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China’s Economy Slows Sharply

nytimes.com

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Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#11

Post by onlyrealcuzzo »

volkl48 wrote: post #6
barrow-rider wrote: post #3

Has it really slowed, or just been putting out shady statistics for a while that show growth that isn't there?

The article points to less easily faked data to indicate the slowdown, not the official statistics that are widely known to have a tenuous relationship with reality.

Look -- I'm as skeptical of the Chinese miracle as anyone.

But serious question: if the data was really as fake as everyone says, wouldn't the official and unofficial exchange rate of the Yuan be a lot larger?

If the Chinese are basically pretending the economy has grown 500% and it's only grown 100%, wouldn't the value of the Yuan prove it?

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#12

Post by babygoat »

coldtea wrote: post #8
volkl48 wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article points to less easily faked data to indicate the slowdown, not the official statistics that are widely known to have a tenuous relationship with reality.

> are widely known to have a tenuous relationship with reality So, like the New York Times?

citation needed

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#14

Post by friedman23 »

rrggrr wrote: post #5

I continue to believe - as I've said in prior HN comments - that the Chinese leadership welcomes this slowdown and the related trade dispute as a means to rebalance the domestic economy, while placing the blame for the rebalancing on the United States. I note that at least one distinguished China watcher agrees: https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/07/27/china-s-best-option...

Absolutely no leader welcomes an economic slowdown. Especially not the leader of an authoritarian government.

Your hypothesis does not explain why the Chinese government is acquiescing to American trade demands. If they welcomed this economic slowdown they would be holding firm in trade negotiations.

What we are actually seeing happen is a rebalancing of foreign investment. American businesses have purchased stock in excess in the previous quarters using existing supply chains and are now moving supply chains out of China. Money that used to flow into China is now flowing into neighboring countries such as Vietnam. Mark my words, if the Chinese government allows this transfer to complete it will never come back to China and China's middle and lower class will be gutted.

Imagine if America's manufacturing economy was outsourced to China in the 60s rather than in the 90s when it already had a thriving service economy. That is what is happening in China.

Many people believe that authoritarian leaders are less beholden to their people than democratic leaders and because of this are able to withstand economic disasters easier. What they fail to realize is that when an authoritarian country fails economically there is only one group of people to blame and when judgement occurs it's not through polls but through violence.

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#15

Post by porpoisely »

I'm sure I've read this same story for the past 5 or even 10 years.

I am certain that the chinese economy will face a recession one day and I am sure nobody in the media will know why or how. Maybe I'm alone in thinking these articles are such a waste of time. It tells us nothing.

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#16

Post by sonnyblarney »

porpoisely wrote: post #15

I'm sure I've read this same story for the past 5 or even 10 years. I am certain that the chinese economy will face a recession one day and I am sure nobody in the media will know why or how. Maybe I'm alone in thinking these articles are such a waste of time. It tells us nothing.

No, it tells us that the Chinese economy is slowing, and by all measures it has been over the last 10 years.

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#18

Post by echevil »

NicoJuicy wrote: post #9
rrggrr wrote: post #5

I continue to believe - as I've said in prior HN comments - that the Chinese leadership welcomes this slowdown and the related trade dispute as a means to rebalance the domestic economy, while placing the blame for the rebalancing on the United States. I note that at least one distinguished China watcher agrees: https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/07/27/china-s-best-option...

I have my sincere doubts about this. China always had a requirement to grow 6% for every city. So I believe some numbers are inflated ( mostly about real estate eg. Ghost cities, ..). This doesn't give many issues, because there is actual growth. The reasoning goes that when the growth slows, the entire pyramid goes crumbling down ( debts). As weird as it is, I think it's an objective overview of everything China rel…

I think Chinese government has to welcome slowing down because it's just impossible to maintain a growth rate like that indefinitely. The GPD of China already come close to that of US. At this scale, the same growth rate is naturally becoming harder and harder to achieve and simply pursuing that number might lead to catastrophic outcome. A slow down in economy growth gives China more time to fix the structural problems caused by rapid growth, and reduces the chances of a sudden crush. Overall I'd say it leads to a much more healthier economy.

It has side effects of course, but Chinese government have much better control of the macro-economy compared to free markets in most other countries, and that would help a lot in avoiding economical crisis. The debt issue is concerning, but I think Chinese government is much faster in acting on and fixing problems.

Some of the slow down mentioned in the article, such as the fall in housing market, seems to be exactly what the government want, as they've tighten the rules for real estate by a lot earlier this year. There're strict criteria people have to meet to be eligible for purchasing a house. This is a good thing because the current real estate market in China is almost insane.

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#19

Post by ganzuul »

NicoJuicy wrote: post #9
rrggrr wrote: post #5

I continue to believe - as I've said in prior HN comments - that the Chinese leadership welcomes this slowdown and the related trade dispute as a means to rebalance the domestic economy, while placing the blame for the rebalancing on the United States. I note that at least one distinguished China watcher agrees: https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/07/27/china-s-best-option...

I have my sincere doubts about this. China always had a requirement to grow 6% for every city. So I believe some numbers are inflated ( mostly about real estate eg. Ghost cities, ..). This doesn't give many issues, because there is actual growth. The reasoning goes that when the growth slows, the entire pyramid goes crumbling down ( debts). As weird as it is, I think it's an objective overview of everything China rel…

They have in practice been exporting huge sums of money overseas by buying companies all over the world.

Re: China’s Economy Slows Sharply

#20

Post by tanilama »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #11
volkl48 wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article points to less easily faked data to indicate the slowdown, not the official statistics that are widely known to have a tenuous relationship with reality.

Look -- I'm as skeptical of the Chinese miracle as anyone. But serious question: if the data was really as fake as everyone says, wouldn't the official and unofficial exchange rate of the Yuan be a lot larger? If the Chinese are basically pretending the economy has grown 500% and it's only grown 100%, wouldn't the value of the Yuan prove it?

Yuan is a controlled currency
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