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What Happens When Facebook Goes the Way of Myspace?

nytimes.com

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Re: What Happens When Facebook Goes the Way of Myspace?

#11

Post by pavlov »

maeln wrote: post #10

Facebook as a website can go the way of MySpace. But Facebook as a company will probably not. The subject is touched a bit toward the end of the article but the reality is this: Facebook has reached a critical mass, as a company, that MySpace never did. As such, they can just continue to buy all the other new social network that pop-up and make sure that they have a dominant position in the social network market. Unl…

Facebook today is in the same place as Microsoft in 2003-2007. Bad old API decisions made in pursuit of quick marketshare have come back to haunt. The main product is seen as lackluster and stagnated. Entries into new markets are seen as "me too" and out of sync with the brand image (Portal and Lasso might be Facebook's Zune).

Microsoft survived all that and is now the world's most valuable corporation again. Facebook isn't going to die either because it's effectively the Windows of people's lives.

Re: What Happens When Facebook Goes the Way of Myspace?

#12

Post by lmilcin »

maeln wrote: post #10

Facebook as a website can go the way of MySpace. But Facebook as a company will probably not. The subject is touched a bit toward the end of the article but the reality is this: Facebook has reached a critical mass, as a company, that MySpace never did. As such, they can just continue to buy all the other new social network that pop-up and make sure that they have a dominant position in the social network market. Unl…

You need to finance any buyout. There are three main sources you can use: cash, loan or stake in the company. Stake offers and loans are largely dependant on the image of health of the company. Remember, the calculated market value of company is mostly a promise of future income. If this promise is seen as unrealistic or too risky then the market value will crash and the main sources of its buying power can vanish overnight.

Re: What Happens When Facebook Goes the Way of Myspace?

#13

Post by jasode »

maeln wrote: post #10

Facebook as a website can go the way of MySpace. But Facebook as a company will probably not. The subject is touched a bit toward the end of the article but the reality is this: Facebook has reached a critical mass, as a company, that MySpace never did. As such, they can just continue to buy all the other new social network that pop-up and make sure that they have a dominant position in the social network market. Unl…

>, they can just continue to buy all the other new social network that pop-up

Yes, many people have this fatalistic perspective about FB but they shouldn't because Zuckerberg can't buy all the competition. Buying a company requires a willing seller[0]. Consider that Facebook itself rejected offers from Viacom (~$1.5 billion), Yahoo (~$1 billion), Microsoft ($24 billion), etc.[1][2]

The bigger companies such as Microsoft can't force Zuckerberg to sell if he doesn't want to sell. Likewise, Facebook tried to buy Snapchat for $3 billion but Evan Spiegel said "no". Yes, Snapchat is no longer a threat but that doesn't mean another superior competitor can't rise up as a new threat that MZ can't buy.

[0] my previous comment with other examples: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15733501

[1] https://www.businessinsider.com/all-the-companies-that-ever-...

[2] https://www.cnbc.com/video/2016/10/21/steve-ballmer-microsof...

Re: What Happens When Facebook Goes the Way of Myspace?

#14

Post by mijamo »

golergka wrote: post #6

> in the United States and Canada And that key detail is why this article is wrong. US and Canada are certainly most lukrative markets in terms of profit per single user, but they are far, far from the only markets in the world. Facebook usage in North America may start stagnating in the next few years, but it is still rapidly growing in other areas. And after that, well, you just run out of people in the whole human…

There are plenty of examples of companies facing a saturated market. The logical next step is to grow vertically as you cannot grow horizontally anymore. Some succeed, many fail. In the long run, nearly all companies fail.

Re: What Happens When Facebook Goes the Way of Myspace?

#15

Post by grecy »

mijamo wrote: post #14
golergka wrote: post #6

> in the United States and Canada And that key detail is why this article is wrong. US and Canada are certainly most lukrative markets in terms of profit per single user, but they are far, far from the only markets in the world. Facebook usage in North America may start stagnating in the next few years, but it is still rapidly growing in other areas. And after that, well, you just run out of people in the whole human…

There are plenty of examples of companies facing a saturated market. The logical next step is to grow vertically as you cannot grow horizontally anymore. Some succeed, many fail. In the long run, nearly all companies fail.

> There are plenty of examples of companies facing a saturated market

Globally though? Are there companies that have saturated the entire planet.

Facebook use is BOOMING in the developing world. I've been moving around Africa though 30 countries for 2.5 yeas now - it's rare to meet someone that doesn't have Facebook and whatsapp.

Re: What Happens When Facebook Goes the Way of Myspace?

#17

Post by user5994461 »

jasode wrote: post #13
maeln wrote: post #10

Facebook as a website can go the way of MySpace. But Facebook as a company will probably not. The subject is touched a bit toward the end of the article but the reality is this: Facebook has reached a critical mass, as a company, that MySpace never did. As such, they can just continue to buy all the other new social network that pop-up and make sure that they have a dominant position in the social network market. Unl…

>, they can just continue to buy all the other new social network that pop-up Yes, many people have this fatalistic perspective about FB but they shouldn't because Zuckerberg can't buy all the competition. Buying a company requires a willing seller [0]. Consider that Facebook itself rejected offers from Viacom (~$1.5 billion), Yahoo (~$1 billion), Microsoft ($24 billion), etc.[1][2] The bigger companies such as Micro…

These offers were a joke. Try adding one zero. Pretty sure VC would give a billion with little strings attached to any company that's threatening Facebook.

Every seller has a price. WhatsApp went for $16B.

Re: What Happens When Facebook Goes the Way of Myspace?

#19

Post by AstralStorm »

grecy wrote: post #15
mijamo wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are plenty of examples of companies facing a saturated market. The logical next step is to grow vertically as you cannot grow horizontally anymore. Some succeed, many fail. In the long run, nearly all companies fail.

> There are plenty of examples of companies facing a saturated market Globally though? Are there companies that have saturated the entire planet. Facebook use is BOOMING in the developing world. I've been moving around Africa though 30 countries for 2.5 yeas now - it's rare to meet someone that doesn't have Facebook and whatsapp.

At a certain point, Facebook might face being either broken up or outright nationalized in some places...

Re: What Happens When Facebook Goes the Way of Myspace?

#20

Post by Theodores »

Dowwie wrote: post #18

The New York Times is not what it used to be, either

I wish there was some truth to that.

They have always been the tool of those that rule this world, whether those rulers be in Wall Street or the Pentagon. Their work cheerleading the world to war is a constant. They side with the interests of capital rather than people. Any aberrations to this, e.g. straying from one political party to another, is still representing and furthering time-old vested interests. Online media has yet to usurp the old timers of dead tree media.

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