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Apple’s Errors

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Re: Apple’s Errors

#31

Post by oflannabhra »

maxdo wrote: post #13

The price is a big factor. Yes , people will buy the luxury phone , because there is a demand for that but it’s limited. Governments of so many counties spending so much money to financially educate people. They are not that stupid. I was going to do an upgrade , when XS and XS Max price was announced I was thinking that’s too much I’ll just buy the 1 y.o. iPhone X and that’s it. Instead they pushed “budget” $800 pho…

Besides your personal anecdote, there is no data to support you premise. Price increases for the flagship iPhone have resulted with increases of the average selling price across the entire line.

One of the major points of the article is that potentially, the XR just like the 5C, did not perform as well as Apple expected, because consumers want to buy the "best."

Re: Apple’s Errors

#32

Post by robmaceachern »

This is a really great analysis of the situation but I think Ben, and Tim Cook in his public statements, are missing one important point: iOS 12 made the older devices (iPhone 5s, 6) run _much_ better than they were running on iOS 11 [1, 2, 3]. They improved the software so much on this iteration of iOS that they probably relieved a lot of the hardware upgrade pressure users were beginning to feel in the first half of 2018.

It will be very interesting to see if Apple even supports the iPhone 6 generation of hardware on the next version of iOS. If not, or if the software performance regresses significantly, I would expect the hardware upgrade pressure to really ratchet up again in the fall.

[1] https://bgr.com/2018/09/20/ios-12-speed-test-vs-ios-11-on-ip... [2] https://techcrunch.com/2018/09/17/ios-12-makes-your-phone-fa... [3] https://www.engadget.com/2018/09/18/apple-ios12-older-iphone...

Re: Apple’s Errors

#33

Post by chooseaname »

skellera wrote: post #27
iscrewyou wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know two people who said they won’t buy another phone until the day their SE won’t turn on. I agree, SE form factor solves a great problem for some people. Not everyone wants a big screen! Apple either isn’t making enough money on the SE, not listening to their survey group, or an executive doesn’t care. They need to fix this.

Does anyone really think Apple hasn’t done market research to determine which size phone would be best for them to sell? As mentioned in one of the other comments, SE was using the production lines of the 5/5s. It probably isn’t worth it to keep those going for an older phone and the R&D for a new smaller phone is a huge cost. I’m sure it’s been proven that most people want larger screens at this point. I mean, even…

> Does anyone really think Apple hasn’t done market research to determine which size phone would be best for them to sell?

Given that around 70% of the iPhones in use are the 4.7" and under sized phones, I would say it is questionable. People like that form factor.

Re: Apple’s Errors

#34

Post by ryanwaggoner »

iscrewyou wrote: post #8
meritt wrote: post #3

> Apple seems to have underestimated iPhone SE demand to a significant degree I would love to purchase a new iPhone (or Android) if they were to make a new device with a comparable form factor to the SE. Instead, everything has progressed to these two-handed monstrosities that have resulted in fanny packs [1] becoming fashionable again simply to hold the damn things. [1] https://www.today.com/style/fanny-packs-are-so…

I know two people who said they won’t buy another phone until the day their SE won’t turn on. I agree, SE form factor solves a great problem for some people. Not everyone wants a big screen! Apple either isn’t making enough money on the SE, not listening to their survey group, or an executive doesn’t care. They need to fix this.

Or maybe there’s a fourth option: they’re listening and they know something you don’t. Maybe 1% of people will never buy an iPhone again if it’s not the SE, but that doesn’t mean it’s worth it to keep offering it.

Re: Apple’s Errors

#35

Post by benologist »

I think Cook's pretty happy to paint over Apple's errors with growing services revenue. Someone probably showed him how it grows into an iPhone killer that requires 100,000s fewer employees and no device at all. Then when he got his AOL dial-up bill for the 1090th time he realized this kind of innovation could carry Apple for decades.

