$1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit • Hacker News Board

Re: $1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit

#181

Post by jnsaff2 » Mon, Jan 07, 2019, 6:41 PM UTC

technotony wrote: post #161

myrandomcomment wrote: post #5

No surprise. Passporting (allow banks to operate in all members of the EU if they are licensed in one member) is a key to all of the banks operations. Every bank based in London for that purpose now has to open a regulated branch in an EU member. The next thing to kill the market in London will be the movement of Euro clearing to an EU member. Brexit is a self inflicted shot to the head. The number of people that sup…

Sure, in the sort run lots of pain from this. However maybe in the long run brexit will be amazing for britain. The UK has a highly educated, creative, dynamic work force with strong anglo saxon work ethic. This is the country that invented industrialization and modern democratic governance. We stand at the dawn of a new era of technological shifts that are going to require radically different political/economic syst…

Working in the UK tech sector I am shoulder to shoulder with many talented hard working EU immigrants. We all have passports that have automatic work permits in at least 27 other countries that don’t need us to jump through hoops to work there and whose economy is not in hard uncertainty. I’m lucky tho that I don’t have a family in the UK, I feel for those that have.

I sincerely wish the best for all brits but it is sad like an actual personal break up. Especially as this was just a Cameron/Conservative power play gone wrong.

Re: $1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit

#182

Post by tlarkworthy » Mon, Jan 07, 2019, 6:42 PM UTC

avmich wrote: post #137

tlarkworthy wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes since the Magna Carta of 1215

Is it a popular folklore or there is actual, comparable to others advantage in regard to laws? Britain lately became known for lack of law enforcements towards dirty money. I also not sure how one can manage to claim strong laws and be a surveillance capital of, say, Europe. I'd assume that's because the situation is even worse in other places.

I think so, we don't have state ids. The people are not generally against cctv as far as i can tell, and thats why we have the most survelance. The people more or less trust the state structures. You can see this in the police force, its not combatative unlike, say, the US. The state and the people work together, and thats a cultural norm spanning thousands of years. There are lots of superficially democratically questionable things in uk society, like monarchy. But it all works out becuase i think people do feel empowered with a say in the state apparatus. British people are extremely honest https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/h... . I think this has been enabled by a long history of rule following, from the rulers and the people.

On your actual point i doubt there is noticable difference in laws. I think culture is more important than laws and our laws are just codifying our culture

Re: $1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit

#183

Post by rst » Mon, Jan 07, 2019, 6:42 PM UTC

pjc50 wrote: post #71

lazyjones wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That's a bit of a misrepresentation, because those "successful non-members" are members of the single market, which is currently something that the UK is actively trying to leave. The UK is trying to leave the EU and stay in the single market. The EU is trying to deny the UK access to the single market.

The UK has the option of staying in the single market .. if it accepts freedom of movement. This is the "Norway" option everyone keeps talking about.

The UK had the Norway option, if they'd adopted it as an initial negotiating position -- but it involves agreeing to more than freedom of movement; there are also ECJ rulings and restrictions on external trade agreements. And it's far from clear that the EU27, having been through a fairly torturous negotiation, would have the patience to effectively restart from scratch. (They've signaled willingness to extend the Article 50 deadline for a referendum or election, but not in any other circumstance, and repeatedly stated that the current deal is not now open to renegotiation.)

Might also be interesting to have the view of an actual Norwegian on the Norway option, and how Britain is managing the process generally. She's not the only person on the continent who regards British politicians as malcontented fools who, at this point, deserve whatever they get:

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1071078003780870146

Re: $1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit

#184

Post by lazyjones » Mon, Jan 07, 2019, 6:45 PM UTC

chimprich wrote: post #154

lazyjones wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Good luck trying to get the EU to give up one of its core principles to a country that cannot even get its government to agree on a consistent negotiation position. The UK government is far more consistent than the EU currently. Name one important issue where the EU has reached a satisfactory agreement and results. Migration? Social security? EU army? Nope. But just like the tone of your comment, the EU position on…

> Name one important issue where the EU has reached a satisfactory agreement and results. Whenever someone asks for one single thing, they don't mean it. I predict anything I name will either not be important enough or you will not consider anything less than complete unanimity across the continent to be satisfactory. But fine, I'll play. Abolition of mobile roaming charges across the EU.

> But fine, I'll play. Abolition of mobile roaming charges across the EU.

