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Evan Spiegel’s Imperious Style Made Snapchat a Success Until Users Fled

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31–40 of 79 posts

Re: Evan Spiegel’s Imperious Style Made Snapchat a Success Until Users Fled

#31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Snap, and also Twitter, are in a bit of a bind. They can't change anything without alienating some of their most passionate users, but if they change nothing they will stagnate and cede all of the possible benefits of innovation to their competitors. A company that lets its competitors come up with all the new ideas is probably not going to survive very long. It's understandable that Snap wanted to improve its design…

> A company that lets its competitors come up with all the new ideas is probably not going to survive very long. They can just acquire those companies, which is the strategy used by Google, Facebook, Microsoft and other giants that are moving faster than startups now by deploying capital faster and better than ever before.

They can't easily afford to splurge on the best acquisitions at this point. Instagram cost $1 billion. YouTube cost $1.65 billion.

Snapchat is heading toward bankruptcy or a forced sale if they don't dramatically cut costs. They're down to $1.4b in cash (from $2b three quarters prior). They can't safely buy an Instagram at this point. Pretty soon they're going to be the $1-$2 billion acquisition.

Twitter is in much better financial condition of course, although a $1-$2 billion acquisition is still a huge chunk of change for their business ($6b in cash, ~$300m-$400m per year in profit). Twitter's problem is that their cash is precious, because their business doesn't generate a ton of it (they've been persistently hauling billions of cash around from their past funding days). That cash is a big safety buffer that they can't easily replace if they burn it. They can use their market cap of course, and shareholders will only tolerate so much of that at their size and given their non-growth context. Twitter needs to figure out what it wants to do before the market 'realizes' what they're actually worth (zero growth gets you an optimistic ~20 PE * $350m profit = $7 billion; a further 2/3 drop from here); it's similar to the old Yahoo scenario pre Alibaba (no growth, the market temporarily giving you an abnormally high valuation, a trapped product).

The giants are seemingly moving fast because they have comically obscene amounts of cash pouring in and can't figure out what to do with it (other than share buybacks ala Facebook, or other capital return programs; in Google's case, they're just piling it up or buying real estate). So they spray it all around. A billion dollar acquisition mistake is meaningless if you're Microsoft and generating ~$40b in operating income (next four quarters). For Snapchat, it'd be fatal.

Google's net tangible assets are up to $149 billion now. They're starting to look more like a financial company than a tech company. Like a private equity company that happens to own a lucrative search engine monopoly and a media company (YouTube). JP Morgan's net tangible assets by contrast are $182b and Bank of America is $170b.

Re: Evan Spiegel’s Imperious Style Made Snapchat a Success Until Users Fled

#32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A company that lets its competitors come up with all the new ideas is probably not going to survive very long. They can just acquire those companies, which is the strategy used by Google, Facebook, Microsoft and other giants that are moving faster than startups now by deploying capital faster and better than ever before.

They can't easily afford to splurge on the best acquisitions at this point. Instagram cost $1 billion. YouTube cost $1.65 billion. Snapchat is heading toward bankruptcy or a forced sale if they don't dramatically cut costs. They're down to $1.4b in cash (from $2b three quarters prior). They can't safely buy an Instagram at this point. Pretty soon they're going to be the $1-$2 billion acquisition. Twitter is in much b…

Sure, but I'm talking about buy competitors before they get to the 1B acq price, otherwise they're already close to Snap's size.

Agree with the rest. It's both interesting and troubling that the giants have so much cashflow that they continue consuming new companies for a long time without worry. All companies die eventually but we're in a whole new world with 1T market caps.

Re: Evan Spiegel’s Imperious Style Made Snapchat a Success Until Users Fled

#33
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They deliberately give you a bad quality photo and I don't know why. Snapchat takes a screenshot. It doesn't use the camera API on your phone as it should. So it doesn't get any of the processing which is integral to taking good photos on phones. Apple should reject it from the App Store for doing this, but for some reason they let them do it, as well as Instagram and Facebook.

Well it's almost certainly going to be faster (thumb to save latency) to run the camera in video mode and then snatch a frame when the user hits the button than the normal preview-stillshot way the phone takes pics natively. Cell phone OEMs differentiate with camera quality and so some run some pretty heavy post processing to make images come out okay. Snap probably cares more about quickly taking picture and the fil…

I wasn't under the impression that the difference of 1s in latency was a major problem for the Snap userbase. Do I misunderstand the product?

Re: Evan Spiegel’s Imperious Style Made Snapchat a Success Until Users Fled

#34

This may be a good time to buy Snap. I remember FB being worth $33B some time after going public.

$294 million operating loss on $297 million in revenue for their latest quarter.

Snap's operating picture is an accountant's nightmare.

By the time Facebook was five years old, fiscal 2009, they generated a $229m profit on $777m in sales. They turned profitable in the second half of their fourth year. Why? Relative financial discipline. Snap has taken the opposite approach, wild financial irresponsibility (no doubt encouraged by the fairly bubbly funding environment they got to enjoy).

By the time Facebook went public, they had been profitable for over three years. They generated a $1b profit on $3.7b in sales in 2011, the year prior to the IPO. The situation could hardly be any more different from Snap at IPO or today.

