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As Bitcoin Sinks, Industry Startups Are Forced to Cut Back

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Re: As Bitcoin Sinks, Industry Startups Are Forced to Cut Back

#81
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't bitcoin costs adjust to a shrinking miner population as well as it adjusts for a growing one? If so, the answer is never. As people give-up, the costs for the remaining ones reduce so that at some point it's lucrative again. The interesting question is at what price people will stop speculating on its price and run to an exit? I don't think anybody can answer this one.

The difference is that even if the difficulty adjusts, there will be dormant ASICs waiting to be used. If the price lowers enough and enough ASICs are out on the bench, it’ll at one point becoming economically beneficial to turn them all on and attack the network rather than having them collect dust and depreciate.

Getting those ASICs from where they are unused to where someone can use them to attack the network is not a simple task. The only way this becomes possible is if the current owner of the hardware decides to attack the network. Even to buy the hardware will require a large capital input, let's at you can buy $1m worth of hardware and ship it to your location within 7 days (shipping and setup), you then need to run it (electricity cost) and hope that you can recoup costs plus profit by double spending. The only option to double spend and profit is to double spend on an exchange and withdraw fiat currency before the exchange realises, the speed at which fiat transfers work this is highly unlikely.

Re: As Bitcoin Sinks, Industry Startups Are Forced to Cut Back

#82
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitcoin will rise again. Bitcoin removes the need to trust a bookie/agent to move money offshore. Whenever flow of money is possible between a safe haven and a corrupt/socialist big country with high tax rate/more population burden. Money flows to the safe heaven. Bitcoin is one such way to move money from african nations/india/china to safe haven like Switzerland, Singapore, UK etc... I am talking about illict gains…

First of all the word you're looking for is haven (as in a harbor), not heaven. Secondly, are you saying that bitcoin exists solely for the purpose of money laundering and tax evasion?

No, but it certainly can be used for money laundering and tax evasion.

It removes the need to trust a bookie or agent to move money offshore.

There are lawyers/accountants in Switzerland and Hong Kong who will help you launder money from third world countries.

Moving your assets offshore without local government knowing is not a crime in other country!

Edit: why downvotes? What's wrong?

Re: As Bitcoin Sinks, Industry Startups Are Forced to Cut Back

#83
post #74
post #73

The most remarkable thing about BTC is diffusion of responsibility. If it was issued and marketed by a single entity the participants would be in hot water by now for violating the Securities and Exchange laws. However here we had one non-affiliated group of bigger miners issuing the coins and another group of volunteer enthusiasts hyping them up. Since the second group was not hired by the first, the first group can…

I assert that the diffusion of responsibility is a key feature of decentralized technology precisely because it renders us unable to "nip it in the bud".

Unfortunately, it does so for everybody. Including people who have a strong interest in the world not seeing Bitcoin as scam central. It all strikes me as a classic tragedy of the commons.

Re: As Bitcoin Sinks, Industry Startups Are Forced to Cut Back

#84

At least this might provide pressure to reduce the environmental impact of mining, if only to reduce costs.

I see this arguments being thrown all the time, but I also like the argument that current infrastructures needed to run "previous-gen" currencies are actually burning way more[1]. While I wait for concrete research to estimate how much energy was wasted in the creation and maintenance process of these, I will abstain from spreading the FUD.

[1]: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Myths#Bitcoin_mining_is_a_waste_o...

Re: As Bitcoin Sinks, Industry Startups Are Forced to Cut Back

#85
post #74
post #73

The most remarkable thing about BTC is diffusion of responsibility. If it was issued and marketed by a single entity the participants would be in hot water by now for violating the Securities and Exchange laws. However here we had one non-affiliated group of bigger miners issuing the coins and another group of volunteer enthusiasts hyping them up. Since the second group was not hired by the first, the first group can…

I assert that the diffusion of responsibility is a key feature of decentralized technology precisely because it renders us unable to "nip it in the bud".