So, ignoring your attempt at preventing the obvious answer with your introductory rhetoric, you honestly believe that roaming charges were a significant issue for the EU? Why didn't you mention banning curved cucumbers instead?

Re: $1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit

#185

Post by repolfx » Mon, Jan 07, 2019, 6:45 PM UTC

hnnh44 wrote: post #167

technotony wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, in the sort run lots of pain from this. However maybe in the long run brexit will be amazing for britain. The UK has a highly educated, creative, dynamic work force with strong anglo saxon work ethic. This is the country that invented industrialization and modern democratic governance. We stand at the dawn of a new era of technological shifts that are going to require radically different political/economic syst…

You're assuming those "highly educated, creative, dynamic workforce" will stick around through the "short term" (decades?) pain rather than migrate. Rather, as with Detroit, there's a good chance the best and brightest will take their talents where they'll be useful and well compensated. The people with the least value and mobility will be what's left. Being the pioneers doesn't mean they'll be the ultimate beneficia…

It's more likely to be the other way around. People will still try to migrate from the EU to the UK - as they are already doing in huge numbers and are still doing years after the Brexit vote. If there was going to be a major drop in immigration numbers it'd have happened already and it hasn't. In fact immigration from outside the EU has gone up not down.

The amount of fearmongering going on around this topic is quite eye opening and can only mean opportunities for people who keep their head. The top voted comment in this thread is saying that euro clearing moving out of London will "kill the market" and "be a shot in the head".

That person clearly has no idea of the size of the euro clearing market (small), or the fact that it will hurt the EU significantly more - that activity not only takes place in London for good reasons, but it exposes the UK to significant risks in case of clearing house failure ... not an entirely unthinkable problem given the eurozone's dire economic straits (stalling despite negative rates). I'm OK with it though: short term loss of relatively minor profits for banks is probably worth the insulation from the threat of government-backed bailouts in case of eurozone problems.

Also note the article: that money is leaving the UK because the EU is forcing it to leave via regulation. That's not a good sign for the strength of the EU economy - they can't win their own banking business on their own merits and have to literally ban Europeans from using British services to stop them doing it.

My view is simple - the EU is heading in the wrong direction, fast, and not even attempting to turn around. There's a train wreck coming for sure but it's not coming to the UK, as long as we get out in time.

Re: $1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit

#186

Post by kazen44 » Mon, Jan 07, 2019, 6:46 PM UTC

chimprich wrote: post #154

lazyjones wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Good luck trying to get the EU to give up one of its core principles to a country that cannot even get its government to agree on a consistent negotiation position. The UK government is far more consistent than the EU currently. Name one important issue where the EU has reached a satisfactory agreement and results. Migration? Social security? EU army? Nope. But just like the tone of your comment, the EU position on…

> Name one important issue where the EU has reached a satisfactory agreement and results. Whenever someone asks for one single thing, they don't mean it. I predict anything I name will either not be important enough or you will not consider anything less than complete unanimity across the continent to be satisfactory. But fine, I'll play. Abolition of mobile roaming charges across the EU.

to name a few others:

standardization of pallet sizes

classification of fruits and vegetables in classes so they can be more easily traded between member states.]

standardization of higher education between member states, so education is actually compatible between member states.

Re: $1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit

#187

Post by growlist » Mon, Jan 07, 2019, 6:47 PM UTC

NicoJuicy wrote: post #174

growlist wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Having done a lot of the work here there is considerable expertise in the UK, thus it will be far cheaper for the UK to go it alone than would otherwise be the case. 'SSTL was selected to supply the navigational payloads for the first 14 Galileo Full Operational Capability satellites, in partnership with prime contractor OHB System AG of Germany, in January 2010. In 2012, the OHB-SSTL partnership was awarded a second…

Realism: It's logical that the UK was involved when they were a EU member ( through partnerships as your opinionated source mentions). 1) It doesn't mean they are a leader ( as you mentioned). 2) It doesn't mean they have the expertise to set everything up ( which they didn't want to, since they tried negotiating for military access to Galileo) 3) It's not going to be cheaper now. They already spent 2,1 billion pound…

Deary me! I don't think anyone serious in the satellite business would argue that SSTL are anything but a world leader in some aspects. Apart from that there's also Inmarsat: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inmarsat

The UK also has world leading Geomatics capabilities. I work in this sector.

