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Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf]

columbia.edu

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Re: Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf]

#41

Post by jimjansen1 »

ilove_banh_mi wrote: post #14
strict9 wrote: post #2

Skimmed through this, but I can't make it all the way. It's so jarring and too depressing. I lump climate change deniers into the same category as flat-earthers. Although I have more respect for the latter, as at least they aren't blindly swallowing self-serving nonsense spewed by ignorant politicians and certain news outlets.

I don't think there are scientists who deny past or present climate change. Do you mean to disparage the many scientists who research the causes of past climate change, and who hypothesize that the current changes are, like all past changes, caused by other factors than the man-made, industrial-age rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide?

There is overwhelming consensus that the current rate of climate change, which by the way is totally unprecedented in history, can be from no other source than anthropogenic CO2. You can read the research and see how thoroughly and completely every possible confounding variable was accounted for.

The scientists who claim "current changes are, like all past changes, caused by other factors than the man-made" are not taken seriously by the mainstream, form an unimaginably slim minority and frankly are dangerously wrong.

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/

Re: Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf]

#42

Post by sgt101 »

rapjr9 wrote: post #34

Some constructive criticism: I think this document is written backwards and does not contain what CEO's are interested in. The disastrous effects should come first and preceding that should be forecasts of the effect on the bottom line (profits). The business implications of climate change are what might capture their attention. Market disruptions for example, trends in adoption of EV cars, growth in solar and wind,…

My experience is that CEO's don't need persuading on this issue, they are convinced but their fiduciary duties limit the scope of their actions. What they would like is sharp, clear regulation that provided a level playing field. The people who need persuading are voters.

Re: Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf]

#43

Post by jimjansen1 »

ilove_banh_mi wrote: post #16

After solving global warming, should we be more concerned by the approaching end of the current interglacial period? The next glacial period of the current Ice Age is going to be terrible for our stage of technology and civilization. If we are serious about the current issues of climate change, and about potential asteroid impacts, why should we not also be planning for the mid- to long-term risk of the return to an…

Seriously fuck off.

Re: Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf]

#45

Post by logjammin »

logjammin wrote: post #3

I'm in my thirties. I don't have kids, but want them. I don't want to admit to them that I did nothing about global warming when it counted. The thing is that I don't know what I should do; it seems so big, so intractable. Articles like these stir me to action, but what action? Where's the mass movement on this? Where's the group, the party, the leadership?

Reading thru replies. Thanks for taking the time. I hasten to add that what I meant is more "what can I do with other people, perhaps collectively?"

The focus on our individual behavior is all well and good as far as it goes, but I agree with a commenter below that it can't be the only thing each of us does. I don't own a car, I live in an apartment building, I eat very little red meat, etc. But the hour is getting late, clearly, and it can't just be "let's make sure everyone recycles". Power is real: a small number of people in this world wield vast amounts of it, and they're dead-set on staying the course. My not eating beef will not make a dent in those peoples' behavior, so it's times like these when our/my American focus on "what we can do as individuals" feels maddeningly myopic. I want something more. I guess the good news is a lot of you feel the same way, maybe?

Re: Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf]

#46

Post by trhway »

vladimirralev wrote: post #13

I invite everybody to watch this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vaiZ5BHaUMY A calm, collected, scientific representation of both sides.

>both sides

i'm still to hear the "other side" of CO2 molecules absorption spectrum, specifically in infrared. 200 years and still no such "other side" ...

https://history.aip.org/climate/co2.htm

"Beginning with work by Joseph Fourier in the 1820s, scientists had understood that gases in the atmosphere might trap the heat received from the Sun. "

Re: Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf]

#47

Post by rebuilder »

cagenut wrote: post #9
logjammin wrote: post #3

I'm in my thirties. I don't have kids, but want them. I don't want to admit to them that I did nothing about global warming when it counted. The thing is that I don't know what I should do; it seems so big, so intractable. Articles like these stir me to action, but what action? Where's the mass movement on this? Where's the group, the party, the leadership?

First of all, since this is a community in which many fancy themselves engineers, ground yourself in the numbers. The main ones being: - number of gigatons emitted to date - rate of ongoing emissions - change in the rate of ongoing emissions - what total emissions numbers correspond to what PPM in the atmosphere - what ppm in the atmosphere correspond to what degrees of C warming (in various timeframes) here is a nic…

I'm starting to wonder if telling people what they can personally change in their lives is actually counterproductive. The gains to be had there are not that great.

Sure it's good to minimize energy use as you outline. But where does it leave you in terms of tonnes of CO2/year?

AFAIK the Paris accord goals (inadequate as they are) imply a target of around 1500 kg of CO2 per capita yearly. Homeless people achieve that in the west. You won't get near those levels, hower much you try to reduce your personal consumption.

We're not going to individual-responsibility our way out of this, and I wonder if getting people to try will just give them a false sense of accomplishment.

Re: Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf]

#48

Post by randyrand »

skosch wrote: post #33
vladimirralev wrote: post #13

I invite everybody to watch this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vaiZ5BHaUMY A calm, collected, scientific representation of both sides.

Please abstain from propagating the "both sides" nonsense. One can admit to degrees of model uncertainty without insinuating that climate change is a matter of opinion.

How can you even say that? Climate science has uncertainty. There are definitely still things being debated.

Re: Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf]

#49

Post by mushufasa »

logjammin wrote: post #3

I'm in my thirties. I don't have kids, but want them. I don't want to admit to them that I did nothing about global warming when it counted. The thing is that I don't know what I should do; it seems so big, so intractable. Articles like these stir me to action, but what action? Where's the mass movement on this? Where's the group, the party, the leadership?

If you own stocks in companies or funds, you can take action as a shareowner.

I recently built a site to empower you to take action to Ask them to improve.

See here: https://www.yourstake.org/ask/vanguard-vanguard-tell-compani...

Re: Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm [pdf]

#50

Post by Symmetry »

marssaxman wrote: post #12
logjammin wrote: post #3

I'm in my thirties. I don't have kids, but want them. I don't want to admit to them that I did nothing about global warming when it counted. The thing is that I don't know what I should do; it seems so big, so intractable. Articles like these stir me to action, but what action? Where's the mass movement on this? Where's the group, the party, the leadership?

Don't worry about it too much. I did as much about global warming as I could find to do back when it counted, but I accomplished nothing. The planet is fucked, and there's nothing we can do about it now. The good news is that your kids won't know any better. They'll grow up in the desolate, unhealthy, ruined world we are leaving them, and they are going to love it - it'll be the only world they know, after all, and t…

When it counted? Each degree the climate changes is worse than the last. The first .5 degree of climate warming was probably actually a good thing but going from 1.0 to 1.5 isn't and 2.0 to 2.5 is much worse than that. We don't know if low lying Pacific islands are doomed and if we'll have to be accepting a bunch of refugees but it's possible we can save them. What we almost certainly still have the power to prevent is tens of millions of people in India from dying in heatwaves where the dew point exceeds survivable temperatures without air conditioning. We don't actually know where runaway positive feedback loops might be.
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