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Ahead of IPO, Airbnb achieves profitability for second year in a row

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Re: Ahead of IPO, Airbnb achieves profitability for second year in a row

#101

Post by reading-at-work »

bradleyjg wrote: post #96
gringoDan wrote: post #43

They're often considered similar businesses, but intuitively it seems to me that, long-term, Airbnb will be valued higher than Uber and other ridesharing companies. Home rentals seem to be simpler market to operate in than coordinating real-time supply and demand between drivers & riders. Additionally, Uber seems to be facing issues on the driver side of the business - they have a $650 driver acquisition cost & a 12%…

On the other hand Uber is now operating mostly aboveboard while Airbnb, at least in its single largest market (NYC), is like Napster in its second incarnation—-while it may itself not be violating any laws the overwhelming majority of its facilitated transactions are illegal. That’s a dicey thing to invest in.

> the overwhelming majority of its facilitated transactions are illegal.

Any source on that? I know some municipalities regulate rentals now, but to say that the vast majority of them operate illegally is a bold claim to make with no data presented.

Re: Ahead of IPO, Airbnb achieves profitability for second year in a row

#102

Post by dawhizkid »

the_watcher wrote: post #70
onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Several of my friends bought places in Palm Springs to do this in 2012-2015. They've made an absolute killing so far. But who knows what will happen if another recession comes.

I grew up there and my dad owns a real estate brokerage. I can confirm that this is pretty common, and it's a great example of Airbnb making a market that has existed longer than I've been alive (vacation rentals in a resort city) orders of magnitude more accessible to the average person. I've seriously considered (to the point of starting to model it) buying something that can credibly be called "walking distance" t…

Wow, didn't realize how inexpensive homes are there (vs LA, SF at least. I see 2 bedroom/2 baths for under $200k..tempting!

Re: Ahead of IPO, Airbnb achieves profitability for second year in a row

#103

Post by Tiktaalik »

matchbok wrote: post #61

Amazing what a company can do when they ignore regulations and simply extract wealth out of our communities. 80% of their profit comes from huge corporate listings yet they advertise themselves as a "home-sharing" site. Nonsense.

Vancouver brought in regulations to try to regulate Airbnb into actually behaving like the service is intended, that is to ensure that people are simply renting out other rooms in their residence and are not buying condos with the explicit purpose of renting them out full time like virtual hotels.

It's abundantly clear that Airbnb has zero interest in helping Vancouver enforce these rules. Vancouver has had to struggle to enforce its rules and is failing at doing so.

Re: Ahead of IPO, Airbnb achieves profitability for second year in a row

#104

Post by bradleyjg »

reading-at-work wrote: post #101
bradleyjg wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the other hand Uber is now operating mostly aboveboard while Airbnb, at least in its single largest market (NYC), is like Napster in its second incarnation—-while it may itself not be violating any laws the overwhelming majority of its facilitated transactions are illegal. That’s a dicey thing to invest in.

> the overwhelming majority of its facilitated transactions are illegal. Any source on that? I know some municipalities regulate rentals now, but to say that the vast majority of them operate illegally is a bold claim to make with no data presented.

In NYC, Airbnb’s largest market, with tiny exceptions, it is illegal to rent out an entire apartment (i.e. host not present) for less than 30 days.

Re: Ahead of IPO, Airbnb achieves profitability for second year in a row

#105

Post by gfosco »

asteli wrote: post #89
conanbatt wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Craigslist has a fantastic moat: they are insanely operationally efficient. To make more money than craigslist at a lower cost is virtually impossible. The real entrance cost to becoming a host in airbnb is not airbnb, its having a house. And a host will use airbnb or whatever to keep the appartment occupied. It can absolutely be commoditized, much like Lyft and Uber have. A service that posts your apt in multiple we…

I have friends who worked at Craigslist, and was astonished to hear them describe a team of IIRC 35-40 employees. They have somewhere around 50 now? Makes you wonder what those 3k+ employees at Twitter all do.

Sales, Marketing, Partnerships, Content Moderation/Censorship.

