Lyft Files for IPO • Hacker News Board

Re: Lyft Files for IPO

#91

Post by inverse_pi » Thu, Dec 06, 2018, 5:29 PM UTC

docker_up wrote: post #63

From a purely investment point of view, why would anyone invest in Lyft over Uber? Lyft has a smaller footprint and only operates in the US (except Toronto). They are more susceptible to economic conditions in a single country, the US, and every point of marketshare they get is a zero-sum game against Uber and presumably expensive because Uber won't give it up for free. Uber has a global operations, is in multiple st…

> Uber has a global operations, is in multiple streams of business and has diversity across business lines

This can be a reason why one would be more interested in Lyft. Uber seems like a distracted player who's losing money on many other markets and businesses, not to mention hundreds of millions of dollars on self-driving cars (and flying cars?!). Lyft is much cheaper (15B valuation), while Uber is much more expensive (120B?). If I invest 1B in Uber, my money would vanish in 1 quarter (yes they're losing 1B/quarter). Those 1B dollars would be split to invest in flying cars, uber eats freight bike/scooter, battles in India Middle East. On the other hand, if I invest 1B in Lyft, I'm sure those 1B would go towards gaining market shares in the US which is by far the most important market for the two players.

Second of all, personally I think if Lyft failed and the stock dropped by half. Some other dominant players would look to acquire Lyft. I'm thinking about Google's Waymo One plus Lyft's network. Apple seems to have a lot of cash to burn also, and they're also developing SDC. On the other hand, Uber's share price has to drop more than 10x in order for it to come close to a reasonable acquisition price.

Re: Lyft Files for IPO

#92

Post by ghaff » Thu, Dec 06, 2018, 5:34 PM UTC

yellow_postit wrote: post #73

mpweiher wrote: post #71

Shrewd move to get it done before Uber. As many others here have noted (and other disputed) there doesn't seem to be an actual viable business model here. So there would be a distinct first mover advantage for getting in your IPO in, lest the other one tank the market for you as it starts to hit reality, such as actually having to have a sustainable business no longer fueled almost exclusively by investor money.

First mover has to operate in the open while the private company can continue with increased flexibility that comes from a lack of disclosure. A question I have for Lyft is why now given the, seeming, lack of a viable biz model?

I think you basically answered your own question. If you assume there really is no viable business model--and isn't going to be one--why wouldn't you take what you can while the taking is good before the suckers, excuse me investors, realize it is all smoke and mirrors? Waiting presupposes either a better exit in some other form (i.e. acquisition) or improving financials/other business metrics that let you price higher for an IPO.

ADDED: And as maxxxxx wrote, it seems as if there are a lot of risks for the general economic picture and I'd expect both Lyft and Uber to be hit pretty hard in any significant downturn as they're luxury goods to at least some degree.

Re: Lyft Files for IPO

#93

Post by foolfoolz » Thu, Dec 06, 2018, 5:37 PM UTC

davio wrote: post #16

_hardwaregeek wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seriously, what's Uber/Lyft's long term goal? If I had to guess, destroy all local taxi services, then fix prices with their competitors and worry about anti-competitive lawsuits later. Waiting for self driving cars feels like a fool's errand.

Taxis are really a short term play. Long term is really transport as a service - who owns the market when people no longer own cars.

but their whole business is built off people owning cars.

i understand people in dense cities may drive less and some not have a car at all, but a car is people important to anyone outside a city in ways ride share will not replace easily. this has nothing to do with lack of public infrastructure, it’s the benefits of being in control of your time

Re: Lyft Files for IPO

#94

Post by blairbeckwith » Thu, Dec 06, 2018, 5:40 PM UTC

docker_up wrote: post #63

From a purely investment point of view, why would anyone invest in Lyft over Uber? Lyft has a smaller footprint and only operates in the US (except Toronto). They are more susceptible to economic conditions in a single country, the US, and every point of marketshare they get is a zero-sum game against Uber and presumably expensive because Uber won't give it up for free. Uber has a global operations, is in multiple st…

Minor nitpick, but Lyft operates in Canada outside Toronto. At the very least, they're in Ottawa.

