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Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

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Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

#221

Post by cjhopman »

dwaltrip wrote: post #147
ivraatiems wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Characterizing lying to the SEC and calling a Thai cave rescuer a "pedo" as such is stretching the definition of "forward-looking statement." Musk has always been largely bluster, but now the bluster is hurting people, and his companies as well. He's the biggest liability Tesla has. I don't know what he's done to earn my trust, or any investor's.

You are ignoring a decade plus of very impressive results. Sure, the man has significant flaws. That is not justification for an inaccurate portrayal.

What results? Give me $30 billion dollars to waste and I can easily show you $28 billion dollars of progress.

Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

#222

Post by iso1337 »

_ea1k wrote: post #186
vkou wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Meanwhile, Toyota, which is only at 3x the market cap of Tesla, sold >2,200,000 vehicles in Q4. It ships more combined battery capacity in its hybrids, then Tesla does in its EVs.

I think you are misestimating. Toyota sells ~1.5 million hybrids (plugin and otherwise) per year. If I'm not mistaken, the average capacity is ~6kwh. That works out to 9,000,000 KWh (9 GWh). Tesla sold about 250,000 cars last year, with an average pack size of at least 70 KWh. That works out to 17,500,000 KWh (17.5 GWh). Obviously, these are estimates, but Tesla is also running at a pace closer to ~320k units for nex…

I think even these estimates of Toyotas battery capacity are too high. Here's my attempt:

Prius Prime PHEV: 8.8 kWh Regular Prius: I couldn't find recent numbers, but 1st gen was 1.2 kWh

All other hybrids seem to have between 1-2 kWh https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_Synergy_Drive#High_volt...

European PHEV sales were 0.3% of all sales and 0.65% of all hybrids [1]

US Prius Prime 2017 sales (I think their only PHEV model) were 21k units. [2] Note that 21k units just in the US out of 1.5m hybrids total gives us 1.4%, so maybe the PHEV prius is not selling as well in Europe.

Let's say we have the following scenarios of 2.5 or 5% of the total 1.5m number being PHEV to be conservative. Further assume that regular hybrids have 1.5 kWh. For the 2.5% scenario, if my math is correct, that yields 550,000 kWh. For the 5% PHEV scenario, that yields 874,000 kWh.

[1] https://insideevs.com/only-0-3-of-toyota-sales-in-europe-wer... [2] 2017 table from https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

#223

Post by iso1337 »

anthonybsd wrote: post #195
adamqureshi wrote: post #173

Tesla is the ONLY player with a direct to consumer model. They are a native EV start up. All others right now are legacy car makers (non native) using the old franchise distribution model. Tesla OS is its bread and butter. They built the vehicle from scratch for EV. They effectively "PULLED" ever other car maker into the MIX. The legacy car makers had no other choice but to jump into the fray and take their chances.

>Tesla is the ONLY player with a direct to consumer model You are saying it like it's necessarily a good thing.

Not sure why the gp is being downvoted so much specifically in regards to the DTC comment. There was just a decently-sized HN thread about how the current non-direct to customer model is not the best for either the car buyer or the manufacturer.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18790480

Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

#224

Post by xedeon »

nihonde wrote: post #218
xedeon wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China has a higher barrier to entry than any other market, esp. in the EV market, which is going to favor the homegrown options. Tesla is already positioned ahead of other auto makers with the construction of the Gigafactory 3 along with a deal with the Shanghai government to build a wholly-owned local factory (a notable exception).

Not ahead of Chinese automakers. And Tesla is paying for the privilege of that foothold. Meanwhile, Toyota is firing up battery supply in Thailand. Not to mention that Panasonic and Chinese suppliers are the real source of Tesla batteries.

>Not ahead of Chinese automakers. And Tesla is paying for the privilege of that foothold.

The context was the barrier to entry in China. That was already implied? No other foreign auto maker was able to cut the same deal as Tesla in China.

>Toyota is firing up battery supply in Thailand.

Toyota/Lexus have zero plans for electrification in the near future. In fact, they have instead doubled down on Hydrogen with the Mirai.

http://www.thedrive.com/news/22429/toyota-to-double-down-on-...

https://corporatenews.pressroom.toyota.com/releases/toyota+d...

>Not to mention that Panasonic and Chinese suppliers are the real source of Tesla batteries.

Not really sure what point you're trying to make here. Tesla is probably the only automaker (outside of china) that builds their own cells and battery packs in-house.

Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

#225

Post by gamblor956 »

gibolt wrote: post #208
clouddrover wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you're arguing that Hyundai beats Tesla on price and efficiency even when Hyundai's not really trying? What will happen to Tesla when Hyundai really tries?

The quality also comes nowhere close to a Tesla. While it makes a good commuter car, it is strictly not on the same playing field as a model 3, other than price and propulsion method.

The quality also comes nowhere close to a Tesla. While it makes a good commuter car, it is strictly not on the same playing field as a model 3, other than price and propulsion method.

