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Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

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Re: Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

#171
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the U.S. has become incapable of building large projects in a reasonable amount of time and budget? Private projects come in on time and on budget, or nearly so, all the time. It's the public sector projects that are layered in graft. The last major public project that came in near the original budget that I can recall is the San Jose Area (now SAP).

Which private enterprise has the power to run a hundred billion project that isn’t funded by the government. Not one.

Think of all the high-rise apartments (which so many on HN claim to want) and large commercial complexes that are constructed purely by private enterprise.

AT&T Park, Levi's Stadium (over $1 billion), and the new Warriors arena (over $1 billion) were privately funded.

Re: Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

#172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uber, Google Search Engine, Facebook, etc.

None of them have done anything on this scale, have they? They’re valuable because they don’t make investments like this. Their work is on a long lever so they have great margins over massive volume.

Google has spent over $200 million on land alone... in the valley alone... just in the past month.

I heard that it seriously depleted HQ's petty cash fund. (But seriously, these were, in fact, all-cash deals.)

Re: Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

#173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How valuable? $50 billion is enough to create a fund that pays out $2 billion annually in perpetuity, or about $15 for every BART ride. That’s not counting ongoing operations and maintenance. Does BART generate $15 in positive value per ride above and beyond ticket cost, relative to driving? I’m skeptical. $3 I’ll believe. Which is why the constant factors kill us relative to Europe. It costs us 3-7x to build the sam…

Let's take your own reasoning and let's apply it and see where the numbers fall. The Bart cost was $1.586 billion (according to Wikipedia) or around ~$10 billion of today's dollars. Let say that back then we had put that money ($1.586 billion) into an annuity in perpetuity and given the money each years to the riders so they will find alternative means of transport. So if instead of building bart back in the 70's we…

For things like endowments, the general assumption is that you can get a 4% yield that keeps pace with inflation, without touching principal. So you'd be up to $300 million per year today. That's about $2.50 per BART ride of $750 per year per BART rider, which is a believable number.

The problem that you're ignoring, however, is that the relative cost of building infrastructure today is far higher than it was in the 1970s. If you built BART today, it wouldn't cost $10 billion in today's dollars. NYC's recent projects are running $1.5-3.5 billion per mile of subway track. BART has 28 such miles. That's $42-100 billion, not including the other 70 miles in the system.

So what if BART had cost $8 billion ($50 billion in today's dollars) instead of $1.586 ($10 billion)? Instead of having to great $2.50 of value per ride to justify the investment, you're up to at least $12.50. Or $3,750 per daily BART rider. Is each BART trip generating that much value compared to doing the same trip in a car?

Re: Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

#174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How valuable? $50 billion is enough to create a fund that pays out $2 billion annually in perpetuity, or about $15 for every BART ride. That’s not counting ongoing operations and maintenance. Does BART generate $15 in positive value per ride above and beyond ticket cost, relative to driving? I’m skeptical. $3 I’ll believe. Which is why the constant factors kill us relative to Europe. It costs us 3-7x to build the sam…

You haven't taken into account how much the bay area would have needed to spend on bridges and freeways if BART hadn't been built. https://www.bart.gov/sites/default/files/docs/BARTfactsheet_... says (as of 2017) 70k people go through the transbay tube in each direction during peak commute hours. http://www.dot.ca.gov/hq/esc/tollbridge/SFOBB/Sfobbfacts.htm... isn't dated but says that 270k vehicles cross the Bay Brid…

I'm not ignoring it. I'm computing the per-trip capital cost for BART assuming today's inflated construction costs, and asking if the reduced congestion/need for road infrastructure would still justify that investment given today's costs.

I don't think you realize how completely bonkers the cost of mass-transit development has gotten. New York is up to $1.5-3.5 billion per mile of subway. The new Bay Bridge, massively over-budget at $6.4 billion, represents just a few miles of subway (BART has almost 30 miles).

Re: Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

#175
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What the heck is the train line doing near Fresno? Why is it not following I-5 and making zero stops in between the South Bay and LA?

Fresno is the third largest city in the state and the agricultural capital of the state. Going through Fresno will link the three largest industries: technology, entertainment, and agriculture.

I know Fresno is relatively large but the entire purpose of this route was/is/I guess isn't to get people from SF to LA as a rival to air travel.

Re: Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

#176
post #17

While this article finds an issue with the way the Tejon Pass route was eliminated in favor of the Tehachapi Pass route, Tejon Pass route would skip a station in Lancaster/Palmdale, which would be a mistake. As the article acknowledges, these are rapidly growing exurbs that are refuge from the exorbitant land prices in the LA Basin. There is existing commuter rail service between there and Downtown LA, but a HSR is a…

You nailed it. If the HSR was viewed as a SF and LA to Central Valley connection, it would have been much easier to implement. Also, they could have taken a typical MVP style product launch and only completed a small section such as between Gilroy and SF to have a proof of concept. There is a good product lession here of taking on too much scope and then dealing with inevitable scope creep

Re: Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

#177
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Over 100 workers died building it.

China built 17,000 miles of high-speed rail in 15 years. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-speed_rail_in_China There’s another 8000 on the way by 2025.

