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Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

nytimes.com

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Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#401

Post by lurquer »

benmmurphy wrote: post #389
jpfr wrote: post #360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A "no deal" outcome, which is clearly bad, is still the best thing brexiters can actually deliver. It could go much much worse than just "bad". The UK imports a lot of food from EU neighbors. In case of a hard Brexit, this will just ... stop. The question is whether all supermarkets can immediately redo their supply chains. That is not likely. Especially since the UK will loose all trade agreements with the non-EU…

I think this is a ridiculous claim. Are you saying the UK is going to stop food coming across its border when it is to the clear benefit of it's citizens? That is ridiculous. The UK will suspend ALL customs operations before it does that. The bureaucratic state is kind of broken but not that broken.

Maybe he was referring to the casket business... the EU produces most of the UK's caskets... maybe that's why there would be corpses in the street.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#402

Post by andrewmcwatters »

mattlondon wrote: post #347
andrewmcwatters wrote: post #332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Children should not be able to vote.

16 year olds can get married, join the military, work fulltime and pay income tax. Why shouldn't they also be allowed to vote?

You know what, you're right. We should extend all 18-21 privileges to 16 years of age across all developed nations and call 16+ aged individuals adults. Because after all, they're fully developed persons capable of the same level of rational thought and emotional separation as those at 18 through 21 years of age and beyond.

So, age of adulthood: 16. Age of consent: 16. Age of military draft eligibility: 16.

Subsequently, since they're adults, we should also remove protections for individuals from their parents at 16 years of age and above. They're fully capable people.

You're absolutely right. I'm wrong. Completely. Thanks for pointing that out.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#403

Post by hardlianotion »

jandrese wrote: post #357
ivraatiems wrote: post #345

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read your post as quite confident, but a lot of people were equally confident that the original referendum would be a strong Remain victory. What are you basing these predictions on?

It seems like the second referendum will also fail if it still includes the "allow brown people into your country" part of being an EU member.

That's pretty insulting to a major part of the population. I don't suppose you can justify your position?

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#404

Post by roywiggins »

yholio wrote: post #169
mrec wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> they are trying to camouflage that reality with a bad deal They're not, May is, and May is not a Brexiter. The Brexiters generally are pushing to leave on WTO terms, not so much as a preferred end state but in recognition of the fact that only a genuine commitment to doing so has any chance of convincing the EU to agree to sensible terms such as Canada+. If the EU can keep the UK under its thumb forever then of cou…

There is no Canada+ on the table and there never was, it's just "Canada" without the "+": a set of trade liberalization measures that cover some physical goods and very few services. It's a bad match for Britain's needs: http://www.policyreview.co.uk/eu-uk-canada/ It's hard to understand why Germany or France, who stand to gain from excluding the powerful UK service sector from the EU financial markets, would think t…

There's also the "small" problem of the NI border, which would require customs checks in a Canada-style deal, since you'd be leaving the customs union.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#405

Post by jpfr »

benmmurphy wrote: post #389
jpfr wrote: post #360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A "no deal" outcome, which is clearly bad, is still the best thing brexiters can actually deliver. It could go much much worse than just "bad". The UK imports a lot of food from EU neighbors. In case of a hard Brexit, this will just ... stop. The question is whether all supermarkets can immediately redo their supply chains. That is not likely. Especially since the UK will loose all trade agreements with the non-EU…

I think this is a ridiculous claim. Are you saying the UK is going to stop food coming across its border when it is to the clear benefit of it's citizens? That is ridiculous. The UK will suspend ALL customs operations before it does that. The bureaucratic state is kind of broken but not that broken.

Everybody will try to get as much food over the border as possible. Everybody will work together. The EU, the UK, the US, everybody. But this could still go very very bad.

What do you think "chaos at the border" means? Every truck, train and ship has to get the papers checked where they could just drive through before. But there are not enough qualified officers to actually check all the papers.

So goods will come in at a trickle.

This is the UK governments own statement. Chaos at the border for six months:

> Britain’s government has revised its worst-case Brexit scenario estimates for chaos at the country’s borders, which it now expects to last for six months rather than six weeks, the political editor of The Sun newspaper said.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-borders/uk-now...

