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China’s Economy Slows Sharply

nytimes.com

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Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#221

Post by irq11 »

yostrovs wrote: post #212
gregw2 wrote: post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump has complained about it publicly and is working to withdraw us while the Democrats spin it as Trump trying to withdraw from a 200-year old treaty - we should fix it instead (but we also tried that once and failed in 2016). I haven't followed it closely but it is a political issue, albeit a minor one that neither side for whatever reason wants to escalate into a major talking point. (Not a Trump supporter but ma…

It's amuzing how people feel forced to add the "I didn't vote for Trump" when defending his actions that they like. Lest someone think they're monsters. The reality is that business-wise he's actually working hard for America's economy, addressing structural nonsense like the mail post treaty. Why can't that be simply something you support, regardless of who you voted for. Why is it implied that the other party decid…

“Business-wise”, he’s taking a series of random, poorly reasoned actions, some of which happen to be good. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

The parent is saying that Trump is bad on most things, but good on one particular thing. You’re trying to claim that he’s good on most things in a category.

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#222

Post by withhighprod »

pram wrote: post #187
smnrchrds wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> or slavery 300 years ago I am no apologist for any country, but wouldn't a better point be the very real, widespread, and constitutionally-protected prisoner slavery, which is happening in America today not just 300 years ago?

China literally has forced labor camps.

“forced” in what way? You don’t have to work and you’ll starve. In China if you quit the “camp” thousands are lined up outside to replace you.

Actually I don’t think any existing political system can do a much better job in this case.

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#223

Post by kristofferR »

wu-ikkyu wrote: post #219
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Americans and westerners who live or have lived in China are typically more critical about china than those that haven’t. We are the ones who notice the empty buildings and districts, and that mall in Beijing that is never going to attract any stores, or why the apartment buildings we live in is half empty but has a thriving ant tribe in the basement. If anything, reporting on China by western sources doesn’t get any…

>the empty buildings and districts, and that mall in Beijing that is never going to attract any stores, or why the apartment buildings we live in is half empty but has a thriving ant tribe in the basement. >would never believe it was that crazy. That doesn't sound crazy at all, as I've seen plenty of all that in the US...

China builds useless buildings/cities because it raises the GDP and because it's often the only viable way to raise funds for local governments. The Chinese people invest in useless buildings because it is often the only viable way to invest your savings.

Some of the useless buildings built for buildings sake will potentially be filled as people move from rural areas, but a lot won't.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5SE47Xjx2Q

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#224

Post by zaroth »

thomasz wrote: post #188
1996 wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Being able to manage what seems to be multiple "conflicting" ideas at once and without stress should be prized in every culture. The world is not black or white. Enlarging your perspectives always help.

Conflicting ideas means believing that princess Diana was murdered by MI6 and that she was kidnapped by another shadowy party. Or that migrants will simultaneously take all the jobs and that they all just come to leech our welfare system dry.

On a macro level it is absolutely possible for immigration to both depress wages and overburden the welfare system.

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#225

Post by HillaryBriss »

chillacy wrote: post #196
HillaryBriss wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> our disgust with the policy a prediction: the next US president (almost certainly a Democrat) will continue these policies or other very similar policies. the next president will not suddenly "lighten up" on China.

I wonder if TPP would have fared better than tariff threats. That seemed to be the way Democrats we’re going to contain China, by forging trade alliances with SEA and chinas neighbors.

i don't know how big its effects would have been for the US economy.

it seemed like there were pro/con TPP factions in the Democratic voter base. i recall Sanders being against TPP because he thought it was too favorable to certain US companies (e.g. pharma, entertainment) and their shareholders without doing much for workers or for other US industries.

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#226

Post by gigatexal »

They should sell more knockoffs of popular products ;)

Has there been any research into the truthfulness of the Chinese released growth numbers in the past? What’s to prevent them from inflating or artificially deflating them to serve some other purpose?

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#227

Post by api »

kristofferR wrote: post #223
wu-ikkyu wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>the empty buildings and districts, and that mall in Beijing that is never going to attract any stores, or why the apartment buildings we live in is half empty but has a thriving ant tribe in the basement. >would never believe it was that crazy. That doesn't sound crazy at all, as I've seen plenty of all that in the US...

China builds useless buildings/cities because it raises the GDP and because it's often the only viable way to raise funds for local governments. The Chinese people invest in useless buildings because it is often the only viable way to invest your savings. Some of the useless buildings built for buildings sake will potentially be filled as people move from rural areas, but a lot won't. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=…

The American equivalent is useless military hardware, including sometimes hardware the Pentagon says it doesn't even need.

Both approaches are wasteful but which is more so is debatable. Our military Keynesianism throws off R&D dividends that apply to civilian use cases, but people could live in those cities.

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#228

Post by kristofferR »

api wrote: post #227
kristofferR wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China builds useless buildings/cities because it raises the GDP and because it's often the only viable way to raise funds for local governments. The Chinese people invest in useless buildings because it is often the only viable way to invest your savings. Some of the useless buildings built for buildings sake will potentially be filled as people move from rural areas, but a lot won't. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=…

The American equivalent is useless military hardware, including sometimes hardware the Pentagon says it doesn't even need. Both approaches are wasteful but which is more so is debatable. Our military Keynesianism throws off R&D dividends that apply to civilian use cases, but people could live in those cities.

A lot of the empty cities/buildings/apartments are way overpriced due to speculation, so the people who want to live in them can't because they're way too expensive and the people who afford to live in them don't want to. That won't change unless housing prices crash, which would be devastating to a lot of ordinary Chinese who have their savings invested in the housing market.

More people are buying their second and third home than are buying their first.

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#229

Post by api »

kristofferR wrote: post #228
api wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The American equivalent is useless military hardware, including sometimes hardware the Pentagon says it doesn't even need. Both approaches are wasteful but which is more so is debatable. Our military Keynesianism throws off R&D dividends that apply to civilian use cases, but people could live in those cities.

A lot of the empty cities/buildings/apartments are way overpriced due to speculation, so the people who want to live in them can't because they're way too expensive and the people who afford to live in them don't want to. That won't change unless housing prices crash, which would be devastating to a lot of ordinary Chinese who have their savings invested in the housing market. More people are buying their second and…

We have some of that problem too. The use of housing as a financial instrument is a plague from the pit of hell.

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#230

Post by jhanschoo »

sho wrote: post #181
malloryerik wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rebalancing the domestic economy toward greater household income is necessary to provide sustained growth in China, and that's what Michael Pettis argues in your link to his blog. Make no mistake though, the national and Party leadership is deathly afraid of low growth and it is exactly what they seek to avoid. The leadership knows they must create domestic consumer demand and that this must happen through an increas…

> China has a long history of civil unrest > The return to authoritarianism can be seen as battening down the hatches Obligatory not a "China expert" but I think you're very much correct. A lot of people don't seem to understand how different, and explosive, the political situation is in China. There is very little social trust, certainly little trust in government, and things could fly apart quickly and violently. T…

Regarding Xi's motivations with respect to his "strongman" actions, this document about Xi before he became the Gen Sec might shed some light:

https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/09BEIJING3128_a.html

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