$1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit • Hacker News Board

Re: $1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit

#71

Post by pjc50 » Mon, Jan 07, 2019, 4:58 PM UTC

lazyjones wrote: post #60

matthewmacleod wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps they're just not trying to see only the drawbacks and ignore successful non-members in Europe like Switzerland and Norway. That's a bit of a misrepresentation, because those "successful non-members" are members of the single market, which is currently something that the UK is actively trying to leave. Don't underestimate what's happening here – it would have been possible to execute Brexit in a relatively con…

> That's a bit of a misrepresentation, because those "successful non-members" are members of the single market, which is currently something that the UK is actively trying to leave. The UK is trying to leave the EU and stay in the single market. The EU is trying to deny the UK access to the single market.

The UK has the option of staying in the single market .. if it accepts freedom of movement. This is the "Norway" option everyone keeps talking about.

Re: $1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit

#72

Post by e1ven » Mon, Jan 07, 2019, 4:59 PM UTC

Loughla wrote: post #56

growlist wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And property prices in London/South East become affordable again, Sterling falls benefiting inward investment, exports, and tourism. So not all bad news then! :) There's so much defeatism within the UK and anti-Brexit propaganda flying around from vested interests. It's all so tiresome. > Brexit is a self inflicted shot to the head. Money isn't the only thing in life.

>Money isn't the only thing in life. Disclaimer - I'm not trying to be hateful. That seems like a completely nonsense, garbage statement. Brexit is primarily about money and economics, from what I can tell on the outside looking in. So what was your purpose in writing that?

It sounds like his point is that even if there are fewer big banks, he might be able to buy/rent an apartment in more desirable areas of the city.

I interpret his comment as pointing out a value to intangibles that are sometimes overlooked when viewing the country through a broad economic lens.

Re: $1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit

#73

Post by growlist » Mon, Jan 07, 2019, 4:59 PM UTC

flexie wrote: post #53

hkt wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have reliable courts which are known for their independence. We also have alternatives to courts - called Alternative Dispute Resolution mechanisms - which operate out of London mostly, and are known to be free of political interference etc. See http://www.lcia.org/ for an example. You'd write an ADR into a contract and use these people if you didn't want to use our courts. And our courts respect this arrangement…

So do virtually all other Northern and Western European countries. What you have that they don't have is the English language as the native language. Non UK lawyers (as me) chose to UK arbitration etc. because of the language, not because we trust your courts more than the German, French or Dutch courts. Yes, arbitration and other alternative dispute resolution mechanisms in most other countries could be conducted in…

You might find this of interest:

https://www.qlts.com/blog/why-english-law-governs-most-inter...

Re: $1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit

#74

Post by flavor8 » Mon, Jan 07, 2019, 5:00 PM UTC

cm2187 wrote: post #42

mbrumlow wrote: post #6

Lots of things are going to change. Things worked before the EU. I am sure things will continue to work after the exit.

And London was a major financial centre well before the creation of the EU.

History. And the EU didn't exist then as an alernate location for banks to access a large economy.

EU GDP: $19.2T UK GDP: $2.6T

Re: $1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit

#75

Post by lazyjones » Mon, Jan 07, 2019, 5:00 PM UTC

tehbeard wrote: post #63

marliechiller wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"real estate will become a little more affordable" For many people in the UK any decrease in house prices is regarded as a very good thing indeed. (perhaps i'd be able to finally afford a property!)

If you can get a mortgage when the dust settles, and those holding the property decide to cut their losses rather than cling to it for dear life until it "bounces back".

What if those holding the property are among those who move their $1T out of Britain? The London market in particular was always under huge pressure from foreign investors.

