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Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

nytimes.com

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Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#371

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Juncker tweeted about an hour ago that “time is almost up” for the UK. That means that the EU won’t sweeten the proposed deal.

They will make concessions. I'll put money on it. The UK leaving with no deal would be the beginning of the end of the EU. There is already growing anti-EU sentiment in Italy (4th largest economy in the block), Hungary, Austria, Poland. The UK leaving could set off a chain reaction which would either end the EU project or drastically reduce its size. The EU simply can't afford to have the UK leave completely, because…

That sort of assumes that the UK is all hunky dory after it leaves. If it gets slammed with an immediate recession/raising unemployment/etc... then that's leverage the EU has to convince other members to stay.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#372
post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you want access to the single market, you have to sign up to freedom of movement. The UK was never going to be able to have one without the other because it's a fundamental principle of the EU as an institution. It's a package deal.

what other trade agreement asks for freedom of movement in addition to access to the common market? can you name one other deal on the planet which does this?

Does it matter? The EU chose to tie them together into the Single Market. Freedom of labor movement was meant to put give people the same rights as capital. Giving people fewer rights than capital seemed like a bad idea at the time, so it was all tied together.

Maybe those should be uncoupled, but the EU isn't about to do it to stop a member state from leaving.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#373
post #322
post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Brexit itself can of course be delivered, but the larger promise sold to voters - that the country would be able to negotiate favorable trade deals, that it would directly result in increased NHS funding, that it would lead to reduced immigration without affecting free movement for workers, that customs and border control would be seamless, that European court of justice would stop having jurisdiction in UK affairs e…

Indeed; a lot of people subscribe to the view that the vote delivered the 'incorrect' result because one side was more effective at lying than the other side. Very difficult to know where to draw a line; my feeling is that even if history shows the people were wrong the government should not be allowed to (directly or indirectly) do something other than what they were elected to do - i.e. serve the people (on a plate…

"Serving the people" can itself be interpreted both ways. Say there was a referendum and people voted to eliminate all taxes. Would they still have a duty to carry it out, knowing that it would most certainly lead to national collapse?

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#374

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The UK is a sovereign country -- how is it possible for them to never be able to do something without someone else's permission?

By removing the legal mechanism to do so - by signing over it's sovereignty essentially becoming a vassal state. A state that asks its citizens to abide by its laws must abide by its own laws, even if those laws are written by the EU super state.

If you have no idea how it actually works, then free not to say anything.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#375

I'll be the first to admit: I'm an American. I fundamentally do not understand Brexit. I understand the following timeline: 1. A largely disseminated, nation-wide vote occurs, bolstered by nationalist sentiment, that the EU is bad for the UK. This vote results in a conclusion that UK should leave the EU. 2. This is controversial, due to the majority of the populace in general not desiring to leave the EU, but not vot…

> Where are the people who initially brought in Brexit- why are they not supporting May? They resigned. Boris Johnson the Foreign Secretary resigned. David Davis who was literally the "Brexit minister" resigned. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/theresa-mays-gov... Here are more people who resigned. https://news.sky.com/story/the-ministers-who-have-quit-over-... My view is that these people lied to the publ…

The problem is that literally nobody wants May's job right now. Given the shit sandwich she has to work with she's doing the best she can, but the best they can do is make a terrible situation slightly less terrible.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "best" solution to this problem is to cancel Brexit. Even that solution would cause a massive political blowback and only deepen the current divides that exist today. The "fantasy" solution is that the government can somehow negotiate a better deal for Brexit. But this is pure fantasy. For starters, there is severe disagreement as to what kind of deal ought to be pursued among the people who dislike May's deal. M…

Most brexiters I know admit that a hard brexit would be bad economically. But are willing to pay the cost

> Most brexiters I know admit that a hard brexit would be bad economically.

They are doing it now, because they can't contradict obvious truth. Before they were hyping how good it would be, to brainwash the masses, knowing full well it won't be good.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#377

Article 50 exists. The UK can leave on WTO terms and the EU cannot stop it. The EU has some incentives (money) to give the UK some other deal than WTO terms, and it has some incentives (avoiding a rush to the exits) to give the UK nothing more than WTO terms. As it happens the UK is wealthier than other EU countries that might head for the exits if they thought they could get as good a deal as the UK, but no one thin…

The way May approached negotiations with the EU was from a position of weakness and was doomed to fail. I wonder how much of her approach was a result of political constraints or how much of it was a result of incompetence or deliberate sabotage by her or the bureaucracy.

1) She should have made deals or conditional deals with other trading partners before submitting Article 50. This way she would have had a good BATNA option in the case negotiation with the EU failed. The EU may have been more reasonable if they realised the UK had less to lose from a failed negotiation. Of course there were problems with this approach. Firstly, it might not have been politically possible for her to delay submitting Article 50. Secondly, if you are in the EU you are not meant to negotiate trade deals with other countries. However, there is no reason for the EU to find out and I guess more importantly the EU has no real way to credibly punish the UK for that action if the UK alternative was just to submit Article 50 straight away.

2) She should have tried to get assurances from other countries in the Council to negotiate good trading terms before submitting Article 50. Yes. This is not how the EU works and the Commission is probably more likely to act in a way that hurts EU citizens but benefits the EU as an institution and unfortunately they are the ones in control of the text of such agreements. But if there was strong pressure from the Council then the Commission would look bad if they scuttled a free trade deal that looked to benefit all parties.

Free trade is meant to be good for both parties [There seems to be strong consensus from economists on this point!]. So assuming both parties are acting in good faith with their citizens welfare as a priority then surely the outcome of negotiations should be a good trade deal.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#378

Article 50 exists. The UK can leave on WTO terms and the EU cannot stop it. The EU has some incentives (money) to give the UK some other deal than WTO terms, and it has some incentives (avoiding a rush to the exits) to give the UK nothing more than WTO terms. As it happens the UK is wealthier than other EU countries that might head for the exits if they thought they could get as good a deal as the UK, but no one thin…

But the current main issue isn't even strictly about money, but the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.

It is not only an economic question, on which a compromise could probably be found, but one with hundreds of years of political, religious and cultural baggage.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#379
post #258
post #41

The Brexit promise is something nobody can deliver on. It was a lie, you cannot force the EU to accept an unfavorable trade deal. If only for the reason that it would set an exceptionally bad precedent and everybody would want their own deal, to pick and choose the parts of EU membership that are favorable to them, leading the EU to implode. Somebody needs to own up to that lie and accept that a "no deal" outcome, wh…

>The Brexit promise is something nobody can deliver on.. I would - respectfully - point out that's not the situation. It is (was?) a promise in the sense that the government is there to enact the will of the people. The majority of people who voted, voted to leave (personally I was in the minority). So now (in engineering terms) it's pretty simple. If everyone sits on their hands, the UK will leave the UK as schedule…

More importantly the government cannot deliver both "Brexit" and "business continuity", potentially including such things as "food and medical supplies". This is gradually dawning on even the dimmest Cabinet ministers.
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