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$1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit

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Re: $1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit

#191

Post by lazyjones »

m-i-l wrote: post #172
lazyjones wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It’s just that you cannot pick the benefits of being a EU member while shedding the obligations. Of course you can, it's a matter of negotiations. UK has/had plenty of exemptions as EU member and Switzerland for example is not part of Schengen but in the single market. It amazes me how people here think that the EU is somehow the entity that makes up all the rules. It's not, deals are bilateral.

Deals are bilateral, but club membership isn't. You wouldn't seriously expect to be in a strong negotiating position with Amazon if you decided you wanted to leave Amazon Prime but retain some of the benefits without having to pay the membership fee, for example.

Your bad analogy is directly contradicted by Britain's past success in negotiating special conditions within the EU membership.

UK's position upon entering the EEC was actually so strong that its application prompted 3 other countries to apply for membership.

Re: $1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit

#192

Post by 8note »

dep_b wrote: post #69
Zigurd wrote: post #22

This is 21st c. social media-based warfare. Damaging the West with brexit and right wing nationalists is as strategically effective as a victory in a shooting war.

> Damaging the West with [...] right wing nationalists Ya if only we were as open minded as China and Russia we would win this war.

are Muslim bans open minded?

Re: $1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit

#193

Post by ddebernardy »

pow_pp_-1_v wrote: post #134
justaguyhere wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't feel bad (much) for those who voted for Brexit - all they had to do was spend 15 mins googling and thinking. Even if they didn't understand the full impact of leaving the EU, it was plain then (and now) to see it is such a bad idea from any angle. I do feel bad for those who voted to stay - they're gonna suffer now, despite voting responsibly and sensibly. I don't know how to take this - one way to look at it…

> I don't know how to take this - one way to look at it is democracy won and people spoke Democracy failed here. People elect representatives for a reason. Normal people shouldn't be expected to understand the complexities and nuances of a public policy decision. It should have been the responsibility of the elected representatives to have reasoned discussions, to weigh the pros and cons etc. and finally make decisio…

Democracy hasn't failed here. Your MPs have.

Humphrey in Yes, Minister puts it very aptly: the UK joined the EU to try to screw it up from within after failing to screw it up from without. De Gaulle saw through this and that is why he refused to let the UK join while was at the helm.

The UK leaving the EU and/or disagreeing with what it stands for (to the UK: a market; to the rest of the EU: a peace project with benefits) has been a debate ever since the UK joined. If I am not mistaking, nearly all challenges to PMs in the UK since have been about the EU.

True, the EU is not perfect. But it's more or less functional and it's brought us peace since 1945. Plus, as an EU citizen, it's wonderful to be able to move from one point on the continent to another on a whim.

A large chunk of EU MP's time is actually spent transcribing EU law into Member State law, which is to say a lot more -- good -- stuff gets done in Brussels and Strasbourg than gets reported by the media. The EU, as an aside, happens to be a convenient scapegoat across the EU: when it's good, it's because of us; when it isn't, it's because of Brussels. But you'd never know that reading UK press.

To me the real WTF is that Brexiters didn't even believe in their own project all while pushing for it [1]. They had done such a good job in the decades prior at scapegoating the EU for just about everything, that UK voters ended up voting Leave, thereby pointing a gun at their own face.

More outrageous still is that some of the movement's leaders, such as Farage, are jumping ship by moving to continental Europe.

Frankly, as a continental EU citizen who has been watching this circus with growing awareness since the late-80s, the only thing that comes to my mind is: unless the UK public gets its act together (in which case I fully expect the rest of the EU to insist on the UK abandoning its budget rebate nonsense and adopting Schengen and the Euro, on top of aligning with the EU project once and for all), good riddance.

[1]: Mehdi Hasan's take on this in Chris Hayes' podcast is spot on: https://player.fm/series/why-is-this-happening-with-chris-ha...

