$1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit • Hacker News Board

Re: $1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit

#211

Post by sangnoir » Mon, Jan 07, 2019, 8:42 PM UTC

lazyjones wrote: post #191

m-i-l wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Deals are bilateral, but club membership isn't. You wouldn't seriously expect to be in a strong negotiating position with Amazon if you decided you wanted to leave Amazon Prime but retain some of the benefits without having to pay the membership fee, for example.

Your bad analogy is directly contradicted by Britain's past success in negotiating special conditions within the EU membership. UK's position upon entering the EEC was actually so strong that its application prompted 3 other countries to apply for membership.

It sounds like Britain's best days are behind it, but it hasn't come to terms with it yet. "Past performance is no guarantee of future results" ought to be plastered in parliament and at Number 10.

Re: $1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit

#212

Post by namdnay » Mon, Jan 07, 2019, 8:50 PM UTC

siquick wrote: post #180

namdnay wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

+ Norway and Switzerland both have partly artificial economies, buoyed by Oil for the former and dirty money for the latter.

Britain has both oil in Scotland, and dirty money flowing through London

Indeed, but not enough unfortunately

Re: $1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit

#213

Post by JAlexoid » Mon, Jan 07, 2019, 8:55 PM UTC

ddebernardy wrote: post #193

pow_pp_-1_v wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't know how to take this - one way to look at it is democracy won and people spoke Democracy failed here. People elect representatives for a reason. Normal people shouldn't be expected to understand the complexities and nuances of a public policy decision. It should have been the responsibility of the elected representatives to have reasoned discussions, to weigh the pros and cons etc. and finally make decisio…

Democracy hasn't failed here. Your MPs have. Humphrey in Yes, Minister puts it very aptly: the UK joined the EU to try to screw it up from within after failing to screw it up from without. De Gaulle saw through this and that is why he refused to let the UK join while was at the helm. The UK leaving the EU and/or disagreeing with what it stands for (to the UK: a market; to the rest of the EU: a peace project with bene…

UK? No... This is an issue of English imperialist history. British Empire is dead, but too many people forget that.

English majority was lying all the way from mid 20th century. Last two blatant lies - promise to the Scots to keep them in the EU and 350mil to NHS(which was really a front for "they are stealing our benefits").

Re: $1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit

#214

Post by JAlexoid » Mon, Jan 07, 2019, 8:57 PM UTC

nullify88 wrote: post #123

justaguyhere wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't feel bad (much) for those who voted for Brexit - all they had to do was spend 15 mins googling and thinking. Even if they didn't understand the full impact of leaving the EU, it was plain then (and now) to see it is such a bad idea from any angle. I do feel bad for those who voted to stay - they're gonna suffer now, despite voting responsibly and sensibly. I don't know how to take this - one way to look at it…

There was a lot of misinformation and unrealistic promises made by the Leave campaign that swayed the vote in their favour. The campaign was also unlawful due to illegal overspending which May ignores. If the public were told the truth about what we'd be sacrificing for "sovereignty", I don't think we'd be here.

Overspending is hardly the issue... People that are angry at the "polish immigrants" are no better about it today, than yesterday.

Re: $1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit

#215

Post by JAlexoid » Mon, Jan 07, 2019, 9:01 PM UTC

cm2187 wrote: post #38

myrandomcomment wrote: post #5

No surprise. Passporting (allow banks to operate in all members of the EU if they are licensed in one member) is a key to all of the banks operations. Every bank based in London for that purpose now has to open a regulated branch in an EU member. The next thing to kill the market in London will be the movement of Euro clearing to an EU member. Brexit is a self inflicted shot to the head. The number of people that sup…

> Every bank based in London for that purpose now has to open a regulated branch in an EU member nitpicking but these are unlikely to be branches but rather subsidiaries. London banks will still be able to have branches in the EU to clear EUR payments and access the ECB but are unlikely to be able to do any regulated activity (selling financial products, taking deposits or writing mortgages) out of these branches.

International banks will have bigger subsidiaries in EU countries, while UK based banks will have to get new full fledged subsidiaries in EU.

EC already warned the banks, that shell branches will not be tolerated... As complex operations cannot be overseen by people residing outside of EU jurisdictions(that's a warning about being a shady dealer, while hiding away from EU)

Re: $1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit

#216

Post by Xylakant » Mon, Jan 07, 2019, 9:04 PM UTC

lazyjones wrote: post #117

Xylakant wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, deals are bilateral. Good luck trying to get the EU to give up one of its core principles to a country that cannot even get its government to agree on a consistent negotiation position.

> Good luck trying to get the EU to give up one of its core principles to a country that cannot even get its government to agree on a consistent negotiation position. The UK government is far more consistent than the EU currently. Name one important issue where the EU has reached a satisfactory agreement and results. Migration? Social security? EU army? Nope. But just like the tone of your comment, the EU position on…

> Name one important issue where the EU has reached a satisfactory agreement and results.