Not really. When the MPAA wanted action taken on torrented movies, they didn’t just throw their hands up in the air and go “whelp, it’s decentralized!“, they went after the authors of the protocol, the ISPs, hell even domain name registrars (that listed torrent websites). You can still torrent films, but you could get prosecuted or fined. Furthermore, some content is completely censored from torrent sites.

All that to say, it’s not clear to me that “decentralized technology” can prevent the very human process of holding others accountable. It does slow down that process for now, since the software obfuscates what’s going on (who’s doing what), but regulators will understand how the tech works eventually...

Re: As Bitcoin Sinks, Industry Startups Are Forced to Cut Back

#86
post #53
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you cash out on this kind of attack if by your own actions you're crashing the value of the coin?

Short it.

Or double spend. E.g. you could send coins to an exchange, cash out, then mine off an old block to get your coins back.

Re: As Bitcoin Sinks, Industry Startups Are Forced to Cut Back

#87
post #73

The most remarkable thing about BTC is diffusion of responsibility. If it was issued and marketed by a single entity the participants would be in hot water by now for violating the Securities and Exchange laws. However here we had one non-affiliated group of bigger miners issuing the coins and another group of volunteer enthusiasts hyping them up. Since the second group was not hired by the first, the first group can…

Preston Byrne pointed out since there is no pyramid, this can’t be called a Ponzi scheme. It deserves a new name, the “Nakamoto scheme”:

https://prestonbyrne.com/2017/12/08/bitcoin_ponzi/

Re: As Bitcoin Sinks, Industry Startups Are Forced to Cut Back

#88

Ah, the Bloomberg and TechCrunch bottom signals I’m looking for.

A year ago, I was explaining to family why crypto was a thing. This year I'm explaining why it crashed and why it's to be avoided. Also, why blockchain and crypto are not the same thing. There are many who participated in the 2017 speculation that will actively avoid and advise against participation this go around. The bubble popped and it will be many years before we see worthy investments take shape.

I think another factor is that we've passed peak uncritical press coverage. Never again will there be as large an influx of media-driven naive optimists who think that the price will only go up.

Re: As Bitcoin Sinks, Industry Startups Are Forced to Cut Back

#89
post #66

The discussion of blockchain tech on HN is puzzling to me. On the matter of value: I suspect that if we find ourselves able to send a message back in time two years (when BTC was less than $1,000 USD) and report that the price is now over $3,700, that we'll find this message to be met with an understanding that this is, at least, a validation of the use of blockchain tech as a store of value. I suspect that if we des…

You're reading way too hard into this.

It skyrocketed to ~$20K and then plummeted to here because, plainly, it was a vehicle to manipulate morons out of their money. That's worth at least some "cynicism and darkness", and should be prompting our community to contemplate how, going forward, we can avoid hurting the tech illiterate masses when our own irrational exuberance, in concert with the more classically opportunistic and morally deficient business types, leads to damaging outcomes.

This is in fact my gripe with the tech community more generally: we have demonstrated ourselves to be chronically incapable of tempering the innovative instinct with an even baseline understanding of the realities of human nature. And this is why we're becoming increasingly more responsible for breaking the world.

Re: As Bitcoin Sinks, Industry Startups Are Forced to Cut Back

#90
post #69
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unprofitable to operate in friendly conditions* If you can flip a switch and 10x the hashrate of a network, all under your control, and you don’t care about killing the chain in your attack, it may be a perfect exit for you if you no longer want to play the mining game. There’s actually a mining pool doing something like this on smaller PoW bitcoins https://sharkpool.cash (not associated, just think it’s interesting)

Any large miner will be profitable mining long before they have more dormant hashing power to 51% bitcoin.

Can you explain why this is the case, especially when the value of BTC is declining? The capital costs (ASICs and the power hookups) are sunk costs, and if it stops being profitable to opwerate all the ASICs honestly, or even to operate any of them if you don't have the lowest cost per hash on the network, then it may be quite valuable to attack the network and barely valuable at all to continue mining normally.
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