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Apple’s Errors

stratechery.com

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Re: Apple’s Errors

#121

Post by bradknowles »

acdha wrote: post #87
robmaceachern wrote: post #32

This is a really great analysis of the situation but I think Ben, and Tim Cook in his public statements, are missing one important point: iOS 12 made the older devices (iPhone 5s, 6) run _much_ better than they were running on iOS 11 [1, 2, 3]. They improved the software so much on this iteration of iOS that they probably relieved a lot of the hardware upgrade pressure users were beginning to feel in the first half o…

> They improved the software so much on this iteration of iOS that they probably relieved a lot of the hardware upgrade pressure users were beginning to feel in the first half of 2018. Another other side of this is that they've given people good reasons not to upgrade: I've been surprised by the number of people who commented that the new phones are uncomfortably large to hold and, of course, a fair number of people…

The showstopper for me is FaceID. I won’t buy a device where that is the only biometric AuthN solution available. If/when my 7plus dies, I’ll buy an 8plus, either new or used.

I won’t buy anything newer than an 8, until such time as they give me fingerprint ID back in some form.

Hard stop.

Re: Apple’s Errors

#122

Post by jakobegger »

bradknowles wrote: post #121
acdha wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They improved the software so much on this iteration of iOS that they probably relieved a lot of the hardware upgrade pressure users were beginning to feel in the first half of 2018. Another other side of this is that they've given people good reasons not to upgrade: I've been surprised by the number of people who commented that the new phones are uncomfortably large to hold and, of course, a fair number of people…

The showstopper for me is FaceID. I won’t buy a device where that is the only biometric AuthN solution available. If/when my 7plus dies, I’ll buy an 8plus, either new or used. I won’t buy anything newer than an 8, until such time as they give me fingerprint ID back in some form. Hard stop.

I can't see Apple returning to Touch ID. I think that Face ID is so much better in every way, and I can't wait for Macbooks to adopt it as well.

I'm pretty sure that if you like Finger print sensors, you'll have to switch to Android at some point.

Re: Apple’s Errors

#123

Post by ksec »

oflannabhra wrote: post #110
fauigerzigerk wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If all (or most of) the growth is in services as Apple claims, why hike hardware prices so much that it could over time erode their installed base? I believe the answer is that Apple doesn't really believe that service revenue will grow fast enough to compensate for longer hardware replacement cycles. And that belief is probably justified because their service offering doesn't seem very robust at this point.

Apple didn't just raise prices, for the sake of raising prices. Their takeaway [0] from the iPhone X was that customers were willing to pay for more advanced and more expensive features. FaceID, OLED, stainless steel, etc. Apple is making more expensive products (not just raising prices), because people have shown that they want to pay more for more value. Lots of people on HN, as well as elsewhere, will take issue w…

I am not sure where you get that 1.5 Billion number from, I don't see Horace mentioning it. But the latest number of Active Devices, as Tim Cook mentioned a 100M increase would equate to 1.4B Active Devices. ( Which is actually slower than previous momentum, as they were adding 150M / year between 2016 and 2017. )

Re: Apple’s Errors

#124

Post by ksec »

bradknowles wrote: post #121
acdha wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They improved the software so much on this iteration of iOS that they probably relieved a lot of the hardware upgrade pressure users were beginning to feel in the first half of 2018. Another other side of this is that they've given people good reasons not to upgrade: I've been surprised by the number of people who commented that the new phones are uncomfortably large to hold and, of course, a fair number of people…

The showstopper for me is FaceID. I won’t buy a device where that is the only biometric AuthN solution available. If/when my 7plus dies, I’ll buy an 8plus, either new or used. I won’t buy anything newer than an 8, until such time as they give me fingerprint ID back in some form. Hard stop.

I think Apple will continue to have FaceID at their Entry level / lowest pricing iPhone. FaceID is expensive, I just don't see it coming to lower tier in the next two years.

Re: Apple’s Errors

#125

Post by ksec »

ken wrote: post #6

I was already skeptical in general of articles about Apple doom -- we've seen those for decades. This year, I'm extra suspicious of any articles that lead with a chart of Apple stock, without showing for comparison the stock market overall. Every company is suffering right now. AMZN, MSFT, FB, NFLX, and GOOG are all down 20-40% from their respective peaks 3 months ago, yet nobody seems to see reason to write articles…

I don't think Amazon, MSFT, FB or Netflix has issued a Warning in Guidance ( yet ).

Not to mention Apple, compared to others had a very low market P/E, and it still fall. Stocks Market buys into Companies future, not present. And that is the problem, they have never seen much headroom for Apple, but lots of downsides.