Re: $1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit

#194

Post by CM30 »

hnnh44 wrote: post #167
technotony wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, in the sort run lots of pain from this. However maybe in the long run brexit will be amazing for britain. The UK has a highly educated, creative, dynamic work force with strong anglo saxon work ethic. This is the country that invented industrialization and modern democratic governance. We stand at the dawn of a new era of technological shifts that are going to require radically different political/economic syst…

You're assuming those "highly educated, creative, dynamic workforce" will stick around through the "short term" (decades?) pain rather than migrate. Rather, as with Detroit, there's a good chance the best and brightest will take their talents where they'll be useful and well compensated. The people with the least value and mobility will be what's left. Being the pioneers doesn't mean they'll be the ultimate beneficia…

> Rather, as with Detroit, there's a good chance the best and brightest will take their talents where they'll be useful and well compensated.

So they'll go to Silicon Valley then?

Tech salaries are nowhere near that high in Europe and I don't think Brexit's gonna change that. For either the UK or anywhere in the EU.

Re: $1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit

#195

Post by benj111 »

flexie wrote: post #171
benj111 wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"English law is largely whatever EU law says it is (it's regulated by the EU)." Aha, but as the major financial services industry player, we actually had a seat at the table, and could actually influence those laws. Now we may have to follow rules we have no say in, or something.... Only 3 months away, no rush.

Yes, that’s how (some of) you have chosen it should be.

Nobodies chosen that it should anything yet, thus the rant.

Re: $1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit

#196

Post by matthewmacleod »

repolfx wrote: post #190
matthewmacleod wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the UK is not planning or attempting to stay in the single market. That is not government policy, it is not the basis of the withdrawal agreement, and it is not even the policy of the opposition.

It was the original proposal. Rewind the clock to the start of 2016 and there were leave campaigners and prominent remainer politicians both suggesting that. The UK is not actually attempting to terminate all economic and cultural collaboration with the rest of Europe. Nobody is talking about it anymore because the EU refused point blank to even contemplate it and stated very loudly and clearly they'd rather die than…

I don’t share your view of this.

First off, you can disregard any statements made by Leave campaigners during the referendum campaign. The same people who are now advocating a “cut all ties” approach were the ones who were saying things like “nobody is talking about leaving the single market”. Looking for ideological consistency is a dead end.

Second, the UK and campaigners should have been well aware of what would be required if the UK wished to retain single-market membership. Those are foundational principles of the EU. There’s no ambiguity there. Anybody who advocated a position that wasn’t reconcilable with those principles was either ignorant or lying.

Third, you are deliberately misrepresenting the nature and state of the EU and it’s negotiating position. There are a clear number of different forms the UK’s relationship with the EU could take. The UK could end up in an EEA-style relationship, being single market participants but with more freedom in some areas. Or the UK could have a more distant relationship and remain within the European customs union. Or a border could have been instituted in the Irish Sea. Or a generally more distant relationship could have been negotiated in good faith. These scenarios were obvious and known, made clear by the EU, and it’s a monumental failure of governance that the UK failed to understand their negotiating position.

The EU has little incentive to change its underlying principles to reflect the demands of the UK, and expecting them to do so is obviously fantasy mismanagement.

I’ll tell you what the actual problem is - Brexit is a project with no real shape or form, into which people can pour their own fantasies. It is totally legitimate for a country to decide it no longer wishes to be a member, but to disentangle a close relationship like that requires clarity about what you want to achieve and why you want to do it, as well as honesty about what is possible and what it will cost. Honesty and clarity are both in short supply.

Re: $1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit

#197

Post by jayalpha »

nullify88 wrote: post #123
justaguyhere wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't feel bad (much) for those who voted for Brexit - all they had to do was spend 15 mins googling and thinking. Even if they didn't understand the full impact of leaving the EU, it was plain then (and now) to see it is such a bad idea from any angle. I do feel bad for those who voted to stay - they're gonna suffer now, despite voting responsibly and sensibly. I don't know how to take this - one way to look at it…

There was a lot of misinformation and unrealistic promises made by the Leave campaign that swayed the vote in their favour. The campaign was also unlawful due to illegal overspending which May ignores. If the public were told the truth about what we'd be sacrificing for "sovereignty", I don't think we'd be here.

