Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

#81

Post by qroshan » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 6:45 PM UTC

golfer wrote: post #46

wnorris wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The market for EVs is expanding. As Tesla starts shipping worldwide they will find the sweet spot for the US. Big takeaway here is they are very profitable producing at current rates. As they bring out new models they will continue to grow at 30-50% per year.

> "they are very profitable producing at current rates" You don't know that. They had one big, profitable, immaculate quarter in Q3 by pulling all demand forward and using every accounting trick in the book to show profit. There is no guarantee there will be another quarter like that. In fact, if Tesla's earnings history shows anything, it's that losses will be even bigger than before.

Bingo! Q3 and Q4 numbers should absolutely be taken with a grain of salt. It was a confluence of all positive points. a) Accounting b) Pent up demand for larger priced vehicles c) Peak Economy

Going forward, a) Weakened Global Economy b) Everyone who is passionate about owning Tesla has bought one.

Sustainable demand and profit will be clearer in 2019 Q2 and forward.

I can make a public bet that it wouldn't be greater than $150 Million per quarter

Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

#82

Post by gamblor956 » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 6:45 PM UTC

tw04 wrote: post #20

pkaye wrote: post #5

Another thing is the pre 2017 car-pool stickers for electric cars are expiring in the bay area. The newer stickers have income caps of $150k (single filing) or $300k (joint filing). I wonder what the impact will be on Tesla? The first change helps them but the second hurts them.

Did they give any justification for the change? It makes absolutely no sense to me why you'd put an income cap on that - don't you wan to encourage EVERYONE to burn less fossil fuels, REGARDLESS of income?

Why should everyone else pay for the rich to get a tax break and free usage of HOV lanes? They're the ones who can most afford to pay for those things, and the ones most likely to want to buy a vehicle for bragging rights.

Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

#83

Post by dsfyu404ed » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 6:45 PM UTC

mulmen wrote: post #72

sandworm101 wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The pot smoking and twitter insults also dont help.

I don’t really see the problem with the pot smoking honestly, why is anyone wound up about that? Do you care if he drinks or smokes cigarettes? What about his workout routine? Twitter insults aren’t impressive.

Regardless of how you feel about smoking pot the CEO of a publicly traded company is expected to be prudent enough to avoid doing things that are federally illegal on camera with the beforehand knowledge that the footage will be made public.

I personally don't care what Elon, or anyone does in his spare time but smoking pot on TV (or podcast, basically the same thing since both are going to be broadcast to viewers) shows a willingness to take risks with the wrong amount of upsides relative to their downsides and wall street doesn't like that.

Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

#84

Post by mulmen » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 6:46 PM UTC

twblalock wrote: post #74

luckydata wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Competition has been arriving for quite a while though. Having just bought a Tesla, I can tell you I'm starting to appreciate more than just intellectually the huge network of chargers and other infrastructure that company has laid out. It's not perfect but anyone else wanting to play in this market will need the same, and Jaguar is in no position to do it. I don't think anyone at Tesla is losing any sleep over Jagua…

Other brands have dealerships all over the country where they could install chargers. I'd say the barrier to doing that is pretty low. For example, if every BMW or Audi dealership had some charging spots for owners of their cars, it would probably have more nationwide coverage than Tesla's Supercharger network. The dealerships are also frequently located in convenient places near major highway exits, etc.

I live in Seattle, east of here there is one BMW dealer on my way home and next closest BMW dealer is in Boise, Idaho. I can’t drive to my home town and visit a dealership. That means an electric BMW would need a range of 1,000-1,200 miles to be remotely comparable to an ICE car or Tesla.

Putting universal chargers at existing gas stations or buying an entire brand and converting to charging makes way more sense.

Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

#85

Post by luckydata » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 6:46 PM UTC

twblalock wrote: post #74

luckydata wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Competition has been arriving for quite a while though. Having just bought a Tesla, I can tell you I'm starting to appreciate more than just intellectually the huge network of chargers and other infrastructure that company has laid out. It's not perfect but anyone else wanting to play in this market will need the same, and Jaguar is in no position to do it. I don't think anyone at Tesla is losing any sleep over Jagua…

Other brands have dealerships all over the country where they could install chargers. I'd say the barrier to doing that is pretty low. For example, if every BMW or Audi dealership had some charging spots for owners of their cars, it would probably have more nationwide coverage than Tesla's Supercharger network. The dealerships are also frequently located in convenient places near major highway exits, etc.