China also federally funds them. But God forbid if the US Federal govt spends some infrastructure money on the coastal elites. That will be blasphemy

Re: Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

#178
post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"it has some benefit, in the sense that it grows the economy which pays the taxes which funds things like dams and bridges and fire departments" The inland cities won't get to see that benefit, since the train that's supposed to be providing that economic growth would only be doing so for two coastal areas. Unless you're claiming here that the prosperity of San Francisco and Los Angeles means that Fresno and Bakersfi…

"The subsidy arrow in America points solidly toward the middle because that's where it's needed most right now." No, that's revisionism. We've been fire-hosing money at rural areas for decades , if not longer. This isn't a recent thing, and it's mostly because our system of government has one branch that over-represents the voices of rural citizens. "San Francisco and Los Angeles want to build a train that only conne…

This got a little ranty, so tl;dr: if you want the rural areas to carry their own weight instead of being dependent on subsidies from urban areas, the best way of going about that is to invest in their infrastructure now so that they have the means to grow and prosper and contribute more to state tax revenues. In this case, the HSR wouldn't have been worthwhile to pursue if it didn't connect the Central Valley; it would have been a whole lot of spending for very little long-term economic gain in the short term (and outright economic loss in the long-term), as explained further below.

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"We've been fire-hosing money at rural areas for decades, if not longer."

Yes, because for decades - if not longer - they haven't had the tax base to support large infrastructure projects, by the very definition of them being rural areas.

"our system of government has one branch that over-represents the voices of rural citizens"

Clarification: it balances them against the overwhelmingly loud collective voice of urban citizens to protect against there being a tyranny of the majority. By enforcing strictly proportional representation, the rural citizens will get steamrolled time and time again. The United States went with a bicameral legislature - and the states followed with their own bicameral legislatures - because its founders recognized that giving minority voices sufficient representation to adequately defend themselves against majority interests is the key to long-term prosperity.

"If you expect people to pave roads and provide drinking water and put out forest fires out in Bakersfield, maybe you can spend your own money on it."

They do pay for those things through taxes. They can't pay as much as giant metropolitan areas, and thus do need financial assistance from said giant metropolitan areas, but it ain't like their residents are magically exempt from state income/property/sales/gas/alcohol/tobacco/etc. taxes, or state DMV fees, or the wide variety of other means by which the State of California collects its revenue.

"Keep up with this absolutist, ultimatum line of thinking, and you're going to lose."

Right back at you: keep up with this absolutist "you dirty farmers don't deserve to ride our fancy new train because we're richer than you" mentality, and you're going to lose. Your position is really the most selfish one possible: burn billions upon billions of dollars on a project that only benefits two already-overwhelmingly-prosperous metropolitan areas in the short term, thus doing nothing to account for the long-term growth of those two areas and their resulting need for their workforce to live further and further away from the city center to be able to afford rent.

Because really, in the long term, connecting SF and LA and Fresno and Bakersfield and (eventually) Sacramento and Stockton and Modesto and San Diego is a surefire recipe for eventual statewide prosperity. San Francisco in particular will have a lot of trouble continuing to grow economically (what with its rising housing costs pushing workers further and further away from the city center) unless there's a fast connection to cheaper places to live; with a high-speed connection to the Central Valley, you now have a more affordable home for a constantly-growing workforce. I'm less familiar with Los Angeles' dynamics in this regard, but I wouldn't be surprised if they saw similar gains. Meanwhile, those rural areas grow and mature and become less reliant on subsidies to operate. Win-win for everyone.

Sure, maybe that costs more upfront, and maybe it'll take a whole 3 hours to get from SF to LA instead of 2.5 (or whatever the actual numbers are, but IIRC even with the stops it's still less than 3 hours between SF and LA), but any sane and rational person would see that those costs are worth it if it means paving the way for California as a whole to continue to grow for another century the same way it has for a century already. Opposing the idea of the Central Valley actually having stops on the CHSR is the definition of irrationality: it'd still cost billions upon billions of dollars, and it ain't like a whole lot of people are clamoring to commute between SF and LA every day (both have thriving economies, and both have high costs of living, so there's no SF/Sac dynamic where people are willing to commute for 2+ hours if it means cheaper rent), so... what would be the point?

The only thing you'd accomplish by making the HSR SF/LA-only would be to extend a nice big metaphorical middle finger toward the Central Valley. If that's your goal, then you do you, but don't be surprised when the Central Valley votes against you while extending it's own middle finger in return.

Re: Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

#179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're all spread out really really far compared to the rest of the world.

This is one rail line that would connect San Francisco and Los Angeles, the two most populous regions in the most populous state in the US. The fact that the entire country is sparsely populated does not affect the feasibility or utility of this project in particular.

  the two most populous regions
Silicon Valley (even San Jose proper) is more populous than SF.

And San Diego is more populous than either.

Re: Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

#180

As someone who voted for this project, I'm really bummed with how it's actually turning out. The actual costs are so much more than what people voted for, yet no one's being held responsible. At the same time, I don't really have a solution to this problem. We need to invest in large scale transportation initiatives for the future — projects just as forward-looking as BART once was. Yet not even NYC can pull it toget…

The 1976 BART cost $10B in today's dollars to construct. If you were alive in 1976 would you have said it was a boondoggle and the project should have been killed? IMO people consistently underestimate how much public infrastructure is worth. The US highway system was sold at a cost of $27B [1] but cost over $100B and has cost nearly $500B today [2]. Does that mean the US Highway system wasn't worth it? Of course it…

  The US highway system was sold at a cost of $27B [1] but cost over $100B and has cost nearly $500B today [2]
This is disingenuous.

First of all, the original bill estimate was just for the first 41,000 miles.

Secondly, the $27B is in 1956 dollars, while the "$500B" is in 2006 dollars. BIG difference. $27B in 1956 dollars is roughly $248 billion now, and, again, the scope of the interstate system expanded broadly.

(I'd bet that the modern figure includes both the Interstate system and the U.S. highway system, which lacks meaningful usage distinction now from the designated "Interstate" routes.)

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