Re: Apple’s Errors

#36

Post by akmarinov »

Didn't Apple move to a 3 year S cycle?

Like iPhone 6, then iPhone 6s, then iPhone 7 all being the same phone and then introducing a new design with the X.

So with this past year being the XS, this year will be the whatever XS 2 is, but with the same design, then we can expect a new design next year.

Meaning that their China not upgrading problem, as per the article, will continue for at least another year.

Re: Apple’s Errors

#37

Post by dijit »

meritt wrote: post #3

> Apple seems to have underestimated iPhone SE demand to a significant degree I would love to purchase a new iPhone (or Android) if they were to make a new device with a comparable form factor to the SE. Instead, everything has progressed to these two-handed monstrosities that have resulted in fanny packs [1] becoming fashionable again simply to hold the damn things. [1] https://www.today.com/style/fanny-packs-are-so…

My thought is they're trying to transition the phone to being your watch, with a 'tablet' for serious typing in a bag of some kind.

I mean, the Apple Watch is seriously good for most cases, it reliably sends messages using siri, I can answer calls on it, I can read my messages and do basically anything the phone can do, albeit much slower.

However, they'll have to brick my SE before I give it up. I bought an SE just before they got discontinued last year with apple care. I "downgraded" from a 7, this phone is definitely the best iPhone that exists for me and my slightly smaller than giants hands.. Even if a lot of apps are obviously not tested on the SE's size anymore. :(

Re: Apple’s Errors

#38

Post by achompas »

tptacek wrote: post #24
jseliger wrote: post #5

This is essentially a long way of saying, "Phones are now seeing marginal improvements, just like PCs. The market is saturated." Or nearing saturation. I wrote this in another thread, but when my iPhone 6 or 6s seemed to be failing a couple months ago, I just bought an iPhone 7 instead of the Xs or whatever the new hotness is. I can afford it but find it too expensive and the improvements marginal. Seemingly a lot of…

The piece explicitly rebuts that idea, most especially in its conclusion but also as the premise for why the market in China was poorly served by the schedule for the XR. You can disagree with it, but you can't reasonably claim that it's a long-winded way of saying the market is saturated.

It's funny to see the parent's comment in response to an article that literally claims

> [...] phones, thanks to their centrality in people’s lives as well as the greater likelihood of harm, will always have a faster replacement cycle than PCs.

Also funny: parent is committing a form of confirmation bias responding to an author concerned about confirmation bias.

Re: Apple’s Errors

#39

Post by ryanwaggoner »

protomyth wrote: post #23

Customers still prefer Apple’s flagship iPhones, no matter how expensive they are. That sounds an awful lot like the wishful thinking that was around Apple in the early 90's when Apple was going bankrupt and almost got bought by Sun.

The difference is that Apple is a cash-printing machine, making $100 billion dollars per year in revenue from the iPhone alone. Seems like people really do like those phones, and a comparatively tiny drop in the revenue one year doesn’t mean that’s changed.

Re: Apple’s Errors

#40

Post by achompas »

robmaceachern wrote: post #32

This is a really great analysis of the situation but I think Ben, and Tim Cook in his public statements, are missing one important point: iOS 12 made the older devices (iPhone 5s, 6) run _much_ better than they were running on iOS 11 [1, 2, 3]. They improved the software so much on this iteration of iOS that they probably relieved a lot of the hardware upgrade pressure users were beginning to feel in the first half o…

I don't think Ben misses this point. He concludes his pessimistic take with:

> It’s a bit of a hodgepodge with one primary takeaway: convincing customers to upgrade “good enough” phones is both challenging and unpredictable, and Apple can’t simply assume it will happen at the rate it has previously.

Ultimately he claims that users will eventually upgrade to the latest flagship iOS device. I think you (and I) disagree with his claim, though!

(I also might be falling prey to confirmation bias myself, specifically on the topic of phone pricing...)

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