Thanks for the reply, and I think I agree with all the physical processes you describe, but I'm not convinced that your approximations are correct. I'm going to keep pushing a bit to see if we can resolve this as well.
[The surface temperature of the moon is] an absolute limit on the amount of incoming irradiance you can create to your object.
This is true for a black body, but why are you convinced this is true for the actual moon? I think we agree that a more reflective moon could have a lower surface temperature while increasing incoming irradiance on the earth. And we both agree that the moon is partially reflective. Doesn't this mean that the surface temperature is not an absolute limit?
I think the correct statement is that the intensity of light from the sun to the moon gives a limit on both the surface temperature of the moon (highest if we assume the moon is a blackbody) and a limit on the amount of sunlight reflected toward the earth (highest if we assume the moon is a perfect reflector).
Since the moon absorbs about 90% of the light incident on it, we can assume that the surface temperature is lower than it would be if it was a perfect black body, presumably reaching a temperature corresponding to a sun that was about 10% less strong. The 10% of light that is reflected, although diffused in all directions, is much more intense when viewed from earth than low energy blackbody radiation that is also emitted. We know this intuitively because the sunlit moon is much brighter at night than the non-sunlit portion, and because the visible light is more energetic than the infrared, but could integrate across the energy spectrum to find an exact answer.
As such, unless we are willing to make some additional assumptions, I don't think we can make any firm claim about the the maximum temperature achievable on the earth using lunar reflected sunlight based only on knowledge of the surface temperature of the moon. In practice, the scattered sunlight doesn't provide a lot of energy, so heating with it will be difficult. But it's energy incident on the earth that matters, not the temperature of the lunar surface.
Would you agree with this summary? Are there additional assumptions that you think should be added that would provide the tighter limit you want? Alternatively, is there something other than "[The surface temperature of the moon is]" that you think I should have substituted for "It's"?