Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf] • Hacker News Board

Re: Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf]

#81

Post by randyrand » Thu, Dec 06, 2018, 9:45 PM UTC

PhasmaFelis wrote: post #68

randyrand wrote: post #51

I've long been in the camp that we worry about climate change more than makes rational sense. I'm not saying we should ignore it, but we often overstate. It's worth remembering that the effects on QoL will be completely eclipsed by technological progress within that period and that the timescales that GW happen over (50+ years) are long enough that most people will hardly ever notice it. Gradual relocation will be ou…

"Gradual relocation" of several billion people will be extremely challenging and unfathomably expensive even on a half-century timescale. Barring a way to physically transport entire cities along with buildings, roads, and infrastructure, I don't see any way that "technological progress" can substantially change that.

Buildings don't last forever. "Ideally, the average lifespan of any concrete structure is 75-100 years. But, it is considered that the average life of an apartment is 50-60 years while of a house it is 40 years." [1] Older buildings have been actively maintained.

Designing new cities without the cruft of older ones is a huge opportunity. However, it's likely that most building owners will just add couple extra meters of dirt below when it comes time to rebuild a given structure. Even skyscrapers do not last forever.

[1] https://www.makaan.com/iq/buy-sell-move-property/what-is-the...

[2] https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-life-expectancy-of-a-Skysc...

Re: Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf]

#82

Post by nabla9 » Thu, Dec 06, 2018, 9:46 PM UTC

I still remember watching TV in early 90's and seeing clips from Hansen's 1988 senate testimony and hearing first time the "Now is the last time to act on climate change." from someone in TV.

Key numbers to get the point across.

* Starting mitigation in 2000 would have required mitigation rate 4%/year. (1.5 C goal)

* Starting mitigation in 2018 will require mitigation rate 18%/year. 18 percent! (1.5 C goal). There is no realistic scenario where this can happen.

* Nine years from now complete halt of all manmade CO2 emissions is too late to prevent crossing 1.5C.

* Global fossil and cement CO2 emissions keep going up, not down: http://folk.uio.no/roberan/img/GCB2018/PNG/s09_2018_FossilFu...

* CO2 mitigation curve becomes steeper and steeper. http://folk.uio.no/roberan/img/GCB2018/PNG/s00_2018_Mitigati...

Re: Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf]

#83

Post by ilove_banh_mi » Thu, Dec 06, 2018, 9:46 PM UTC

cagenut wrote: post #60

ilove_banh_mi wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Two thoughts related to your "what to do" paragraph: - I vaguely recall a Fredric Brown (?) story where people turn to (conceptually, self-defense) violence against cars because they've reached the insight that the fumes are literally killing them, like cigarette smoke. - Some people (hmmm, "some people I know") have chosen direct action and planned+participated in sabotage of pipelines and railroads (used for coal a…

what happens to 10 million bangladeshi children when they go from having two or three rice crops a year to one or two?

Harsh but maybe fair. I readily admit that I don't have the heart to say that to my friends who have young kids. Do you say this in person?

Re: Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf]

#84

Post by vladimirralev » Thu, Dec 06, 2018, 9:47 PM UTC

Symmetry wrote: post #61

randyrand wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How can you even say that? Climate science has uncertainty. There are definitely still things being debated.

Would you be willing to play Russian Roulette with a revolver with four bullets in the chambers just because there's uncertainty about whether the gun would go off when you pulled the trigger? Yes, there's a chance that climate change is going to no big deal. The most likely future occurrence is that things go the way the sober scientists at the IPCC give in their median prediction - a disaster but an eminently manag…

Just watch the video. They talk about all of this. I don't understand why I am getting so many nasty comments especially when those points are addressed in this video. Both guys are serious scientists and respect each other while feeling completely embarrassed by the zealots.

You talk about the russian roulette with climate, but the issue is far more complicated. There are bunch of other russian roulettes to consider with policy and society. What if society needs carbon to run the economy and keep the jobs and peace? What if oil-dependent countries collapse and turn to war, terrorism or mass-migration? Those are substantial risks that can kill many people and affect the quality of life for the worse globally too. You see what happened in France when they raised the fuel tax. It's not hard to imagine some worse scenarios.

Re: Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf]

#85

Post by YetAnotherNick » Thu, Dec 06, 2018, 9:50 PM UTC

PhasmaFelis wrote: post #77

YetAnotherNick wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think many people signal that they are against global warming, but very few are ready to give up any thing. Many people I know just think not using polyethylene is the only required thing(which emits less CO2 than reusable bag, even counting reusing), or at most using bicycles for intracity travel. I think here is few of the (hard)things you can do which actually does effect according to my research: - Don't travel…

IIRC something like 70%-80% of CO2 emissions are industrial, not personal. By all means do whatever you can, but the idea that global warming is all about our individual habits is essentially a smokescreen. If we want to fix this, the most important thing is to force corporations and governments to take action.

