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Debt Worldwide Hits Record $86k per Person

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Re: Debt Worldwide Hits Record $86k per Person

#111

Post by btilly »

coldtea wrote: post #60
btilly wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is a nice theory, but there is a problem. The problem is that in the event of collapse, only SOME can reasonably be supported this way. And how to keep the unlucky masses from tearing down the means of survival for the lucky few? The most effective answer is distance. While unlucky mobs can walk to your solar panels in the desert after civilization breaks down, how are they going to get to Mars? Get a good trampol…

> The most effective answer is distance. While unlucky mobs can walk to your solar panels in the desert after civilization breaks down, how are they going to get to Mars? Get a good trampoline to jump on? On some Mars colony with the foreseeable level of technology for the next 100-200 years you're even more prone to death and to worse climate than whatever might happen here on earth. Beyond 200 years, Elon Musk coul…

On what evidence do you think that Elon Musk doesn't care about the future beyond 200 years?

I believe that he wants to go down in history. And he wants there to be a history for him to go down in. True, he won't be there for that. But the thought of what it might be is a positive motivation for him.

Re: Debt Worldwide Hits Record $86k per Person

#112

Post by malmsteen »

jdoliner wrote: post #2

Does anyone actually still believe that these debts will all someday be repayed? Does anyone even believe that the amount of debt will go down, rather than up, over the course of any length of time? Even a day? I don't, which raises the question: how does a world where debt monotonically increases indefinitely work? Can that happen forever, in which case debt has just become a standin for currency (that allows people…

It just means "you need to work" to many people.at the end of the day ?

At least thats how I see debt...

Re: Debt Worldwide Hits Record $86k per Person

#113

Post by AnimalMuppet »

dragonwriter wrote: post #81
AnimalMuppet wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That might be nice, but... how, exactly? By writing off the debts? That's not so nice for those who are owed. A bunch of those are pension funds, for example. If peoples' pensions get wiped out by by all debts being forgiven, they won't be so happy. By the government giving money to people? But where does the government get the money? By taking on debt? Then the government's even more deeply in debt, which means that…

> By the government giving money to people? But where does the government get the money? By taking on debt? Then the government's even more deeply in debt, which means that we the people still are in debt, too. But it's a lot easier to pay off, especially if you prioritize high risk debt to nationalize, so the government has a lower cost of borrowing (especially if the government, instead of paying off distressed deb…

That actually makes sense economically. Politically, though, what's going to happen is that people aren't going to want to pay taxes to service the government's debt (even if in advance they said they would). The consequences of the much-larger government debt without increased taxes could be anywhere from "somewhat negative" to "catastrophic".

Re: Debt Worldwide Hits Record $86k per Person

#114

Post by politician »

btilly wrote: post #49
politician wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I secretly believe that for all of the bluster about Mars, Elon's real goal is to produce the technology base necessary for humans to live here on Earth following the collapse of the biosphere. Why go to Mars to encounter an atmosphere hostile to life when we can all collectively experience right here at home? Storms washed out your fiber optic cables? Starlink. No place to hide from the hostile surface? Boring Co. N…

It is a nice theory, but there is a problem. The problem is that in the event of collapse, only SOME can reasonably be supported this way. And how to keep the unlucky masses from tearing down the means of survival for the lucky few? The most effective answer is distance. While unlucky mobs can walk to your solar panels in the desert after civilization breaks down, how are they going to get to Mars? Get a good trampol…

First of all, the government won't go down without a fight. Those teaming mobs won't be squaring of with Elon's plucky group of scientists, but with a military tasked with defending them and motivated by a promise of survival for themselves and their families.

Second, we don't have to worry about protecting acres of land-based solar panels from damage if we're beaming microwaves from orbit. The receiving arrays would be smaller, more defensible, and cheaper to maintain. The powersat could be weaponized to defend its own receiving array.

Third, regarding distance, it's really hard to dig more than a few meters underground without heavy equipment.

Fourth, in a total collapse scenario -- no food, air becomes unbreathable due to methane pollution from melting permafrost --, the people remaining on the surface will die off rapidly. The death squads may last longer, but aren't going to be able to present a significant risk to a deep underground military base protected by the members of the former government with a powersat on overwatch.

After the chaos of the collapse, these locations could quickly begin the effort to repair the atmosphere using all of those terraforming approaches that we would not tolerate being deploying today: ocean iron seeding, orbital shades, bioengineering.

Then the hardened survivors could return to a generally functioning planet, and then maybe go to Mars with their newfound skills.

EDIT: This might seem preposterous, but it's far more viable than shipping one million people to Mars and building up a manufacturing base under time pressure capable of keeping everyone alive and fed while also reproducing a supply chain capable of developing integrated circuits on a world with a different gravitational constant.

Re: Debt Worldwide Hits Record $86k per Person

#115

Post by AnimalMuppet »

intralizee wrote: post #108
EpicEng wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's "hyper" because it's "big and fast". Do you honestly believe that printing money to pay of all private citizen debt is a solution to anything?

I think it’s better than continuing to exploit the underprivileged. The persons who were either in one of the categories: uneducated, unfortunate, desperate, deluded/ill, or whatever it may be to how they didn’t have the variables & events needed to succeed compared to the ones that did. Add a forgiveness plan with some financial health classes and the community health will improve or the system is inherently sociall…

Good intentions don't save bad policy from causing really bad effects. Venezuela was going to help the poor. Really, that was the intent. They wound up with the poor losing 15 pounds each because they can't get enough food. How did they get there? Well, there wasn't enough money to pay for all the things that the government wanted to do for the poor, so they printed more money. Then the next year, there still wasn't enough money, and prices had gone up, so they printed more money. And they wound up at runaway inflation. It's a real danger, to be taken seriously. Merely saying "it's better than the alternative" does not in fact make it better than the status quo, even for the underprivileged.

