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Netflix wins a longbet from 8 years ago.

longbets.org

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Re: Netflix wins a longbet from 8 years ago.

#21

Post by drats »

Esther Dyson's bet "By 2012, the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times will have referred to Russia as "the world leader in software development" or words to that effect."

http://www.longbets.org/5

The Computer History Museum gets $10,000 if she loses, I guess they should start planning an exhibit on old Russian computer technology.

But to be less smug for a moment why anyone would think this is beyond me. While the Russians did achieve significant technological advances in the 20th century, and implemented an impressive education system with regard to mathematics and computer science there are so many other factors which play into this. Namely Russia obtaining a score of 2.7/10 for corruption in 2002 from the Corruption Perceptions Index and sliding down to 2.1/10 in the most recent ranking putting them in 158th place. Further they are ranked 143rd on the 2010 Index of Economic Freedom. India with 87th on corruption and 124th on economic freedom, not great, has plenty of English speakers and a more impressive computer science educational infrastructure, as well as being cheaper. The stories of people dying in Russian prisons after resisting corrupt government shakedowns are just horrific and I am not aware of any Indian equivalent. But I suppose if you invest there as she does, you need to talk it up.

Re: Netflix wins a longbet from 8 years ago.

#22

Post by philwelch »

alextgordon wrote: post #11

It's amusing that Eric Schmidt is the challenger on http://www.longbets.org/4 in light of Google's autonomous cars.

Schmidt says "No licensed air carrier (commercial or private) will be able to use it without at least one pilot supervising the whole process in the pilot seat, even though the technology to take off, cruise and land automatically already exists.". This is, in fact, the case with Google's autonomous cars.

Re: Netflix wins a longbet from 8 years ago.

#23

Post by eru »

stuartloxton wrote: post #18
alextgordon wrote: post #11

It's amusing that Eric Schmidt is the challenger on http://www.longbets.org/4 in light of Google's autonomous cars.

Amusing - but a car with 2 passengers going at a conservative 30MPH is very different to a plane flying 9KM over the ground at 567MPH. I'm just hoping that in 80 years I won't be alive to see my comment becoming horribly wrong, with people laughing at it while a processor flies them across the world.

I guess the biggest problems will be the legal framework and the power of unions. Technically flying a plane should be easier for a computer than driving a car.

Re: Netflix wins a longbet from 8 years ago.

#24

Post by apl »

stuartloxton wrote: post #18
alextgordon wrote: post #11

It's amusing that Eric Schmidt is the challenger on http://www.longbets.org/4 in light of Google's autonomous cars.

Amusing - but a car with 2 passengers going at a conservative 30MPH is very different to a plane flying 9KM over the ground at 567MPH. I'm just hoping that in 80 years I won't be alive to see my comment becoming horribly wrong, with people laughing at it while a processor flies them across the world.

Amusing - but a car with 2 passengers going at a conservative 30MPH is very different to a plane flying 9KM over the ground at 567MPH.

You're right: building an automatic car is much harder. It's counterintuitive, but speed or altitude are irrelevant if the problem space is sufficiently simple. Additionally, risk doesn't scale linearly. If a plane crashes at 800km/h, all people on board will die; if a car crashes at 130km/h, you'll see a very similar result.

Re: Netflix wins a longbet from 8 years ago.

#25

Post by cobralibre »

Maciej Ceglowski had a similar, if less grandiose, site called Wrong Tomorrow, but it looks like it's down:

http://wrongtomorrow.com/

I don't know if the site is only temporarily down, or if it's been abandoned, but it's a shame if the latter. The idea behind Wrong Tomorrow was chiefly to hold pundits accountable for their frequently bad predictions. You can read his site announcement, where he explicitly mentions sites like Long Bets and how Wrong Tomorrow differs from them:

http://idlewords.com/2009/04/wrong_tomorrow.htm

Re: Netflix wins a longbet from 8 years ago.

#26

Post by chrisaycock »

"By 2010, more than 50 percent of books sold worldwide will be printed on demand at the point of sale in the form of library-quality paperbacks."

Vint Cerf challenges with, "At some point, laptop or smaller devices with high quality displays and suitable access controls for intellectual property will make the sale and consumption of books, sound and movies through these devices practical." He goes on to cite the "iPOD" as an example.

http://www.longbets.org/6

Re: Netflix wins a longbet from 8 years ago.

#27

Post by blaines »

Wow good find. I especially like this bet, Warren Buffett v. Protege Partners, LLC.

  “Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on
  December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds
  of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees,
  costs and expenses.”
http://www.longbets.org/362

Re: Netflix wins a longbet from 8 years ago.

#28

Post by rlivsey »

steveklabnik wrote: post #20
seabee wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the term is totally destroyed and meaningless, with different people having different ideas, you'd be better off avoiding it altogether. Don't beat a dead buzzword!

In the general case, I agree with you. However, everyone knows what 'RESTful urls' and 'RESTful apis' mean, it's just that it's not the original recipe REST. For better or worse, the definition has changed. It's still effective communication, because you know I'm contrasting '/bets/1' with 'index.aspx?action=displayBet&bet_id=1&' (which still could be quite RESTful, actually...), and a form that POSTs to '/bets' vs.…

In this case I'd opt for "clean" as a better word for what you're trying to describe.

I'd have thought everyone understands what a clean URL is without bringing across all the extra baggage/meaning of calling it RESTful.

Re: Netflix wins a longbet from 8 years ago.

#29

Post by leftnode »

iuyhgttg wrote: post #14
stellar678 wrote: post #10

Is it just me or did this seem completely inevitable and kind of on the cusp by 2002? We were building fileserver-based VOD services just to save our Internet connection from the torrenting masses in shared housing situations around this time. This seems like a risky one to bet against, at least from a technical perspective. I suppose it is true that it was still a pretty open question whether anyone would manage to…

Technically do-able, but: It could have easily been derailed the studios wanting to try and run the business themselves, ISPs who are also cable companies throttling it, national broadcasters lobbying to block it legally. It also said profitable - I thought even Amazon wasn't profitable yet?

Amazon has been profitable since 2001.

Re: Netflix wins a longbet from 8 years ago.

#30

Post by RK »

drats wrote: post #21

Esther Dyson's bet "By 2012, the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times will have referred to Russia as "the world leader in software development" or words to that effect." http://www.longbets.org/5 The Computer History Museum gets $10,000 if she loses, I guess they should start planning an exhibit on old Russian computer technology. But to be less smug for a moment why anyone would think this is beyond me. While…

Does malware count?
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