Re: Apple’s Errors

#126

Post by ksec »

aylmao wrote: post #85

Not to be under-estimated either: Android in general and Chinese phones. Android has gotten pretty good. I broke my iPhone 7 earlier this year and am using a Pixel 2-- I thought I'd switch back, trade it for an X or an XS as they became available, but to my surprise I actually like it quite a bit. Many of the complaints I used to have about Android have been worked out, and there's some cool features (like Night Sigh…

I seriously do not understand how Chinese mobile phones business works. Either they have access to lots of no interest capital, or they simply have other source of Finance. Many of those things simply don't add up.

I had often thought when these phones enter EU / US Market they will be subject to higher patents fees and will be $100 to $150 more expensive than Chinese Home Prices. But that didn't happen at all.

Re: Apple’s Errors

#127

Post by fauigerzigerk »

scarface74 wrote: post #115
fauigerzigerk wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I don't think this quarter indicates that the devices are too expensive I don't claim that it does. My point is that there is a trade-off between increasing the average selling price of hardware and broadening the user base so you can sell more services to more people. Apple's market share is now dangerously low in some parts of the world, including some rich European countries. It makes features and services that a…

You can’t discount both the older generation phones that Apple still sells, the used market, and hand me down phones effect on the installed base. Every phone that Apple has introduced since 2013 is still getting updates. The 2015 iPhone 6s still runs circles around midrange Android phones and is even faster than flagship Android phones in single core performance.

I'm not discounting it. I'm a happy iPhone 6 user myself. But the trickle down effect you're talking about has to start with some people actually buying new iPhones at some point. I'm a bit worried that Apple is overplaying its hand.

A premium strategy is fine. A luxury strategy could be a disaster, especially if they intend to make money on services that require broad adoption.

Re: Apple’s Errors

#128

Post by josefresco »

graeme wrote: post #113
josefresco wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really. Source: iPhone 6 user. Couldn't upgrade to iOS 12 because of lack of space. Finally made room and after being told 12 would speed my device I had high hopes. Turns out, I don't notice any difference. App launch times, keyboard launch times, and overall responsiveness is just barely tolerable. 6S devices feel like light speed in comparison.

You may be right actually. I looked for speed tests, and apple insider showed that some apps were faster, some slower. I do have an old 6, but its not my main phone. I thought it was faster, but haven't used it enough to say. I would check your battery health under battery settings. If it's under 80% that could be causing the issue. The 6s has 2 gb of ram, which is a big part of the difference.

Thanks for the reply. I actually did check my battery, purchasing one of those apps that was trending about 6 months back when news broke of Apple's throttling. Battery is fine - phone is just slow which as you mentioned is probably because of the RAM situation.

Re: Apple’s Errors

#129

Post by acdha »

bradknowles wrote: post #121
acdha wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They improved the software so much on this iteration of iOS that they probably relieved a lot of the hardware upgrade pressure users were beginning to feel in the first half of 2018. Another other side of this is that they've given people good reasons not to upgrade: I've been surprised by the number of people who commented that the new phones are uncomfortably large to hold and, of course, a fair number of people…

The showstopper for me is FaceID. I won’t buy a device where that is the only biometric AuthN solution available. If/when my 7plus dies, I’ll buy an 8plus, either new or used. I won’t buy anything newer than an 8, until such time as they give me fingerprint ID back in some form. Hard stop.

Why is that a showstopper but Touch ID isn’t? They’re both biometric systems where the raw data never leaves the secure element, both are hardened against simple attacks, etc.

Re: Apple’s Errors

#130

Post by malshe »

graeme wrote: post #120
malshe wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think such predictions are pretty much useless in most situations. For example, there are so many experts now who predicted the stock market crash. I follow a guy on Twitter who has been predicting global economy meltdown forever. These days he is suddenly looking like a prophet even though the meltdown has not totally started yet! Saying that Apple will have problems in China means nothing unless someone provides…

They're also one or two of the most highly regarded Apple commentators. And they provide examples of how apple execs missed stuff in the past. And apple clearly did miss stuff this last quarter: their guidance was uncharacteristically way off. Stratechery isn't some random site, but you're comparing it to a guy on twitter. A precise estimate isn't necessary. His claim was that they would shrink measureably in the fir…

Let's look at it this way. If I make 10 predictions out of which only 1 turns out true and if I keep harping on that 1 successful prediction, does that make me a good analyst? If you think yes, then I will be happy to be your investment adviser!

Edit: The guy I follow on twitter is not some random dude. He is an analyst and makes some great points.

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