Re: Lyft Files for IPO

#95

Post by bradleybuda » Thu, Dec 06, 2018, 5:44 PM UTC

docker_up wrote: post #63

From a purely investment point of view, why would anyone invest in Lyft over Uber? Lyft has a smaller footprint and only operates in the US (except Toronto). They are more susceptible to economic conditions in a single country, the US, and every point of marketshare they get is a zero-sum game against Uber and presumably expensive because Uber won't give it up for free. Uber has a global operations, is in multiple st…

In addition to what others have mentioned, likely a lower valuation, hopefully enough to balance out the higher risk.

Re: Lyft Files for IPO

#96

Post by stingrae » Thu, Dec 06, 2018, 5:45 PM UTC

benj111 wrote: post #87

docker_up wrote: post #63

From a purely investment point of view, why would anyone invest in Lyft over Uber? Lyft has a smaller footprint and only operates in the US (except Toronto). They are more susceptible to economic conditions in a single country, the US, and every point of marketshare they get is a zero-sum game against Uber and presumably expensive because Uber won't give it up for free. Uber has a global operations, is in multiple st…

Uber takes the flack, gets the law changed, creates the market. Lyft sails in and gets most of the benefits, without those costs. Uber doesn't have a massive moat. Drivers can have both apps, users can have both apps. You attract drivers by paying them more, you attract riders by charging them less. Uber for now can afford to beat everyone on both those fronts, but eventually they will have to start making a profit.…

As a counter point, Lyft was first to create ride sharing. Internationally, Uber has driven the changes.

Re: Lyft Files for IPO

#97

Post by jonthepirate » Thu, Dec 06, 2018, 5:51 PM UTC

empath75 wrote: post #65

docker_up wrote: post #63

From a purely investment point of view, why would anyone invest in Lyft over Uber? Lyft has a smaller footprint and only operates in the US (except Toronto). They are more susceptible to economic conditions in a single country, the US, and every point of marketshare they get is a zero-sum game against Uber and presumably expensive because Uber won't give it up for free. Uber has a global operations, is in multiple st…

Why would anyone invest in Pepsi over Coca-Cola? Why invest in Apple over Microsoft? Why invest in Tesla over GM? There can be more than one successful company in a segment. Also, well, you can't invest in Uber.

Former Lyft eng here of 2.5 yrs.. Lyft is kicking major a. Don't mean to hype it. Even if they weren't IPO'ing I can tell you they are firing on all pistons. I'm pretty sure the financials are in good shape too.

Haven't worked there in 2 years though.

Fingers crossed.

Re: Lyft Files for IPO

#98

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Dec 06, 2018, 5:59 PM UTC

docker_up wrote: post #63

From a purely investment point of view, why would anyone invest in Lyft over Uber? Lyft has a smaller footprint and only operates in the US (except Toronto). They are more susceptible to economic conditions in a single country, the US, and every point of marketshare they get is a zero-sum game against Uber and presumably expensive because Uber won't give it up for free. Uber has a global operations, is in multiple st…

[deleted]

Re: Lyft Files for IPO

#99

Post by rayiner » Thu, Dec 06, 2018, 5:59 PM UTC

albertgoeswoof wrote: post #36

saalweachter wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's because they've done a shit job of building out a business that could act as the autotaxi. They are terribly placed to take advantage of self-driving vehicles, even if they perfect one, and they are spending in ways that are completely useless towards that long-term goal. A self-driving taxi company is going to look a lot like a car dealership that doesn't sell cars, or a lot like a taxi company that doesn't h…

The UX for self driving Uber === the UX for Uber now The only theoretical differentiator is price. At the moment VC subsides are removing that as well

The UX is such a minuscule part of the business compared to the logistical operations that Uber/Lyft don't have. (Remember, Apple always had the UX. What made it rich is the supply chain, which is why Tim Cook is CEO.)

Re: Lyft Files for IPO

#100

Post by maxxxxx » Thu, Dec 06, 2018, 6:02 PM UTC

yellow_postit wrote: post #73

mpweiher wrote: post #71

Shrewd move to get it done before Uber. As many others here have noted (and other disputed) there doesn't seem to be an actual viable business model here. So there would be a distinct first mover advantage for getting in your IPO in, lest the other one tank the market for you as it starts to hit reality, such as actually having to have a sustainable business no longer fueled almost exclusively by investor money.

First mover has to operate in the open while the private company can continue with increased flexibility that comes from a lack of disclosure. A question I have for Lyft is why now given the, seeming, lack of a viable biz model?

" A question I have for Lyft is why now given the, seeming, lack of a viable biz model?"

The stock market is at a high and looking pretty shaky. Time to cash out before things go downhill.