But there are two things that might prevent this idea from winding up at hyperinflation. First, it is a one-off. The government prints money to pay off everyone's debt. Now nobody has debt, so the government doesn't need to do it again. Except that having no debt didn't give me enough money to buy a house, so I still have to take out a mortgage, and behold, I'm in debt again. And it didn't give my kid enough money to pay for college, so she's in debt again. And now there's cries for the government to do it again. And if they keep doing it, then we're probably going to wind up in hyperinflation. (Especially because of incentives. If the government paid off all debts, and I think they're going to do it again, my incentive is to borrow as much as I can to buy anything I think I want, because to me, it will be free.)

The second way this might not wind up in hyperinflation is because of deleveraging. A bank has $100 on deposit. They lend out $90 (fractional reserve banking), and now $190 exists, but someone owes $90, so the net is still $100. Now the government prints $90 and pays off the bank. Now $190 exists, which is no change, but the net is now $190 instead of $100, which is a change. Is that inflationary or not? I don't know.

Re: Debt Worldwide Hits Record $86k per Person

#116

Post by btilly »

politician wrote: post #114
btilly wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is a nice theory, but there is a problem. The problem is that in the event of collapse, only SOME can reasonably be supported this way. And how to keep the unlucky masses from tearing down the means of survival for the lucky few? The most effective answer is distance. While unlucky mobs can walk to your solar panels in the desert after civilization breaks down, how are they going to get to Mars? Get a good trampol…

First of all, the government won't go down without a fight. Those teaming mobs won't be squaring of with Elon's plucky group of scientists, but with a military tasked with defending them and motivated by a promise of survival for themselves and their families. Second, we don't have to worry about protecting acres of land-based solar panels from damage if we're beaming microwaves from orbit. The receiving arrays would…

This would make sense if Elon's goal was to keep the government alive. It doesn't if his goal is to keep himself and those he cares about alive.

Also most collapses to worry about are not "the Earth just became immediately uninhabitable" but instead "there is a complete collapse in civil order". Think the power grid goes down like it did in 2003, but on a wider scale and doesn't come back up. As we go from inconvenience to mass starvation, what happens?

If you hide away, the survivors aren't just going to conveniently die off. They are going to remain, and WILL have a grudge.

Re: Debt Worldwide Hits Record $86k per Person

#117

Post by politician »

btilly wrote: post #116
politician wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First of all, the government won't go down without a fight. Those teaming mobs won't be squaring of with Elon's plucky group of scientists, but with a military tasked with defending them and motivated by a promise of survival for themselves and their families. Second, we don't have to worry about protecting acres of land-based solar panels from damage if we're beaming microwaves from orbit. The receiving arrays would…

This would make sense if Elon's goal was to keep the government alive. It doesn't if his goal is to keep himself and those he cares about alive. Also most collapses to worry about are not "the Earth just became immediately uninhabitable" but instead "there is a complete collapse in civil order". Think the power grid goes down like it did in 2003, but on a wider scale and doesn't come back up. As we go from inconvenie…

Sure, I would agree if we weren't facing the threat of multiple degrees of warming causing climate changes that will threaten to upend the social order and melt the permafrost within our lifetimes.

If we had room to speculate on the wide variety of disasters that may befall the Earth within the next, say, 200 years, then perhaps hiding underground isn't the optimal best solution.

Aside: I'm sure you'll agree that it'll be easier for Elon to keep his family alive if he's adequately defended. Regardless, he might not have a choice. The third amendment was not always a thing.

Re: Debt Worldwide Hits Record $86k per Person

#119

Post by btilly »

politician wrote: post #117
btilly wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This would make sense if Elon's goal was to keep the government alive. It doesn't if his goal is to keep himself and those he cares about alive. Also most collapses to worry about are not "the Earth just became immediately uninhabitable" but instead "there is a complete collapse in civil order". Think the power grid goes down like it did in 2003, but on a wider scale and doesn't come back up. As we go from inconvenie…

Sure, I would agree if we weren't facing the threat of multiple degrees of warming causing climate changes that will threaten to upend the social order and melt the permafrost within our lifetimes. If we had room to speculate on the wide variety of disasters that may befall the Earth within the next, say, 200 years, then perhaps hiding underground isn't the optimal best solution. Aside: I'm sure you'll agree that it'…

My point remains. Disrupted enough to cause the social order to collapse is a lot less disrupted than disrupted enough to cause the environment to be lethal to be in.

As an example of the difference, consider "widespread crop failures followed by food riots causing a general breakdown of transportation networks". The social order is destroyed. But the air is still breathable. And where you live the local crops might even have been fine until pillaged by hungry people.

On a side note, the 3rd amendment has only come up in one legal case, and it was decided in that one that the violation of the 3rd amendment happened, but the government had a qualified immunity because a reasonable person would not have known of the rule. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Engblom_v._Carey for the bizarre case.

Re: Debt Worldwide Hits Record $86k per Person

#120

Post by moltar »

babypuncher wrote: post #84
coldtea wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Debt allows people to own homes and cars and pay for education and invest in business. Debt means you are optimistic about the future. How about having homes and cars and education without debt? It's not like you need to be in debt to another and to steal from your feature to have nice things...

You are basically arguing that most people should never be able to own real estate, doomed to live as perpetual tenants. Over the course of a lifetime, that is actually more expensive than a 30 year mortgage.

Actually many countries around the world don’t have a healthy borrowing market and they do fine with real estate.

Some people have to live with family for a while or build in stages. It’s a challenge, but it’s doable.

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