2. Those jobs are already getting eaten up by more flexible products and tooling. This will accelerate, because the hiring firms aren't trying to innovate here, just keep up with their industries. As the requirements are relatively stable, some shops will spin off their internal products into separate businesses and others will buy those instead of building their own.
3. The underlying analogy of a blue collar programmer is closer to a plumber or electrician. The difference is that our tools are way smarter and getting smarter than wire or pipe.