Agreed. The Kona's fit and finish is miles ahead of the Model 3, and the interior comfort is the same for...1/4 the cost of the Model 3? Tesla's got quite a bit of work cut out for it if it hopes for the $35k Model 3 to stand a chance in the marketplace, since it'll being facing a ton of competition by the time it comes out (if ever).

Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

#226

Post by gamblor956 »

lazyjones wrote: post #217
beatgammit wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, there are plenty of avenues for Tesla to increase profit, such as: - new vehicle markets (def. semi trucks, perhaps boats and trains as well) - solar - military They don't have a ton of baggage like their competitors, so they can pivot their battery business in a variety of ways without too much additional investment. The real question is if they can stay ahead of competition as they expand.

> The real question is if they can stay ahead of competition as they expand. So far they have not only expanded their lead (e.g. Nissan Leaf used to be a bestseller), they've also proven that they got their priorities right from the start. Look at the new Audi e-tron, the Mercedes GLC and the i-Pace: they're all suffering from horrible aerodynamics that cost them 20% or more range at freeway speeds compared to Teslas…

Nissan has sold nearly every Leaf it has ever made. It simply doesn't make many of them, since it was first intended to be a compliance car and a loss leader for the brand.

You can't even buy a Leaf in most of the country, so if you were to scale up sales of the Leaf to the same geographic territory as Tesla sells to, the sales would be about comparable.

Tesla apparently did proper planning while the big car makers are just trying to produce their usual cars with electric engines.

Ah, proper planning. That certainly explains the billion-dollar line collecting dust, the year-long delay on every model, and their inability to properly deliver finished cars to their customers when promised (i.e., basic logistics). The cars you've mentioned aren't meant to have maximum range at high speeds; they're meant to have X range at commuter speeds while providing a luxurious ride. You'll also have to demonstrate (with cites) that the aerodynamics will cost them 20% of posted range, since those aerodynamics have already been factored into their range as part of the federally-mandated testing.

Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

#227

Post by gamblor956 »

zaroth wrote: post #179
gamblor956 wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know quite a few Tesla owners, and they all love the idea of the car far more than the actual cars themselves. After about a week, reality sets in and the misaligned panels, haphazardly responsive touchscreen, and relatively pedestrian interior furnishings start becoming noticeable. After about 2 weeks, the Tesla owners who don't live in homes (i.e., condo/apartment dwellers) even start to get annoyed at the chargi…

As a Model 3 owner, I have never been happier or more impressed with any car I have ever driven. It’s more fun to drive than my old Camero SS. It’s more comfortable than my old Infiniti. I absolutely love the interior aesthetic. And I just paid $3,500 to PPF wrap it because I think it’s absolutely gorgeous and I want to keep it looking that way. Oh, and I paid $45k not $65k, and it saves me at least $100 a month on t…

I rode in a Model 3 several times this past weekend and my Camry 3 all this week. They are absolutely on par comfort-wise. Can't compare to an Infiniti since I've never ridden in one, but the Model 3 can't hold a candle to the Lexus's, BMW's, or Audi's I've ridden in.

Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

#228

Post by gamblor956 »

mulmen wrote: post #121
gamblor956 wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you might need to brush up on your understanding of demand elasticity curves. Tesla is dropping the sticker price of their vehicles because they think that demand for their cars is at least somewhat elastic with respect to sticker price, and they're in a better position than you or me to have the data and analysis on this. (Tesla has also announced that this is why they're dropping the price so I'm not sure w…

Or: they’re dropping the sticker price to keep the overall cost of the vehicle stable or lower to meet demand. Economies of scale allow them to do this.

Or: since the car is actually more expensive out-of-pocket even after the price "drop", they're simply doing this to reduce the sticker price they quote on all of their marketing materials.

Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

#229

Post by adamqureshi »

iso1337 wrote: post #223
anthonybsd wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Tesla is the ONLY player with a direct to consumer model You are saying it like it's necessarily a good thing.

Not sure why the gp is being downvoted so much specifically in regards to the DTC comment. There was just a decently-sized HN thread about how the current non-direct to customer model is not the best for either the car buyer or the manufacturer. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18790480

Yeah. What gives.

Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

#230

Post by adamqureshi »

anthonybsd wrote: post #195
adamqureshi wrote: post #173

Tesla is the ONLY player with a direct to consumer model. They are a native EV start up. All others right now are legacy car makers (non native) using the old franchise distribution model. Tesla OS is its bread and butter. They built the vehicle from scratch for EV. They effectively "PULLED" ever other car maker into the MIX. The legacy car makers had no other choice but to jump into the fray and take their chances.

>Tesla is the ONLY player with a direct to consumer model You are saying it like it's necessarily a good thing.

A fundamental principle of competition is that consumers – not regulation – should determine what they buy and how they buy it. Consumers may benefit from the ability to buy cars directly from manufacturers – whether they are shopping for luxury cars or economy vehicles. The same competition principles should apply in either case. States should allow consumers to choose not only the cars they buy, but also how they buy them.
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