPlane »

pseudolus wrote: post #317

One of the effects of Brexit that is overlooked by people outside of the UK is the effect that it will have on the Union itself. In 2014 during the Scottish independence referendum those favouring remaining in the UK prevailed by about 11%. One of the strongest arguments made by those who favoured remaining was that an independent Scotland would not accede to the EU automatically, according to the EU itself, but woul…

Northern Ireland definitely prefers very much to remain in the EU, whether they want to join the Irish Republic is a separate issue, but it's easy to see them splitting away within the next decade or so. "The United Kingdom of England and Wales" has quite the ring to it doesn't it?

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#680

Post by Dylan16807 »

mikeash wrote: post #548
nostrademons wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then that's what we get. There's no guarantee of a good outcome: if the majority of people want to do stupid things, a democracy will let them. In such a case we'd probably be fucked regardless of what form of government we had. A dictatorship, monarchy, or oligarchy lets a minority of people do stupid things, and if you have a majority, it's fairly likely there is a powerful minority contained within them.

Democracy doesn’t have to mean that 50% + 1 gets whatever they want. There can be higher bars to clear for more drastic changes, and pretty much every democratic government has some.

Especially when it's 50%+1 on a voting turnout of 65%.
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