Source?

Edit: One reason I doubt this is, China emits half of US per capita emissions while manufacturing more(steel, concrete, most high volume products) per capita.

Re: Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf]

#86

Post by Comevius » Thu, Dec 06, 2018, 9:51 PM UTC

yters wrote: post #53

Comevius wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are literally no 2 sides . There is a ~97% scientific consensus, then there are these people: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_scientists_who_disagre... . John Christy (the other side in your video) represents the ~3%. His research was shown to be wrong over and over again. Most recently in 2017: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JTECH-D-16-0121... . https://www.theguardian.com/environment/clima…

Check out this wikipedia page that casts scientific consensus in a slightly different light: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superseded_scientific_theory

It's a good thing that theories are superseeded, as they are supposed to be testable and falsifiable. Our understanding of climate change is being superseeded literally on a daily basis. That's what the ~97% represents. It's like Newtonian physics.

The people who say that climate change is a hoax either don't follow the scientific method or make predictions that are being falsified over and over by the ~97%.

It's not the consensus that matters, it's the testability.

Re: Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf]

#87

Post by ilove_banh_mi » Thu, Dec 06, 2018, 9:53 PM UTC

yters wrote: post #58

randyrand wrote: post #51

I've long been in the camp that we worry about climate change more than makes rational sense. I'm not saying we should ignore it, but we often overstate. It's worth remembering that the effects on QoL will be completely eclipsed by technological progress within that period and that the timescales that GW happen over (50+ years) are long enough that most people will hardly ever notice it. Gradual relocation will be ou…

If we were truly concerned, we should work on eliminating water vapor, since that accounts for much more of the greenhouse effect than carbon dioxide. Or, pump out even more carbon dioxide to increase the warming and water vapor, and hence increase cloud cover to cool the earth.

Provocatively worded... but intriguing from an engineering POV: if it is too late to limit CO2 levels and return to pre-industrial levels, what levers do we have to control water vapor levels?

Re: Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf]

#88

Post by Brakenshire » Thu, Dec 06, 2018, 9:55 PM UTC

randyrand wrote: post #51

I've long been in the camp that we worry about climate change more than makes rational sense. I'm not saying we should ignore it, but we often overstate. It's worth remembering that the effects on QoL will be completely eclipsed by technological progress within that period and that the timescales that GW happen over (50+ years) are long enough that most people will hardly ever notice it. Gradual relocation will be ou…

If the world was composed of countries living at the quality of life of Western Europe or America and with that level of technical and economic expertise this would I think be reasonable, but in fact billions of people are living hand to mouth. Look at the effect that Syrian migration to Europe or indeed Mexican migration to the USA has had on Western politics. Now imagine instead of 5 million people from Syria 100 million or 500 million are on the move? Is the population of Bangladesh going to gradually relocate, and if so where to? Its nuclear armed neighbour on one side, with their own hundred million to be displaced from subsistence agriculture, or the country conducting ethnic cleansing on the other? You have assumed a greater degree of stablity than is reasonable.

Re: Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf]

#89

Post by randyrand » Thu, Dec 06, 2018, 10:01 PM UTC

Brakenshire wrote: post #88

randyrand wrote: post #51

I've long been in the camp that we worry about climate change more than makes rational sense. I'm not saying we should ignore it, but we often overstate. It's worth remembering that the effects on QoL will be completely eclipsed by technological progress within that period and that the timescales that GW happen over (50+ years) are long enough that most people will hardly ever notice it. Gradual relocation will be ou…

If the world was composed of countries living at the quality of life of Western Europe or America and with that level of technical and economic expertise this would I think be reasonable, but in fact billions of people are living hand to mouth. Look at the effect that Syrian migration to Europe or indeed Mexican migration to the USA has had on Western politics. Now imagine instead of 5 million people from Syria 100 m…

People will primarily move more inland within their own countries. Some cities will be raised. Neighboring countries will absorb some. Small border shifts may happen, as have happened for centuries.

Re: Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf]

#90

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Dec 06, 2018, 10:02 PM UTC

PhasmaFelis wrote: post #77

YetAnotherNick wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think many people signal that they are against global warming, but very few are ready to give up any thing. Many people I know just think not using polyethylene is the only required thing(which emits less CO2 than reusable bag, even counting reusing), or at most using bicycles for intracity travel. I think here is few of the (hard)things you can do which actually does effect according to my research: - Don't travel…

IIRC something like 70%-80% of CO2 emissions are industrial, not personal. By all means do whatever you can, but the idea that global warming is all about our individual habits is essentially a smokescreen. If we want to fix this, the most important thing is to force corporations and governments to take action.

[deleted]