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Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

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Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#81

Post by belltaco »

ScottAS wrote: post #72
themgt wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because the previous times it wasn't being hyped in mainstream news and culture. The point where the guy on the elevator is taking about [bubble] is the point at which [bubble] is about to burst for real, because you've just about run out of new suckers to fuel it.

Well, the gold bubble has yet to "permanently" pop, and has been through multiple phases of mania - an arbitrary substance worth trillions of dollars which our entire supply of fits in 3 olympic swimming pools. Socially agreed upon value can potentially last for generations without any fundamental sense.

Gold is very different. There's a lot of ornamental uses(some industrial) and also historical and cultural value. Owning and hoarding gold is a status symbol in some cultures(2.5 billion plus with just China+India) way beyond owning the latest and most expensive iPhones.

Throughout most of modern history, you could buy things with gold and that's unlikely to change. Barring alchemy or some extreme globalwide natural disasters, there's a value floor on gold that's missing with bitcoin.

There are no current killer applications for bitcoin beyond some semi-legal trade of illicit drugs and ransomware which doesn't even need or cause the currency price to go up since it's usually converted back and forth to fiat. Perhaps this will change if countries currencies go belly up and die (think Venezuela, Argentina and Zimbabwe).

Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#82

Post by belltaco »

WorldMaker wrote: post #53
reidjs wrote: post #3

Why’s it still so darn expensive then?

By "it" do you mean Bitcoin? Because it is designed to be deflationary? Because its (energy cost) overhead is still sky high and likely to remain reflected in prices? Because it is the "brand name" market with whatever caché remains to that name reflecting in prices? Because sunk costs of existing investors want to keep the price high for as long as possible? Those are just a few of the more obvious reasons. Not that…

>Because its (energy cost) overhead is still sky high and likely to remain reflected in prices?

This is a huge fallacy.

Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#83

Post by wtracy »

Either McAfee was being facetious in that tweet, or he was smoking something good.

It's one thing to believe that Bitcoin is the future, it's another to believe that "Bubbles are mathematically impossible in this new paradigm. So are corrections and all else."

Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#84

Post by tim333 »

berbec wrote: post #77
morgancmartin wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Haha, thanks for the laugh. Considering the downvotes I got, I suppose I was out of line suggesting a wager, but I've yet to see convincing evidence for why blockchain tech can't work. Sure it's overhyped way beyond what it deserves and it hasn't found its "killer app" or niche yet, but that doesn't mean it won't. Nano's my favorite coin. It's fee-less, near-instant, and secure. Its largest flaw (and one all coins sh…

I have no skin in the game either way, so I am curious (asked before): Is crypto: money/currency (spend able exchange of value) a store of value (investment etc) a cool technology with no current useful application or something I don't understand? If crypto is money, can I: Spend it at Amazon? My grocery store? My corner deli? Pay my rent? Pay my employees? If crypto is a store of value can I trust it will have any r…

It works as a spend able exchange of value and as an investment. Just not very well. I've done both of those.

Given the not very well bit, it's main use in reality is doing stuff discouraged by governments such as buying drugs and pushing scammy investments.

Whether it will develop beyond that I'm not sure.

Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#85

Post by [deleted] »

the_gastropod wrote: post #59
ascendantlogic wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How many people got burnt in the dotcom crash? In the financial crisis of 2007-2008? Black Monday of 1987? Did all of those people swear off investing in traditional equity instruments forever?

After the 2007/2008 financial crisis—the worst financial crisis in the history of the US—the S&P500 dropped 54.1% from peak to trough. BTC is currently down over 80% since its peak. Let's also make sure we understand that the S&P500 (or any stock ownership) is owning _business(es)_. Businesses make money, and they return that money to their owners. Bitcoin is purely speculative and depends on someone else buying it f…

[deleted]

Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#86

Post by tim333 »

the_gastropod wrote: post #59
ascendantlogic wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How many people got burnt in the dotcom crash? In the financial crisis of 2007-2008? Black Monday of 1987? Did all of those people swear off investing in traditional equity instruments forever?