Re: Ahead of IPO, Airbnb achieves profitability for second year in a row

#106

Post by FireBeyond »

pbreit wrote: post #13
justadooda wrote: post #3

I plan on shorting Airbnb once it IPOs. It will only go down in the short term. Regulations were at an all time low and will slowly ramp up. For better or for worse, these regulations will hurt Airbnb. I'd be curious to hear from anyone who seriously thinks Airbnb will be able to achieve substantial growth in the next 5 years, given the increasing likelihood of a slowdown and more regulations from large cities.

I am super bullish on AirBnB as rare company that can credibly consider a variety of humongous future aspirations. I could see it getting involved in all sorts of travel, lodging and housing industries. Very, very few companies have demonstrated the ability to combine the imagination and execution as AirBnB. I don't think the regulatory environment will be even a speed-bump on its path.

What has AirBnB done that's imaginative beyond VRBO and similar ilk?

> I don't think the regulatory environment will be even a speed-bump on its path.

They certainly haven't treated it as such. "Laws? Fuck'em". Witness: New York. Witness: Gibraltar-issued anonymous credit cards to avoid taxation issues.

I'm not sure these are things to be proud of or aspire to.

Re: Ahead of IPO, Airbnb achieves profitability for second year in a row

#107

Post by Shivetya »

bradleyjg wrote: post #104
reading-at-work wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the overwhelming majority of its facilitated transactions are illegal. Any source on that? I know some municipalities regulate rentals now, but to say that the vast majority of them operate illegally is a bold claim to make with no data presented.

In NYC, Airbnb’s largest market, with tiny exceptions, it is illegal to rent out an entire apartment (i.e. host not present) for less than 30 days.

I am curious if Mayor Bill de Blasio will go after landlords who permit or partake of this following his recent declaration they will confiscate property of landlords they consider abusive or failing to maintain property to new standards. Of course he plans to turn them over to non profits which is code for politically connected groups which support him, but the idea that they don't put an Airbnb clause into the abusive category isn't baseless.

AirBnb is going to get knocked down a peg or two once the states get involved, they are able to dance around many cities and their attempts to reign it in but once a state level attorney comes for them it won't be simple.

however as with uber this comes down to private property rights, who do you choose to side with. Me, I am with the property owners as a Libertarian but I am with government regulation so that it is not abused to the injury of others. Specifically the idea of evicting people or requiring them to vacate during high profile events in town

Re: Ahead of IPO, Airbnb achieves profitability for second year in a row

#108

Post by bradleyjg »

Shivetya wrote: post #107
bradleyjg wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In NYC, Airbnb’s largest market, with tiny exceptions, it is illegal to rent out an entire apartment (i.e. host not present) for less than 30 days.

I am curious if Mayor Bill de Blasio will go after landlords who permit or partake of this following his recent declaration they will confiscate property of landlords they consider abusive or failing to maintain property to new standards. Of course he plans to turn them over to non profits which is code for politically connected groups which support him, but the idea that they don't put an Airbnb clause into the abus…

Here’s one recent lawsuit seeking $21 million: https://iapps.courts.state.ny.us/fbem/DocumentDisplayServlet...

Re: Ahead of IPO, Airbnb achieves profitability for second year in a row

#109

Post by ivalm »

jameslk wrote: post #93
hrez wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Auto insurance doesn't expire. Every single auto insurance in US I had is a 6 or 12 month contract which expires at the end. The expiration time/date is very specific to the minute. You usually get a new contract after that which you can choose to pay premium for or loose coverage otherwise.

Yes, my bad, you are correct on that. I meant more that options don't renew. I came to edit it after I thought that through but too late I suppose.

options renew in the same way any insurance renews after the contract is up -- you pay additional premium for additional duration.

Re: Ahead of IPO, Airbnb achieves profitability for second year in a row

#110

Post by ivalm »

jameslk wrote: post #34
mylons wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

you can buy puts and easily limit your down side. edit: whoever downvoted this, do you not understand how buying puts works? your risk is capped at the money you spent on the contracts. you can only lose that amount.

That sounds like hedging a bad idea with another bad idea. Options expire, so not only do you have to be right that the stock will go down, but you also have to be right that it will go down before your options expire. The further away the expiration, the higher you'll be paying for implied volatility. This sounds like a terrible strategy for a hunch that regulations are going to eventually impact Airbnb at some fuzz…

I mean, when you short you also pay borrowing fees, so you are still paying some premium. You can also buy OTM calls to limit your downside.
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