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Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

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Re: Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

#91

Post by greenburger »

rukittenme wrote: post #58
marcell wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What’s interesting to me is that the federal tax cuts passed last year cost around $150B a year. I know you may not support this either, but that would pay for the construction of 1 and a 1/2 HSR’s a year, even with the cost overrun. Reminds me of PG’s essay about how it’s easy to loss lots of money on bad investments, even for people who are normally frugal on luxuries.

Tax rates were cut; tax revenue was not. The federal government is expecting $26 billion more in tax revenue than in 2017.

That may have been the estimate, but so far receipts are not keeping pace with 2017. Depending on your reference tax year revenues are 3% - 8% lower than 2017 thus far [1].

[1] http://www.crfb.org/blogs/tax-bill-did-not-cause-revenue-ris...

Re: Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

#92

Post by jakecopp »

richk449 wrote: post #68
eloff wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For $100B you could buy ~33,000 $3M-dollar electric commuter planes with 10 person capacity and 600mi range - not quite anything like that on the market yet mind you - but it seems close at hand. You could cover nearly the whole state, not just LA SF, and have 330,000 person capacity. By what measure would this train be better? Certainly not economic, noise, land-use, speed, convenience, coverage, or flexibility. Pro…

Very impressive. But in just three minutes, I thought of an even better plan: put a $10M wormhole between LA and SF and have near instant travel. Wormholes don’t quite exist yet, but they seem close at hand.

I thought of an even better plan: put a $7.5B Hyperloop between LA and SF and have near instant travel. Hyperloops don't quite exist yet, but they seem close at hand.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/050815/elon-...

Re: Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

#93

Post by kaikai »

tropo wrote: post #51
Aloha wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's supposed to link the whole state, not just LA to the Bay

We can do both. Put all the stations on sidings so that stopped trains do not block the main track. Trains operate point-to-point just like aircraft, with everybody getting on and off at the same time. This means that there is little downside to adding more stops. The trip time for other stops is unaffected. There is no energy or time wasted on intermediate stops.

How were you imagining that many trains running on the tracks simultaneously? Stopping on a siding and waiting for a train to pass going the other direction takes time, never mind if there were trains running in both directions for every possible combination of stops.

Re: Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

#94

Post by closeparen »

AlexB138 wrote: post #8

So, this article has some valid criticisms, but why is this the case? Why does it seem like modern America can't manage any public works projects without them taking twice as long and costing twice as much as projected? Is it regulation? Lack of work ethic? Graft? It seems like a major problem.

Maybe a better question is why are our estimates so unrealistically low? Bid processes choose the vendor who claims they can do it the cheapest, not the one who actually can.

Re: Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

#95

Post by tathougies »

cco wrote: post #37
niftich wrote: post #17

While this article finds an issue with the way the Tejon Pass route was eliminated in favor of the Tehachapi Pass route, Tejon Pass route would skip a station in Lancaster/Palmdale, which would be a mistake. As the article acknowledges, these are rapidly growing exurbs that are refuge from the exorbitant land prices in the LA Basin. There is existing commuter rail service between there and Downtown LA, but a HSR is a…

What the heck is the train line doing near Fresno? Why is it not following I-5 and making zero stops in between the South Bay and LA?

Fresno is the third largest city in the state and the agricultural capital of the state. Going through Fresno will link the three largest industries: technology, entertainment, and agriculture.

Re: Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

#96

Post by tathougies »

scythe wrote: post #52
niftich wrote: post #17

While this article finds an issue with the way the Tejon Pass route was eliminated in favor of the Tehachapi Pass route, Tejon Pass route would skip a station in Lancaster/Palmdale, which would be a mistake. As the article acknowledges, these are rapidly growing exurbs that are refuge from the exorbitant land prices in the LA Basin. There is existing commuter rail service between there and Downtown LA, but a HSR is a…

> these are rapidly growing exurbs that are refuge from the exorbitant land prices in the LA Basin. What kind of country are we building where we send people to live in exurbs in a literal barren desert -- I'm not exaggerating, I was in Palmdale a few weeks ago, and it could have inspired Solzhenitsyn -- with a fast train into the city, lest the petit bourgeois of L.A. be forced to live in - ugh - townhomes? There ar…

People like living in Palmdale. Believe it or not, many people find deserts beautiful. Having grown up in So Cal, I certainly do.'

Re: Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

#97

Post by tathougies »

chrischen wrote: post #9
AlexB138 wrote: post #8

So, this article has some valid criticisms, but why is this the case? Why does it seem like modern America can't manage any public works projects without them taking twice as long and costing twice as much as projected? Is it regulation? Lack of work ethic? Graft? It seems like a major problem.

We're all spread out really really far compared to the rest of the world.

While perhaps true, this doesn't actually address the question asked, which is why we are unable to create accurate projections and meet projected budgets. This is wholly unaffected by the density of the areas being connected, because presumable such density would simply be taken into account via whatever mathematical / economical modeling is being down.

Re: Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

#99

Post by tathougies »

rayiner wrote: post #78
ProfessorLayton wrote: post #11

As someone who voted for this project, I'm really bummed with how it's actually turning out. The actual costs are so much more than what people voted for, yet no one's being held responsible. At the same time, I don't really have a solution to this problem. We need to invest in large scale transportation initiatives for the future — projects just as forward-looking as BART once was. Yet not even NYC can pull it toget…

> As someone who voted for this project, I'm really bummed with how it's actually turning out. The actual costs are so much more than what people voted for, yet no one's being held responsible. Anyone who didn't expect a California-run HSR project to not be wildly over budget is a fool.

Yeah, exactly. Voted for the High-speed rail line knowing full well the budget was an absolute joke. It doesn't matter. While i would like to have a more efficient state, it's abundantly clear we need a high speed rail system between our economic centers. Otherwise, there won't be any money left to pay for anything.

Re: Fast Train to Failure: California’s Mismanaged High-Speed Rail Project

#100

Post by culturestate »

RRL wrote: post #67
zcbenz wrote: post #35

In comparison, the Chuo Shinkansen connecting Tokyo and Nagoya (286km in distance), which runs at a maximum speed of 505 km/h (314 mph), costs about 45 billion US dollars.

Thanks for the context. So the Chuo Shinkansen = ~ $253,218,691/mi.(9 stations) Est. CA HSR (Stage 1) = $190,384,615/mi (15 stations)

The Chuo Shinkansen is also a maglev line built mostly underground; it's not an apples-to-apples comparison.
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