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Knowledge from small number of debates outperforms wisdom of large crowds (2017)

arxiv.org

11–20 of 123 posts

Re: Knowledge from small number of debates outperforms wisdom of large crowds (2017)

#11
I think attributing the accuracy to debates is a rather hasty conclusion. I would love to see an experiment where the individual participants rated their confidence from 1 to 10, and only the highest confidence answer in each group was taken. My hunch is this would perform just as well (if not better) than post-discussion.

Re: Knowledge from small number of debates outperforms wisdom of large crowds (2017)

#12
Am I correct that they asked the same people the same questions 3 times?

It's no surprise that the 3rd time the answers were the best. I'd expect this to happen even if there was no debate (if not to the same degree).

> Each participant was provided with pen and an answer sheet linked to their seat number. The event’s speaker (author M.S.) conducted the crowd from the stage (Fig. 1A). In the first stage of the experiment, the speaker asked eight questions (Supplementary Table 1) and gave participants 20 seconds to respond to each of them (stage i1, left panel in Fig. 1A). Then, participants were instructed to organize in to groups of five based on a numerical code in their answer sheet (see Methods). The speaker repeated four of the eight questions and gave each group one minute to reach a consensus (stage c, middle panel in Fig. 1A ). Finally, the eight questions were presented again from stage and participants had 20 seconds to write down their individual estimate, which gave them a chance to revise their opinions and change their minds (stage i2, right panel in Fig. 1A). Participants also reported their confidence in their individual responses in a scale from 0 to 10.

Re: Knowledge from small number of debates outperforms wisdom of large crowds (2017)

#13
post #6

You can make a case that democracy is a grand application of “wisdom of large crowd”. But if that can easily and consistently outperformed then do we have better political system than democracy? What are the consequences of this?

Possibly the main benefit of democracy isn't that the crowd make wise voting decisions, it's that it makes politicians feel compelled to make wise decisions to save their careers.

Re: Knowledge from small number of debates outperforms wisdom of large crowds (2017)

#14
post #6

You can make a case that democracy is a grand application of “wisdom of large crowd”. But if that can easily and consistently outperformed then do we have better political system than democracy? What are the consequences of this?

We don't have direct democracy - we're only voting among a small number of propositions, which have already been narrowed down by very select groups.

Of course the plebes get their info through narrow, distorted filters, but I don't think it's the same here.

We don't ask the public to set policy, we ask them to pick a team that will set policy, which is very different.

Re: Knowledge from small number of debates outperforms wisdom of large crowds (2017)

#15
post #5

I would say that this has been known for quite some time in philosophy, but I guess it's good to have some real-life verification for it. This article on Belief Merging and Judgement Aggregation[0] is a good entry point for the field, for anybody that is interested. [0]: https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/belief-merging/

[deleted]

Re: Knowledge from small number of debates outperforms wisdom of large crowds (2017)

#16
post #6

You can make a case that democracy is a grand application of “wisdom of large crowd”. But if that can easily and consistently outperformed then do we have better political system than democracy? What are the consequences of this?

Yes and no. The (new) knock on crowds is they are quickly and easily compromised by debate. That is, have to get everyone's opinion __before__ there's discussion.

I'm sure there are plenty of sources. I read about it in The Influential Mind.

Re: Knowledge from small number of debates outperforms wisdom of large crowds (2017)

#17
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That would be direct democracy . No "democracy" on Earth is actually a direct democracy, but a representative democracy, which seems more in line to what this study proposes, no? A small group of elected officials to "debate" issues.

And then every so often a referendum with only two polar-opposite options is presented to the electorate, reminding us why we have representative democracy instead of direct. I'm looking at you, Brexit... :)

If there were more such votes, especially in the EU with regard to policy - then Brexit would have never happened.

There is quite a fundamental 'scope creep' going on in the EU, combined with unpopular views among the elite, which is causes massive tension that would not be there otherwise.

A properly elected executive, more consensus WRT voters, and possibly more direct participation would be better not worse.

All of the EU's many crises are self-inflicted, it's in permanent 'put out the fire mode' - which is consistent with pre-revolutionary situations.

I'm not sure how well the paper applies to democracy.

Re: Knowledge from small number of debates outperforms wisdom of large crowds (2017)

#18
post #6

You can make a case that democracy is a grand application of “wisdom of large crowd”. But if that can easily and consistently outperformed then do we have better political system than democracy? What are the consequences of this?

Democracy is not a vehicle for correctness or efficiency.

It's entire point is to distribute political power to a wide powerbase with a constant churn.

This is to disable known pathologies of entrenched power bases and to discourage social stratification.

Since modern states don't have an entrenched hereditary aristocracy we don't really have a concept of what democracy shields us from, since we've not had to suffer from it - except when we do, we recognize it and shun it.

The social idea was that aristocracy had to be in power since they were the ones with the education. After public schooling became a things, suddenly just being able to read and write is not a distinguishing feature, and having an explicit hereditary elite became a socially untenable construct.

That's not to say that a human society is a fair playing field - but it's not as unjust as in past centuries.

Similarly to vacciness, when democracy works as intended you see only the "bad parts".

Re: Knowledge from small number of debates outperforms wisdom of large crowds (2017)

#19
post #9
post #6

You can make a case that democracy is a grand application of “wisdom of large crowd”. But if that can easily and consistently outperformed then do we have better political system than democracy? What are the consequences of this?

That would be direct democracy . No "democracy" on Earth is actually a direct democracy, but a representative democracy, which seems more in line to what this study proposes, no? A small group of elected officials to "debate" issues.

Switzerland is close to a direct democracy with a model based on: representative democracy by default but direct as soon and anytime the people feels the subject should be handled so. That system has proven very stable.

Re: Knowledge from small number of debates outperforms wisdom of large crowds (2017)

#20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And then every so often a referendum with only two polar-opposite options is presented to the electorate, reminding us why we have representative democracy instead of direct. I'm looking at you, Brexit... :)

If there were more such votes, especially in the EU with regard to policy - then Brexit would have never happened. There is quite a fundamental 'scope creep' going on in the EU, combined with unpopular views among the elite, which is causes massive tension that would not be there otherwise. A properly elected executive, more consensus WRT voters, and possibly more direct participation would be better not worse. All o…

> If there were more such votes, especially in the EU with regard to policy - then Brexit would have never happened.

Possibly. I think you're assuming people were interested enough in the EU to partake in such referenda, and that big influential campaigns would not have existed, and that had certain treated been voted down that people would still be content with the EU, and so on. And excluding other issues that possibly led to Brexit like nearly a decade of manufactured austerity.

That seems too much of a leap to conclude that Brexit wouldn't have happened.

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