After the 2007/2008 financial crisis—the worst financial crisis in the history of the US—the S&P500 dropped 54.1% from peak to trough. BTC is currently down over 80% since its peak. Let's also make sure we understand that the S&P500 (or any stock ownership) is owning _business(es)_. Businesses make money, and they return that money to their owners. Bitcoin is purely speculative and depends on someone else buying it f…

If you look at the history of Bitcoin's price, it has dropped 80+ % about three times before and then bottomed and gone up like 10x over the next three or so years. I find that quite a good argument to put to the next bunch of suckers.

Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#87

Post by tim333 »

tracker1 wrote: post #60
koboll wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How? Which investors are going to believe the next bubble isn't a bubble?

With good timing, you can make money on a Bubble... the key is to get out before it bursts.

An interesting technical point I saw on that is that you may be better getting out a little after the peak. The reason being on the way up there is no way of knowing where the peak is. For example in the recent bitcoin run up you might have bought at 1000 and sold at 2000 missing most of it. If however you waited until it looked like it was on the way back down you likely would have sold at around 16000 - 10000 and so done better.

I think the key is more to buy in early rather than near the top. Indeed if you time that ok you can sell half your stake when it goes 2x and so be kind of risk free for the rest.

If history is a guide bitcoin will go nowhere for 6 months to a year, then up up slowly, then have another silly bubble a few years later. So my infallible guide is buy in a years time, sell half when the price doubles, wait till there is a bubble and when it's super hyped but starts crashing sell out, probably about 1/3 below the next peak.

Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#88

Post by tim333 »

tim333 wrote: post #86
the_gastropod wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

After the 2007/2008 financial crisis—the worst financial crisis in the history of the US—the S&P500 dropped 54.1% from peak to trough. BTC is currently down over 80% since its peak. Let's also make sure we understand that the S&P500 (or any stock ownership) is owning _business(es)_. Businesses make money, and they return that money to their owners. Bitcoin is purely speculative and depends on someone else buying it f…

If you look at the history of Bitcoin's price, it has dropped 80+ % about three times before and then bottomed and gone up like 10x over the next three or so years. I find that quite a good argument to put to the next bunch of suckers.

as in https://twitter.com/PhillipNunnUK/status/1073977573145788416

Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#89

Post by dagw »

morgancmartin wrote: post #21
themgt wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because the previous times it wasn't being hyped in mainstream news and culture. The point where the guy on the elevator is taking about [bubble] is the point at which [bubble] is about to burst for real, because you've just about run out of new suckers to fuel it.

Would you be willing to make a friendly wager on whether it returns bigger than ever? My ten dollars says it will within, say, two years. What do you say?

I say you buy $10 worth of bitcoin and promise not to sell for 2 years. I'll stick $10 extra in an index fund and not sell that for 2 years. There, now we've made an implicit wager with each other and this way we won't have to reconnect in 2 years to work out exactly who won how much.

Re: Bitcoin Was a Bubble and It Popped

#90

Post by jki275 »

berbec wrote: post #77
morgancmartin wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Haha, thanks for the laugh. Considering the downvotes I got, I suppose I was out of line suggesting a wager, but I've yet to see convincing evidence for why blockchain tech can't work. Sure it's overhyped way beyond what it deserves and it hasn't found its "killer app" or niche yet, but that doesn't mean it won't. Nano's my favorite coin. It's fee-less, near-instant, and secure. Its largest flaw (and one all coins sh…

I have no skin in the game either way, so I am curious (asked before): Is crypto: money/currency (spend able exchange of value) a store of value (investment etc) a cool technology with no current useful application or something I don't understand? If crypto is money, can I: Spend it at Amazon? My grocery store? My corner deli? Pay my rent? Pay my employees? If crypto is a store of value can I trust it will have any r…

It's kind of all of the above.

As to your questions, you can spend it some places. I think newegg takes it, Valve used to take it with Steam, etc. There are corner delis who take it, I'm not sure about yours. Your employees may be ok with you paying them in it, but that's an agreement you have to have with them.

To your last question -- no, I wouldn't think so at least for now.

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