Re: $1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit

#76

Post by NicoJuicy » Mon, Jan 07, 2019, 5:02 PM UTC

growlist wrote: post #51

myrandomcomment wrote: post #5

No surprise. Passporting (allow banks to operate in all members of the EU if they are licensed in one member) is a key to all of the banks operations. Every bank based in London for that purpose now has to open a regulated branch in an EU member. The next thing to kill the market in London will be the movement of Euro clearing to an EU member. Brexit is a self inflicted shot to the head. The number of people that sup…

And property prices in London/South East become affordable again, Sterling falls benefiting inward investment, exports, and tourism. So not all bad news then! :) There's so much defeatism within the UK and anti-Brexit propaganda flying around from vested interests. It's all so tiresome. > Brexit is a self inflicted shot to the head. Money isn't the only thing in life.

I'll add another quote, only the sun shines for free ( Belgian quote)

And even then we put a price on it.

Even leaving the EU alone, results in the UK setting up their own GPS alternative. That's a huge cost to bear alone

Re: $1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit

#77

Post by Biologist123 » Mon, Jan 07, 2019, 5:02 PM UTC

I was reminded of this quote from The Big Short at the weekend:

”I have a feeling, in a few years people are going to be doing what they always do when the economy tanks. They will be blaming immigrants and poor people”. (Mark Baum).

Many people feel that austerity policies post the 2008 crash distilled feelings which led to Brexit.

If Brexit leads to another crunch, one scenario is a lot more right-wing politics, not less.

This is obviously not necessarily true, but the possibility made me very sad - and makes one wonder whether Brexit will trigger a spiraling political and economic crisis in the UK, not resolve one.

Re: $1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit

#78

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Jan 07, 2019, 5:03 PM UTC

growlist wrote: post #62

ryan_j_naughton wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your seriously misunderstand the banking sector's very real impacts on everyday lives. Having more assets under management is very impactful because money doesn't just sit in a bank -- it is used again for other things. Thus, there would be less money for loans and other investments. If you're trying to get a mortgage or start a business, that's very impactful. If you are a construction worker and financing for new c…

This is just such complete and utter nonsense it's hard to know where to start. Are you honestly suggesting that good opportunities to make money by lending to British businesses/consumers are not going to be taken advantage of due to this money going to the EU?! Last time I checked banking was global.

[deleted]

Re: $1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit

#79

Post by lazyjones » Mon, Jan 07, 2019, 5:03 PM UTC

jen20 wrote: post #32

pc86 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only for people using real estate as an investment or their primary store of wealth.

In 2015-16, 62.9% of UK households were owner-occupied. A drop in house prices (which would be incredibly welcome for me, as a prospective purchaser!) would lead to negative equity for a significant number of voters in the south east and especially the south west - no political party wants to own that, though both major parties in the UK bear responsibility for it.

> would lead to negative equity for a significant number of voters in the south east and especially the south west

This argument requires some hard numbers to make.

A significant number of owners bought their homes a long time ago and won't be affected.

A significant number of owners live in areas where prices were not affected by EU investment.

A significant number of NEW prospective owners will have access to lower prices in currently extremely crowded markets.

So, less alarmism, more facts and numbers please.

Re: $1T is leaving Britain because of Brexit

#80

Post by Latteland » Mon, Jan 07, 2019, 5:04 PM UTC

SmellyGeekBoy wrote: post #21

lazyjones wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Every bank based in London for that purpose now has to open a regulated branch in an EU member. How many of them don't have one yet? Also, every bank based in the EU will have to open a regulated branch in UK in order to operate in this large market. > The number of people that supported leave and lacked understanding of all the ties of the businesses that operate in the UK but sell in the EU was amazing. Perhaps t…

The UK is the 5th biggest economy in the world. Switzerland is 20th and Norway 30th. The UK has traditionally punched well above its weight economically, it will be interesting to see if we become just another Switzerland or Norway after Brexit rather than the world economic power that we are today. Being the banking capital of the EU is a huge contributing factor to that position, btw.

Here's a list of the top 10 est 2019 world economies. UK will go from #5 down to 7 for sure. If they actually suffer much trouble they'll fall further. #5 UK 2.982T, France 2.935T, India 2.934T. I forgot Brazil was so high, #9 at 2.095.

https://www.focus-economics.com/blog/the-largest-economies-i...