Probably not. Software has a very low producer to consumer ratio.
The next big blue collar job is coding (2017)
71–80 of 101 posts
Re: The next big blue collar job is coding (2017)
#72"But any blue-collar coder will be plenty qualified to sling JavaScript for their local bank. " Even highly trained software engineers can barely get security correct. What makes this journalist think somebody with a few years of high school programming can do any better? I'm not sure I buy the "blue collar coder" prediction. At least not in the US. That type of work is currently outsourced to India and parts of Eas…
> Even highly trained software engineers can barely get security correct. What makes this journalist think somebody with a few years of high school programming can do any better?
They don't have to get it better. If paying top dollar doesn't guarantee results, then why not save money?
> are these US-based blue-collar coders going to be any more effective than off-shoring?
Yes, many companies either have a bias against off-shoring employees or they want a butt in a chair.
> And within the US, code already permeates other professional roles.
So you don't need specialist programmers. So a manufacturer needn't bring in a highly paid consultant to build out a workflow system; they likely have talent in-house.
Hell, I'm a developer and some of the systems I use (for example, my finances) are run in a spreadsheet with a few clever functions. I'm always dreaming of writing proper software, but the truth is, I'd spend weeks to get a sad % of the functionality Google Sheets gives me. And with tools like Airtable, pretty rich UIs are doable. Software is indeed eating the world, but it's also eating software developers.
Re: The next big blue collar job is coding (2017)
#73This topic recycles on HN pretty frequently. I don't believe it. I have many friends that aren't coders and it helps me remember how big the skill gap is. Unless you've done substantial training, code seems just as opaque as medicine, or law, or most fields of engineering. Any job that requires substantial training and trust not to royally screw everything up pays well. Perhaps 30% of the population has the creativit…
> If coding was going to be commoditised it would have happened decades ago
I don't understand how coding would have been commoditised literally decades ago... when the reality is that not so long ago the demand has increased exponentially. Plus only now the supply is starting to pick up - remember you have countries (like China or India) pumping millions of programmers per year, and these numbers will increase - due to internet, free access to information, and of course the demand.
Re: The next big blue collar job is coding (2017)
#74"But any blue-collar coder will be plenty qualified to sling JavaScript for their local bank. " Even highly trained software engineers can barely get security correct. What makes this journalist think somebody with a few years of high school programming can do any better? I'm not sure I buy the "blue collar coder" prediction. At least not in the US. That type of work is currently outsourced to India and parts of Eas…
For that matter, there aren't a lot of local banks anymore, either. Post-2008 regulatory reforms killed them all off.
Much ado is made about how out the American intelligentsia are out of touch and I think this line is a pretty good example of why. Taleb would have a field day with this writer
Re: The next big blue collar job is coding (2017)
#75Earlier quoted context omitted.
It wouldn't surprise me. They cram a ton of material into a handful of greuling rushed weeks. Then again apparently many if not most devs leave college with a four year CS degree and can't code either, so maybe it's just a reflection of typical ability.
The point of a CS degree isn't to teach you to code. Also the amount of time spent in class is roughly equivalent between a 4 year CS degree and a rigorous, full-time bootcamp. 2 hrs of class, 4 days/week, 28 weeks/year in most universities vs. ~10 hrs/day, 6 days/week over 13-17 weeks in bootcamps.
Personally, I'm anti-bootcamp, but I'd argue that many bootcampers are more employable in a junior role on day 0 than many CS grads. (Perhaps the solution is a bootcampish "finishing school" for CS grads where they are taught an in-demand framework or 2?)
Re: The next big blue collar job is coding (2017)
#76Earlier quoted context omitted.
“Even highly trained software engineers can barely get security correct. What makes this journalist think somebody with a few years of high school programming can do any better?” Why would they have to be better? You just made very point here. Some high schooler with a boot camp can do just as well as many “highly trained software engineers”.
First, why don't we fix the cost of medical care by letting vocational schools train doctors? After all, there are high-profile medical errors and the world goes on. (In case the sarcasm isn't obvious, my point is that the existence of errors by professionals doesn't mean the entire system would be just as good if staffed by non-professionals.)
Actually, we kind of do, in physician assistants. Having in recent years received most of my medical care, including emergency care, from PAs, and only rarely seen an MD, I have to say, I'm not sure you're doing a great job supporting your case - the care I've received from PAs has in no respect been below the standard I'd expect to receive from MDs.
Re: The next big blue collar job is coding (2017)
#77Bootcamps I swear train cargo cult programmers. It may work for some, but in my experience they lack the understanding of why they are typing what they are typing. They can go through the motions of what they've been trained to do, but they get stuck extremely easily and have no idea how to help themselves. So then when you start explaining why their program does not work, their eyes glaze over when you start talking…
I think it's a bit better than cargo culting; I'd say it's more like assembly line work. They learn a series of steps for a typically shaped problem.
Re: The next big blue collar job is coding (2017)
#78The article presents the idea of a future mass pool of novice coders who don't (or don't need to) level up, that can take care of simple things like "manage the login page". I think that underestimates the complexity of code. A lot of things could go wrong if you have the majority of your codebase being worked on by novices, no matter how simple the feature. The simplest feature can also be: a single point of failure…
> I don't think a factory line approach works for building software.
Kanban is a factory-line approach, and also the basis of every commonly accepted best practice in software engineering today. I reserve comment on whether that argues for or against the point of yours that I've quoted, but certainly you'll understand why I note that point is likely to be a controversial one.
Re: The next big blue collar job is coding (2017)
#79Earlier quoted context omitted.
First, why don't we fix the cost of medical care by letting vocational schools train doctors? After all, there are high-profile medical errors and the world goes on. (In case the sarcasm isn't obvious, my point is that the existence of errors by professionals doesn't mean the entire system would be just as good if staffed by non-professionals.)
Actually, we kind of do, in physician assistants. Having in recent years received most of my medical care, including emergency care, from PAs, and only rarely seen an MD, I have to say, I'm not sure you're doing a great job supporting your case - the care I've received from PAs has in no respect been below the standard I'd expect to receive from MDs.
I don't think the "blue collar" label applies to physician assistants.
https://www.google.com/search?q=physician+assistant+training
Re: The next big blue collar job is coding (2017)
#80Earlier quoted context omitted.
It wouldn't surprise me. They cram a ton of material into a handful of greuling rushed weeks. Then again apparently many if not most devs leave college with a four year CS degree and can't code either, so maybe it's just a reflection of typical ability.
The point of a CS degree isn't to teach you to code. Also the amount of time spent in class is roughly equivalent between a 4 year CS degree and a rigorous, full-time bootcamp. 2 hrs of class, 4 days/week, 28 weeks/year in most universities vs. ~10 hrs/day, 6 days/week over 13-17 weeks in bootcamps.
This is a false equivalency because in a bootcamp most of the learning is in class. In a CS degree program most of it is not.
At a top university, students put in 60 hours a week for 16 weeks every semester.