I am very skeptical about the Brexit but on the other hand nobody knows the future. But the best description I have read about the Brexit:

If you are imaginary enslaved [by the EU] then your freedom can also only be imaginary and will likely disappoint.

Re: $1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit

#198

Post by dep_b »

8note wrote: post #192
dep_b wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Damaging the West with [...] right wing nationalists Ya if only we were as open minded as China and Russia we would win this war.

are Muslim bans open minded?

I don't think the Muslim bans in China are open minded. Of course not.

Re: $1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit

#199

Post by jayalpha »

technotony wrote: post #161
myrandomcomment wrote: post #5

No surprise. Passporting (allow banks to operate in all members of the EU if they are licensed in one member) is a key to all of the banks operations. Every bank based in London for that purpose now has to open a regulated branch in an EU member. The next thing to kill the market in London will be the movement of Euro clearing to an EU member. Brexit is a self inflicted shot to the head. The number of people that sup…

Sure, in the sort run lots of pain from this. However maybe in the long run brexit will be amazing for britain. The UK has a highly educated, creative, dynamic work force with strong anglo saxon work ethic. This is the country that invented industrialization and modern democratic governance. We stand at the dawn of a new era of technological shifts that are going to require radically different political/economic syst…

"Sure, in the sort run lots of pain from this. However maybe in the long run brexit will be amazing for britain. The UK has a highly educated, creative, dynamic work force with strong anglo saxon work ethic."

Well, the "strong work ethic" is well reflected in your productivity :-)

https://qz.com/1096354/ons-data-analysis-uks-productivity-pr...

Re: $1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit

#200

Post by repolfx »

matthewmacleod wrote: post #196
repolfx wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was the original proposal. Rewind the clock to the start of 2016 and there were leave campaigners and prominent remainer politicians both suggesting that. The UK is not actually attempting to terminate all economic and cultural collaboration with the rest of Europe. Nobody is talking about it anymore because the EU refused point blank to even contemplate it and stated very loudly and clearly they'd rather die than…

I don’t share your view of this. First off, you can disregard any statements made by Leave campaigners during the referendum campaign. The same people who are now advocating a “cut all ties” approach were the ones who were saying things like “nobody is talking about leaving the single market”. Looking for ideological consistency is a dead end. Second, the UK and campaigners should have been well aware of what would b…

I agree that looking for ideological consistency is a dead end in any large group of people, including for those who campaigned to remain. Some supported the EU project for ideological reasons (it's an ideological, utopian project after all) and others had purely pragmatic concerns. Some who argued for one side have switched to the other in the years since.

Third, you are deliberately misrepresenting the nature and state of the EU and it’s negotiating position. There are a clear number of different forms the UK’s relationship with the EU could take

That's a very odd claim to make because the EU itself is extremely clear that you're wrong. Here are some excerpts from recent news articles about Theresa May's withdrawal agreement, which the EU is now unanimous in claiming is the only option available at all, that there are no "different forms the UK's relationship could take". Who should I believe? Them or you?

- Germany's Europe minister Michael Roth said:"No deal better than the one on the table can be reached."

- Luxembourg's Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn said .... ""This deal that is now on the table is the best there is. There is no better deal for this"

- Brussels said Mrs May’s Withdrawal Agreement was ‘the best and the only deal possible’ and had been ‘approved, established, achieved’.

These statements appear to contradict you.

The EU has little incentive to change its underlying principles to reflect the demands of the UK, and expecting them to do so is obviously fantasy mismanagement.

Indeed your own position appears to contradict itself. On one hand, there are many possible options with varying degrees of commitment available. On the other, the EU will never abandon its principles. Which, lest we forget, they've said repeatedly means "no cherry picking" i.e. no options.

Honesty is in short supply.

Hmmmm ...

(I would reply but of course, Hacker News has now rate limited me because I got downvoted. This debate will have to play out some other time).

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