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#406

Post by megaremote »

mywittyname wrote: post #204
SolaceQuantum wrote: post #99

I'll be the first to admit: I'm an American. I fundamentally do not understand Brexit. I understand the following timeline: 1. A largely disseminated, nation-wide vote occurs, bolstered by nationalist sentiment, that the EU is bad for the UK. This vote results in a conclusion that UK should leave the EU. 2. This is controversial, due to the majority of the populace in general not desiring to leave the EU, but not vot…

You know how Trump promised to build a wall and make Mexico pay for it? Most people, regardless of political persuasion, knew a wall would be built, but that the USA would pay for it. May promised a divorce which would be a "good deal brexit," or one that includes trade deals which benefited the UK, but without any of the "undesirable" EU requirements. Most people, regardless of political persuasion, divorce could ha…

> Most people, regardless of political persuasion, knew a wall would be built, but that the USA would pay for it.

This is clearly wrong. I think most people though it was bullshit all along, used to sway a few million idiots.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#407

Post by jandrese »

ivraatiems wrote: post #364
jandrese wrote: post #357

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems like the second referendum will also fail if it still includes the "allow brown people into your country" part of being an EU member.

Are there polls or other evidence supporting that?

[flagged]

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#408

Post by stordoff »

severino wrote: post #43
tunesmith wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I don't understand (and I am very ignorant!) is why the initial vote can't just be looked at as a stage in the decision process. Time has gone on, and the public has become more educated as to what the true effects of Brexit will be. Even leaving aside the question of how dishonest the pro-Brexit arguments were. It just seems reasonable to have another vote.

And then, if this second voting yields a different result, shouldn't they hold a third referendum afterwards? And maybe a few more, as you can always say the last one was not the genuine one.

If you can think of a good reason to do so, maybe. Two and a half years passing, having far more information about the process, and questions about the legality of the leave campaigns seem like perfectly legitimate reasons to hold a second vote before committing to such sweeping, largely-irreversible, constitutional change.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#409

Post by sparkie »

n4r9 wrote: post #390
sparkie wrote: post #382

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Brexit is history in the making. The EU is a phenomenally novel way of integrating sovereign nation-states into a singular political entity, that happened without war. It's aim is to make something as singularly powerful as the United States, without force. The thing is, the people of the UK don't want to be part of that "United States of Europe". It is being forced upon them. The failure of pro-EU people to recogn…

I think that's a sweeping generalisation. I suspect, admittedly without numbers to back it up, that a significant minority of people in the UK - myself included - are happy to be part of a greater European state. I also suspect that there is a generational factor, and that this significant minority will grow over time to become a majority.

The problem with you rejecting my claim as a "sweeping generalization" is that you've done exactly the same in your counter argument.

Polls are not reliable (they didn't predict the vote, after all). The vote is the most reliable data we have on the positions of the people of the UK. It is the biggest sample set of any measurement performed, and 1.3M more people turned out to vote leave than to remain.

My assessment of today's youth is that they're rebellious, like any generation of youth. What they're rebelling against is pro-EU, pro-socialism that has been fed to them throughout their childhood. Conservatism is on the rise among the young.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#410

Post by hardlianotion »

paxys wrote: post #274
hazeii wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The Brexit promise is something nobody can deliver on.. I would - respectfully - point out that's not the situation. It is (was?) a promise in the sense that the government is there to enact the will of the people. The majority of people who voted, voted to leave (personally I was in the minority). So now (in engineering terms) it's pretty simple. If everyone sits on their hands, the UK will leave the UK as schedule…

Brexit itself can of course be delivered, but the larger promise sold to voters - that the country would be able to negotiate favorable trade deals, that it would directly result in increased NHS funding, that it would lead to reduced immigration without affecting free movement for workers, that customs and border control would be seamless, that European court of justice would stop having jurisdiction in UK affairs e…

All of that remains to be seen. There are two major causes to this particular outcome.

1. Article 50 is an exceptionally poor piece of legislation if your objective is to deliver a smooth and equitable separation from the Union.

2. The Irish border is very sensitive and prone to violence, and the Irish government has successfully ensured that their concerns addressed in the form that they have been, within the withdrawal agreement.

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