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Would You Go to China on Business Now?

shift.newco.co

11–20 of 28 posts

Re: Would You Go to China on Business Now?

#11
post #8

> a scion of global capitalism is now in jail for geopolitical crimes, a first in the modern history of the western hemisphere, as far as I can tell. That's mostly an indication this doesn't happen often enough. The world just might be a better place if we started actually jailing "scions of global capitalism" for the crimes they commit. Also, is it only me, or is this rather close to a completely unhinged rant?

It's very close to an unhinged rant.

Re: Would You Go to China on Business Now?

#12

Off-the-cuff reaction to the question in the article title is that the author is not important enough to be worried (saying that respectfully, not to be a dick). I definitely wouldn't go if I were Tim Cook or Zuck or someone like that. Will be interesting/scary to see what China does in response.

Tim Cook knows how to play ball with repressive governments. You should give him more credit.

Re: Would You Go to China on Business Now?

#13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, why offshore your cheap labor when you can get an American non-violent drug offender to build it for less than $1 an hour. Then you can slap that sweet Made In The USA label on your product too. /s

This is a rather low-effort comment, which sets up a false dichotomy.

It's far from a false dichotomy. Non-violent drug offenses are the modern day equivalent of vagrancy laws and private enterprise making use of prison labor the equivalent of the chain gang.

Just because China is unquestionably more authoritarian doesn't mean that we don't have similar arrangements in America.

Re: Would You Go to China on Business Now?

#14

Before we assume that this is "a high stakes game of geopolitical poker to divert from Mueller", as the author suggests, let's see exactly what a C-level executive of one of the world's largest tech companies allegedly offered to the Iranians and for what purpose . Hypothetically, for all we know she was offering to use the company to launder money made from selling nuclear weapons tech on the black market. It's not…

I agree, skepticism is important, but I am willing to believe that this arrest was for basically the reasons stated, and I think to assume that it is completely otherwise would be overly cynical.

That said, I would not be terribly surprised if the Chinese felt forced to retaliate in some way.

Re: Would You Go to China on Business Now?

#15
Background on the Japanese and Americans in WWII stranded in each other’s respective country.

Americans were pretty much able to get out of Japan after December 7th. I believe the police arrived to talk and quarantine them all, but all the reporters I know made it out on their own easily within the next month or two.

Same thing in Germany. William Shirer was reporting from Berlin as an American up until early 1942.

The Japanese Embassy in the US was arrested en-masse and put into a hotel for the duration of the war. A fun game the State Department would play is encouraging them to file requests for better conditions, equalizing their treatment with the Germans (who got better treatment since they did not surprise attack), and then rebuking them in a face to face meeting for all their requests (violates saving face norm of Japanese society).

Re: Would You Go to China on Business Now?

#16
As someone who goes to China for business regularly…

I am not feeling the trade war much. It comes up in conversation— the Chinese business community is not happy and worried about the economy. Otherwise, it's business as usual.

I have zero worries that I'll be abducted on my next trip as retaliation. Granted— I'm a Swiss citizen and not a public company C-level. Generally, there's a lot of interactions between Chinese and Americans in my field, and I don't think that'll end because of the political difficulties. I'd be very worried if it did.

Re: Would You Go to China on Business Now?

#17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a rather low-effort comment, which sets up a false dichotomy.

It's far from a false dichotomy. Non-violent drug offenses are the modern day equivalent of vagrancy laws and private enterprise making use of prison labor the equivalent of the chain gang. Just because China is unquestionably more authoritarian doesn't mean that we don't have similar arrangements in America.

How does one make use of prison labor? Asking for a friend...

Re: Would You Go to China on Business Now?

#18
post #14

Before we assume that this is "a high stakes game of geopolitical poker to divert from Mueller", as the author suggests, let's see exactly what a C-level executive of one of the world's largest tech companies allegedly offered to the Iranians and for what purpose . Hypothetically, for all we know she was offering to use the company to launder money made from selling nuclear weapons tech on the black market. It's not…

I agree, skepticism is important, but I am willing to believe that this arrest was for basically the reasons stated, and I think to assume that it is completely otherwise would be overly cynical. That said, I would not be terribly surprised if the Chinese felt forced to retaliate in some way.

You need to read "The Chickenshit Club" which details the long, agonizing process the DOJ goes through before making an indictment (and subsequent arrest) because you seem to be laboring under the delusion that one person or persons decided "oh let's just arrest someone important from China"

Edit: I want to add that China is an amazing place everyone should visit at least once in their life and I hope the author does not let his fanatical political theories get in the way of what could be a life-expanding trip.

Re: Would You Go to China on Business Now?

#19

Off-the-cuff reaction to the question in the article title is that the author is not important enough to be worried (saying that respectfully, not to be a dick). I definitely wouldn't go if I were Tim Cook or Zuck or someone like that. Will be interesting/scary to see what China does in response.

Considering the article he just wrote he should be worried.

Re: Would You Go to China on Business Now?

#20
I don't go anymore and here are the reasons why:

1. Arbitrage gone. The China arb on price has largely closed (as it should have) and its not a viable business strategy anymore for the markets I serve.

2. Vendor disinterest. Again, as it should have, the domestic Chinese market has grown such that export business in my markets is more trouble than its worth to my Chinese vendors. Those who do export find it easier to trade with Russia, China, Pakistan, and SE Asia where the technical requirements are fewer.

3. Pollution. I found myself getting sicker each time I went. I'm sensitive to smog, smoke, etc. It just became too painful.

4. Principle. As I get older I have an increasing need to trade with partners who stand for something more than profit. I want to do business with people who believe in making the world a cleaner, safer, more verdant and just place. China isn't there yet. Mercantilism, tribalism and ambition remain the dominant philosophies. I wish for Chinese leadership in a better world in my lifetime, and I'm realistic about its likelihood.

5. Hostility. I maintain a few good personal relationships where I still trade effectively. Those aside, China's prosperity and domestic rhetoric has not resulted in a kinder and gentler approach to Westerners, particularly those of us in America. I see this situation further deteriorating in the coming months and years.

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