The ability to travel, reside, work anywhere I desire in the EU as a right that I can rely on instead of having to ask for permission. The fact that I could marry another EU citizen from another country without having to ask for permission. That we have no extra paperwork related to that, even with a child. I still remember passport checks at the border.

Last but not least: 75 years of peace in Europe. Making the arch enemies of France and Germany friends.

Not all is good about the EU, it suffers from large deficiencies, but it has also brought great successes.

Re: $1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit

#217

Post by JAlexoid » Mon, Jan 07, 2019, 9:06 PM UTC

cm2187 wrote: post #176

bayesian_horse wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These banks can't do that part of the business out of the UK or with a UK workforce anymore. So the tax income, foreign currency trade etc goes elsewhere.

Correct. Though if that business was already made out of a EU branch of a London bank (likely for retail business), the tax income was already in the EU, not in the UK.

London has thousands upon thousands of people working in the banking sector. JPMorgan, Bank of America, VTB, Bank of China - all have 0 retail operations in London and massive headquarters. Citibank has barely any retail operations as well...

Re: $1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit

#218

Post by lazyjones » Mon, Jan 07, 2019, 9:17 PM UTC

Xylakant wrote: post #216

lazyjones wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Good luck trying to get the EU to give up one of its core principles to a country that cannot even get its government to agree on a consistent negotiation position. The UK government is far more consistent than the EU currently. Name one important issue where the EU has reached a satisfactory agreement and results. Migration? Social security? EU army? Nope. But just like the tone of your comment, the EU position on…

> Name one important issue where the EU has reached a satisfactory agreement and results. The ability to travel, reside, work anywhere I desire in the EU as a right that I can rely on instead of having to ask for permission. The fact that I could marry another EU citizen from another country without having to ask for permission. That we have no extra paperwork related to that, even with a child. I still remember pass…

> The ability to travel, reside, work anywhere I desire in the EU as a right that I can rely on instead of having to ask for permission

This was a founding principle of the EU and has been weakened recently as I'm sure you know. Also, in most countries you have to register and are only allowed to stay 6 months without work. Marrying people from other countries in Europe is not a problem and not an achievement of the EU.

> Last but not least: 75 years of peace in Europe. Making the arch enemies of France and Germany friends.

Here you lost me completely. This kind of revisionism is a real issue for the remain people. It was mostly EU countries who bombed Belgrade in 1999(!). 75 years of peace in Europe is a myth (there were plenty of other conflicts, including the current one in Ukraine!) and where it was peaceful it had nothing to do with the EU. The EU was formed in 1992, for heaven's sake.

I'm sorry for being brutally honest, but "75 years of peace in Europe" is one of these typical pro-EU talking points always brought up by badly informed people who embarrass themselves with it.

Re: $1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit

#219

Post by JAlexoid » Mon, Jan 07, 2019, 9:18 PM UTC

repolfx wrote: post #189

jpfr wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> EU member states will still want UK money. Those shiny Euros the UK is coining? Seriously, the banking services provided by the city will move to Paris and Frankfurt in no time. Outside the EU, London has zero structural advantage or lock-in.

Do you actually work in the City or in the financial industry? There are many cities in the EU. If London has no advantages other than being in the EU then why is so much financial work done there? By the way, unlike what many in this thread seem to think, being in the EU is of limited value for business protection. France and Germany via their proxies have been trying to pull financial work out of London for years -…

The same reason why New York and Hong Kong are the other two financial centres - a high concentration of banks heads are there. Not to mention stability.... Banks love stability.

London is on par with New York at the moment, but Brexit has literally killed that. London will not stop being a financial centre and it's going to be the biggest financial hub in Europe for a long time... But globally, it's now on the level of Tokyo or Singapore.

PS: I used to work in Braclays HQ, the one in Canary Wharf.

Re: $1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit

#220

Post by JAlexoid » Mon, Jan 07, 2019, 9:24 PM UTC

CM30 wrote: post #194

hnnh44 wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're assuming those "highly educated, creative, dynamic workforce" will stick around through the "short term" (decades?) pain rather than migrate. Rather, as with Detroit, there's a good chance the best and brightest will take their talents where they'll be useful and well compensated. The people with the least value and mobility will be what's left. Being the pioneers doesn't mean they'll be the ultimate beneficia…

> Rather, as with Detroit, there's a good chance the best and brightest will take their talents where they'll be useful and well compensated. So they'll go to Silicon Valley then? Tech salaries are nowhere near that high in Europe and I don't think Brexit's gonna change that. For either the UK or anywhere in the EU.

Spanish High Tech salaries aren't exactly low... Neither are Dutch salaries.

A Senior Engineer in London can expect 70K-100K($90k-$127k) on the higher end of the spectrum. Similar rates go in Amsterdam, or US outside of Bay Area and NYC.