I think one of the positive factors for the UK as regards Galileo is that technology has advanced hugely since Galileo's inception, thus a new UK system can be superior and far cheaper, hence the confidence behind the idea.

Re: $1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit

#188

Post by schnevets » Mon, Jan 07, 2019, 6:52 PM UTC

pow_pp_-1_v wrote: post #134

justaguyhere wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't feel bad (much) for those who voted for Brexit - all they had to do was spend 15 mins googling and thinking. Even if they didn't understand the full impact of leaving the EU, it was plain then (and now) to see it is such a bad idea from any angle. I do feel bad for those who voted to stay - they're gonna suffer now, despite voting responsibly and sensibly. I don't know how to take this - one way to look at it…

> I don't know how to take this - one way to look at it is democracy won and people spoke Democracy failed here. People elect representatives for a reason. Normal people shouldn't be expected to understand the complexities and nuances of a public policy decision. It should have been the responsibility of the elected representatives to have reasoned discussions, to weigh the pros and cons etc. and finally make decisio…

Democracy didn't fail - the process of legislation failed. The UK didn't vote on how they would leave the EU or what was wrong with the current arrangements, they just strung together a poorly-worded promise and played chicken with the constituency.

Re: $1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit

#189

Post by repolfx » Mon, Jan 07, 2019, 6:52 PM UTC

jpfr wrote: post #126

Consultant32452 wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suspect it will take about ten seconds for the trade concerns the doom and gloomers are worried about to get resolved. UK is the second largest economy in the EU. The idea that they won't quickly and easily resolve trade concerns seems silly. EU member states will still want UK money.

> EU member states will still want UK money. Those shiny Euros the UK is coining? Seriously, the banking services provided by the city will move to Paris and Frankfurt in no time. Outside the EU, London has zero structural advantage or lock-in.

Do you actually work in the City or in the financial industry?

There are many cities in the EU. If London has no advantages other than being in the EU then why is so much financial work done there?

By the way, unlike what many in this thread seem to think, being in the EU is of limited value for business protection. France and Germany via their proxies have been trying to pull financial work out of London for years - the EU Commission already tried to illegally ban Eurozone countries from using the UK for certain types of trading and clearing, and the British government had to sue the EU in its own courts to get the ban lifted (said ban entirely violated all the treaties which explicitly forbid that, and the Commission knew it, which goes to show what kind of government we're talking about here).

Despite these challenges the UK has done very well and not just in finance. In 2018, out of the big western European economies (the UK, France, Germany, Italy) which do you think had some of the best GDP growth?

https://order-order.com/2018/11/09/eu-experiencing-significa...

Yes, in the November quarterly GDP figures released by Eurostat, they showed the UK did the best. If you believed what you read in the press you'd think the UK economy was about to collapse, but it's not the case.

Re: $1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit

#190

Post by repolfx » Mon, Jan 07, 2019, 6:59 PM UTC

matthewmacleod wrote: post #103

lazyjones wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That's a bit of a misrepresentation, because those "successful non-members" are members of the single market, which is currently something that the UK is actively trying to leave. The UK is trying to leave the EU and stay in the single market. The EU is trying to deny the UK access to the single market.

No, the UK is not planning or attempting to stay in the single market. That is not government policy, it is not the basis of the withdrawal agreement, and it is not even the policy of the opposition.

It was the original proposal. Rewind the clock to the start of 2016 and there were leave campaigners and prominent remainer politicians both suggesting that. The UK is not actually attempting to terminate all economic and cultural collaboration with the rest of Europe.

Nobody is talking about it anymore because the EU refused point blank to even contemplate it and stated very loudly and clearly they'd rather die than ever allow such "cherry picking". Note the terminology - the quality of EU governance is very low and the lack of imposed trading barriers is the primary incentive (an artificial incentive!) that countries see for putting up with it.

So that idea got dropped. In fact at this point it's clear that there's no way to retain any form of cooperation with EU countries at all, on anything, without accepting ALL the EU's terms, which are unacceptable as they amount to not leaving at all.

This is a bad approach for the EU to take. Its supporters like to pretend this position is some sort of natural law or inevitability, but it's not. The EU could easily disconnect trade deals and customs unions from the other aspects of its project, but chooses not to, because they know that most people outside France and Germany would not accept transfers of all powers to Brussels without some serious incentives to do so.