You don't go charge a car to a dealership though. I charged mine yesterday in the parking structure next to the mall in Colma while getting ice cream with my son. Sorry but no, that's not a valid suggestion.

Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

#86

Post by detaro » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 6:46 PM UTC

mulmen wrote: post #72

sandworm101 wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The pot smoking and twitter insults also dont help.

I don’t really see the problem with the pot smoking honestly, why is anyone wound up about that? Do you care if he drinks or smokes cigarettes? What about his workout routine? Twitter insults aren’t impressive.

More relevant to SpaceX: It was notable that the CEO of a defense contractor publicly uses drugs, since that sector is fairly strict about these things. Smoking weed is a problem for security clearances etc?

Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

#87

Post by Jarbooski » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 6:47 PM UTC

andrewtbham wrote: post #64

golfer wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People are skeptical of Tesla because people are skeptical of Elon. His dozens of misleading statements and half-truths over the years have caught up with him.

This narrative doesn't resonate with me. Forward looking statements are speculative, especially when you're innovating new technologies. I personally trust Elon Musk and I am a large investor. I don't expect him to hit all his targets, but I trust him to only raise money on the heels of good news.

There's a difference between forward looking statements and claiming you have technology that doesn't exist.

Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

#88

Post by ivraatiems » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 6:47 PM UTC

mav3rick wrote: post #79

ivraatiems wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Characterizing lying to the SEC and calling a Thai cave rescuer a "pedo" as such is stretching the definition of "forward-looking statement." Musk has always been largely bluster, but now the bluster is hurting people, and his companies as well. He's the biggest liability Tesla has. I don't know what he's done to earn my trust, or any investor's.

If bluster results in the first truly desirable EV cars and the first autonomous reusable rocket then more bluster please. The rage machine against Elon here is preposterous. At the end of the day , is he making the world a better place ?. No amount of contrived answers involving Twitter can change the vehement "Yes" to that question.

> At the end of the day, is he making the world a better place?

With rare exception, I don't subscribe to the idea of "key men" in general, and especially not in this case. Even if I did, I don't think that Musk is acting in a way that makes him an asset.

I agree that Tesla, for instance, is doing good and important work. However, I think attributing Tesla's success, and net impact on the world to Musk alone is unsupported by evidence. That's because aside from initial investment/PR, and sufficient cult of personality to inspire people to work for him at the start, I don't see what Elon Musk is contributing to the company's work at this point. In fact, I see him as a liability and I think Tesla would be better off without him.

Candidly, I also believe that if Musk was less driven by his own ego, as he appears to be, he'd see that and step aside.

Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

#89

Post by luckydata » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 6:48 PM UTC

gamblor956 wrote: post #66

luckydata wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Competition has been arriving for quite a while though. Having just bought a Tesla, I can tell you I'm starting to appreciate more than just intellectually the huge network of chargers and other infrastructure that company has laid out. It's not perfect but anyone else wanting to play in this market will need the same, and Jaguar is in no position to do it. I don't think anyone at Tesla is losing any sleep over Jagua…

I live in a nice part of LA and I see as many iPace's as Teslas, and the iPace has only been available for about 3 months locally. And the iPace owners are absolutely glowing in their reviews of the car in a way I've never heard Tesla owners get. Indeed--while most Tesla owners I know talk their heads off about the charging network[1], they tend to be defensive about the actual quality of the car itself in ways that…

We must be living on a different planet then if you never heard a Tesla owner go on and on about how much they love their cars. Before buying one 4 days ago I had plenty of that kind of experience.

Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

#90

Post by pkaye » Wed, Jan 02, 2019, 6:48 PM UTC

saagarjha wrote: post #15

pkaye wrote: post #5

Another thing is the pre 2017 car-pool stickers for electric cars are expiring in the bay area. The newer stickers have income caps of $150k (single filing) or $300k (joint filing). I wonder what the impact will be on Tesla? The first change helps them but the second hurts them.

Wait, what? I was not aware of this. I guess driving in the carpool lane today was not a great idea…

Looks like my understanding was not entirely correct but there is an income cap for the rebate. And clean air vehicles older than 2017 will lose car pool lane access. They change the sticker color to help identify.