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Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

bloomberg.com

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Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

#71

Post by Rapzid »

luckydata wrote: post #53
johnvanommen wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once Jaguar, Porsche and Audi are able to produce electric cars in quantity, things are going to get interesting. For instance, I was recently looking at the Jaguar I-Pace, and was stunned by how long the wait and how high the markups are. Clearly there's a demand for a $100,000 electric car, but things are going to get difficult for Tesla once the competition arrives.

Competition has been arriving for quite a while though. Having just bought a Tesla, I can tell you I'm starting to appreciate more than just intellectually the huge network of chargers and other infrastructure that company has laid out. It's not perfect but anyone else wanting to play in this market will need the same, and Jaguar is in no position to do it. I don't think anyone at Tesla is losing any sleep over Jagua…

Only path forward is to share the market. Japan and Europe will enter the market in a big way without the logistics friction Tesla is so often in the news for.

But yes... I expect Toyota to have more affordable TCO, particularly on the maintenance side where Tesla gets ripped often. The will need to adjust to be competitive outside the luxury market.

Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

#72

Post by mulmen »

sandworm101 wrote: post #56
golfer wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People are skeptical of Tesla because people are skeptical of Elon. His dozens of misleading statements and half-truths over the years have caught up with him.

The pot smoking and twitter insults also dont help.

I don’t really see the problem with the pot smoking honestly, why is anyone wound up about that? Do you care if he drinks or smokes cigarettes? What about his workout routine?

Twitter insults aren’t impressive.

Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

#73

Post by microtherion »

MBCook wrote: post #8
qroshan wrote: post #3

Tesla is definitely hitting the demand ceiling. It's a good thing Musk isn't producing 10000 M3 per week. The current rate of ~4500 per week is enough to meet demand. In fact, expect continuous price drops from Tesla as it struggles to drum up enthusiasm

I’m not pro-Tesla, I think they’re horribly mismanaged, but let’s be real. The Model 3 is selling well, and ONLY in the US. Even if they hit peak demand they can just start selling to Europe and China (planned for later this year) and they’ll have plenty of new customers.

> Even if they hit peak demand they can just start selling to Europe and China

To what extent would they have to invest in charger networks there, though?

Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

#74

Post by twblalock »

luckydata wrote: post #53
johnvanommen wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once Jaguar, Porsche and Audi are able to produce electric cars in quantity, things are going to get interesting. For instance, I was recently looking at the Jaguar I-Pace, and was stunned by how long the wait and how high the markups are. Clearly there's a demand for a $100,000 electric car, but things are going to get difficult for Tesla once the competition arrives.

Competition has been arriving for quite a while though. Having just bought a Tesla, I can tell you I'm starting to appreciate more than just intellectually the huge network of chargers and other infrastructure that company has laid out. It's not perfect but anyone else wanting to play in this market will need the same, and Jaguar is in no position to do it. I don't think anyone at Tesla is losing any sleep over Jagua…

Other brands have dealerships all over the country where they could install chargers. I'd say the barrier to doing that is pretty low.

For example, if every BMW or Audi dealership had some charging spots for owners of their cars, it would probably have more nationwide coverage than Tesla's Supercharger network. The dealerships are also frequently located in convenient places near major highway exits, etc.

Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

#75

Post by [deleted] »

wnorris wrote: post #10
bryanlarsen wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Demand ceiling for the US or for the world? I suspect they've hit the former, but that there's a lot of demand in the latter.

The market for EVs is expanding. As Tesla starts shipping worldwide they will find the sweet spot for the US. Big takeaway here is they are very profitable producing at current rates. As they bring out new models they will continue to grow at 30-50% per year.

[deleted]

Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

#76

Post by mulmen »

gamblor956 wrote: post #67
300bps wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Q32018: 55,800 Model 3s delivered. Q42018: 63,100 Model 3s delivered. That's a 13% growth rate in a single quarter which is more than 50% growth rate annualized.

If Tesla was expecting 50% annualized growth, or even growth comparable to their recent historical trends, they would not have cut the price tag on every model of car they sell.

That... isn’t how economies of scale or elasticity of demand work.

Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

#77

Post by tivert »

dqpb wrote: post #48
wnorris wrote: post #4

The production and delivery numbers they came out with were very good and higher than most had expected. These numbers will allow them another profitable Q4 likely higher than their Q3 numbers. The price cuts are likely to impact margins, but is in line with what Tesla had done with the Model S and X as production efficiencies allow them to reduce manufacturing costs. The reaction looks like a big overreaction as the…

My feeling is that there is a coordinated media attack against major US tech companies.

> My feeling is that there is a coordinated media attack against major US tech companies.

Or the media has stopped looking at them through the rose-colored glasses of tech-optimism, and started seeing them as what they are: massive, powerful corporations that are capable of harm and dishonesty in addition to innovation.

Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

#78

Post by JumpCrisscross »

qroshan wrote: post #22
wnorris wrote: post #4

The production and delivery numbers they came out with were very good and higher than most had expected. These numbers will allow them another profitable Q4 likely higher than their Q3 numbers. The price cuts are likely to impact margins, but is in line with what Tesla had done with the Model S and X as production efficiencies allow them to reduce manufacturing costs. The reaction looks like a big overreaction as the…

At $50B Market Cap, Tesla should be delivering at least $2B Annual profits. It's clear Tesla has run through higher margin demand. There aren't many people in the world who can afford a $50,000 car. Tesla is a niche market car, but priced as a mass market (like iPhones) product. Expect Tesla's sustainable profit to be around $500 Mil per year and it's share price must be cut in half to justify that

> At $50B Market Cap, Tesla should be delivering at least $2B Annual profits

P/E ratios aren’t effective for high-growth or quickly-declining companies. The PEG ratio attempts to compensate for this.

Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

#79

Post by mav3rick »

ivraatiems wrote: post #69
andrewtbham wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This narrative doesn't resonate with me. Forward looking statements are speculative, especially when you're innovating new technologies. I personally trust Elon Musk and I am a large investor. I don't expect him to hit all his targets, but I trust him to only raise money on the heels of good news.

Characterizing lying to the SEC and calling a Thai cave rescuer a "pedo" as such is stretching the definition of "forward-looking statement." Musk has always been largely bluster, but now the bluster is hurting people, and his companies as well. He's the biggest liability Tesla has. I don't know what he's done to earn my trust, or any investor's.

If bluster results in the first truly desirable EV cars and the first autonomous reusable rocket then more bluster please. The rage machine against Elon here is preposterous. At the end of the day , is he making the world a better place ?. No amount of contrived answers involving Twitter can change the vehement "Yes" to that question.

Re: Tesla cuts prices as Model 3 deliveries narrowly miss estimates

#80

Post by gamblor956 »

wnorris wrote: post #25
MBCook wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not pro-Tesla, I think they’re horribly mismanaged, but let’s be real. The Model 3 is selling well, and ONLY in the US. Even if they hit peak demand they can just start selling to Europe and China (planned for later this year) and they’ll have plenty of new customers.

Tesla has made mistakes...especially Elon's timelines. Those have gotten better of late. That aside, one has to also consider the limited number of stores that Tesla has at this point in time. As they increases the number of stores their market reach will increase. Combine this with new global markets and it is clear that they will do fine for at least the next couple years.

The story here in the market is that Tesla has already saturated the big markets in the US for EVs--namely, highly populated metropolitan centers. While this is a big country, the rest of America is very spread out, and the ROI on building more stores will be far lower.
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