Re: Evan Spiegel’s Imperious Style Made Snapchat a Success Until Users Fled

#35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Snap, and also Twitter, are in a bit of a bind. They can't change anything without alienating some of their most passionate users, but if they change nothing they will stagnate and cede all of the possible benefits of innovation to their competitors. A company that lets its competitors come up with all the new ideas is probably not going to survive very long. It's understandable that Snap wanted to improve its design…

Twitter’s problems aren’t confusing: fix the abuse problem and add an edit button.

Twitter is a fundamentally 'narrow' product. A global chatroom for the 'in' crowd, no matter which in crowd that is. Yes, it's searchable, and historical, but fundamentally 99.9% of Twitter's functionality only exists if you're on it today, constantly.

I don't see how you can ever make it valuable in its current form to people who don't need to see this tweet or this thread before anyone else does. Hashtags are fundamentally, unalterably, different from usenet groups or message boards or even facebook groups. Content is less permanent, but not in an arguably "good" way as Snapchat's is.

Re: Evan Spiegel’s Imperious Style Made Snapchat a Success Until Users Fled

#36
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They deliberately give you a bad quality photo and I don't know why. Snapchat takes a screenshot. It doesn't use the camera API on your phone as it should. So it doesn't get any of the processing which is integral to taking good photos on phones. Apple should reject it from the App Store for doing this, but for some reason they let them do it, as well as Instagram and Facebook.

Well it's almost certainly going to be faster (thumb to save latency) to run the camera in video mode and then snatch a frame when the user hits the button than the normal preview-stillshot way the phone takes pics natively. Cell phone OEMs differentiate with camera quality and so some run some pretty heavy post processing to make images come out okay. Snap probably cares more about quickly taking picture and the fil…

Why is the latency of concern in Snapchat but not anywhere else? The native camera app isn't slow on modern phones.

Re: Evan Spiegel’s Imperious Style Made Snapchat a Success Until Users Fled

#37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They can't easily afford to splurge on the best acquisitions at this point. Instagram cost $1 billion. YouTube cost $1.65 billion. Snapchat is heading toward bankruptcy or a forced sale if they don't dramatically cut costs. They're down to $1.4b in cash (from $2b three quarters prior). They can't safely buy an Instagram at this point. Pretty soon they're going to be the $1-$2 billion acquisition. Twitter is in much b…

Sure, but I'm talking about buy competitors before they get to the 1B acq price, otherwise they're already close to Snap's size. Agree with the rest. It's both interesting and troubling that the giants have so much cashflow that they continue consuming new companies for a long time without worry. All companies die eventually but we're in a whole new world with 1T market caps.

Instagram had 30 million monthly active users when they were acquired. Roughly 1/10th the size of Snapchat today. It was the growth curve that caught Facebook's attention of course.

YouTube was a bleeding disaster of a business when Google scooped them up, for a price that was universally mocked as outrageously high. I'm skeptical even Twitter with their $6b in cash could absorb that type of mess and see it through.

The problem you run into, in trying to buy interesting competitors, is they're not for sale for cheap if they're actually any good. That's the specific reason Instagram went for what was considered a very high price. When growth looks that good, the VCs will fund you indefinitely, so the acquirer has to pay a massive premium. In the post Flickr era you can't buy Instagrams for $50m.

Re: Evan Spiegel’s Imperious Style Made Snapchat a Success Until Users Fled

#38
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They deliberately give you a bad quality photo and I don't know why. Snapchat takes a screenshot. It doesn't use the camera API on your phone as it should. So it doesn't get any of the processing which is integral to taking good photos on phones. Apple should reject it from the App Store for doing this, but for some reason they let them do it, as well as Instagram and Facebook.

OT, but how did you figure out how Snapchat takes pictures?

It's fairly obvious if you use the app.

Re: Evan Spiegel’s Imperious Style Made Snapchat a Success Until Users Fled

#39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Especially Snap's, as I don't remember anyone complaining about the interface. Surely you’re joking? I make software for a living and I was utterly and completely lost in Snapchat. Easily the most confusing software I’ve used in a long time.

You were not snaps target user

Indeed. Similar to how young people will read books while their parents barely finish the sensational short articles in a newspaper. They seem to be more willing to figure things out, especially combined with their tribal actions like going to great lengths to make sure that everything they wear is black, or has a certain logo on it, or that they only listen to particular music. If a particular social app has a gate, then it can be all the better for them. [1]

Not to say that making your app unnecessarily annoying is grounds for success! There were probably 500 apps on the very same day as Snapchat launched that you never heard about.

[1] No peer reviewed study or anything. Just, you know, kids.

Re: Evan Spiegel’s Imperious Style Made Snapchat a Success Until Users Fled

#40
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And they made it so smooth, too - just replace www with old! Considering, too, their incredible API, I have a lot of respect for the Reddit developers.

Not on mobile. I don't want to install the app, and the mobile site is basically a bunch of dark patterns piled on deliberately broken functionality. It's amazingly, and consciously terrible.

This. They really hate their non-app mobile users. Understandable but disappointed.
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