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Lyft Files for IPO

reuters.com

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Re: Lyft Files for IPO

#51

Post by RandallBrown »

lbacaj wrote: post #48

I see a lot of comments on here about the efficiency of Lyft/Uber's and lots of comments about their overspending. The new book by Reid Hoffman, Blitzscaling, was an eye-opener for me as to how these companies operate and what seems as incredibly inefficient now will all be but forgotten tomorrow when they have complete monopolies over all transportation... The nature of technology makes it winner take all almost alw…

Why would ridesharing be winner take all? There's almost no network effect (beyond splitting the cost, but Venmo has largely solved that) and the drivers all drive for all of them.

In NYC I think there's at least 4 ridesharing companies and I usually choose which one based on which one has given me a promo.

Re: Lyft Files for IPO

#52

Post by IshKebab »

lallysingh wrote: post #22
wbl wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Too easy to enter the market, at least in a small area for price fixing to work.

This exactly. I think eventually we could see a Kayak-like service that just compares rates for your trip against a set and books accordingly. Containing Uber/Lyft/local taxi service/etc. It's very easy to enter the market. You just need a map in a UI (mapbox) and a way to charge people (stripe/square). There's probably a decent market for transportation-service-as-a-service. $1000 gets you all setup with a custom ap…

Google Maps already has this. Well it doesn't charge you in the map, but it shows you services and gives you a price estimate.

Re: Lyft Files for IPO

#53

Post by ovi256 »

lallysingh wrote: post #22
wbl wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Too easy to enter the market, at least in a small area for price fixing to work.

This exactly. I think eventually we could see a Kayak-like service that just compares rates for your trip against a set and books accordingly. Containing Uber/Lyft/local taxi service/etc. It's very easy to enter the market. You just need a map in a UI (mapbox) and a way to charge people (stripe/square). There's probably a decent market for transportation-service-as-a-service. $1000 gets you all setup with a custom ap…

Wish someone started a list of "Posts on HN underestimating X".

Re: Lyft Files for IPO

#54

Post by Synthetase »

deminature wrote: post #44
lallysingh wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This exactly. I think eventually we could see a Kayak-like service that just compares rates for your trip against a set and books accordingly. Containing Uber/Lyft/local taxi service/etc. It's very easy to enter the market. You just need a map in a UI (mapbox) and a way to charge people (stripe/square). There's probably a decent market for transportation-service-as-a-service. $1000 gets you all setup with a custom ap…

Have you considered you might be glossing over some of the complexity involved in running operations like these?

I am private beta testing an app that does exactly what is described.

Re: Lyft Files for IPO

#55

Post by lewis500 »

RandallBrown wrote: post #51
lbacaj wrote: post #48

I see a lot of comments on here about the efficiency of Lyft/Uber's and lots of comments about their overspending. The new book by Reid Hoffman, Blitzscaling, was an eye-opener for me as to how these companies operate and what seems as incredibly inefficient now will all be but forgotten tomorrow when they have complete monopolies over all transportation... The nature of technology makes it winner take all almost alw…

Why would ridesharing be winner take all? There's almost no network effect (beyond splitting the cost, but Venmo has largely solved that) and the drivers all drive for all of them. In NYC I think there's at least 4 ridesharing companies and I usually choose which one based on which one has given me a promo.

There is a network effect. Imagine if you made a ridesharing app with only one driver. No one would use the app due to high wait times. That's an edge case but it gets the point across: too few drivers and no one will use your app, and if no one uses the app no drivers will enlist in your service.

Re: Lyft Files for IPO

#56

Post by a13n »

RandallBrown wrote: post #51
lbacaj wrote: post #48

I see a lot of comments on here about the efficiency of Lyft/Uber's and lots of comments about their overspending. The new book by Reid Hoffman, Blitzscaling, was an eye-opener for me as to how these companies operate and what seems as incredibly inefficient now will all be but forgotten tomorrow when they have complete monopolies over all transportation... The nature of technology makes it winner take all almost alw…

Why would ridesharing be winner take all? There's almost no network effect (beyond splitting the cost, but Venmo has largely solved that) and the drivers all drive for all of them. In NYC I think there's at least 4 ridesharing companies and I usually choose which one based on which one has given me a promo.

There are plenty of network effects.

To start a new ridesharing company, you have to get drivers and riders. You'd have to offer them a ton of incentives to start driving/riding with your service, when the existing options are well established.

For drivers, Lyft and Uber have incentives (lower fees) if you do the majority of rides with their service, which incentivizes you to only drive with one service.

When's the last time you downloaded a new app on your phone? For me it's been weeks, maybe months. For so many people, it's easier to just not try your new rideshare service.

Re: Lyft Files for IPO

#57

Post by jcfrei »

maxxxxx wrote: post #19
davio wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taxis are really a short term play. Long term is really transport as a service - who owns the market when people no longer own cars.

You can't own that market at least the way Uber or Lyft do it. It's so easy for their drivers to switch and it's easy for their customers. In my view they will keep their dominant market positions only while they subsidize rides and lose money. But as soon as they raise prices to be profitable there will be plenty of competition. I think the endgame is to dump the stock on the public market so investors and execs can…

A ride hailing service needs to reach a critical density of available cars per km^2 to be useful. When you first install the app there needs to be someone nearby who will pick you up - if there's no car nearby most people will uninstall it. Additionally the more people use your app and the more drivers you have in an area the more effectively you can deal with idling (less variance in demand spikes - making planning easier for drivers). So on the contrary: I think this is a very difficult market to enter for new companies.

Re: Lyft Files for IPO

#58

Post by dawhizkid »

RandallBrown wrote: post #51
lbacaj wrote: post #48

I see a lot of comments on here about the efficiency of Lyft/Uber's and lots of comments about their overspending. The new book by Reid Hoffman, Blitzscaling, was an eye-opener for me as to how these companies operate and what seems as incredibly inefficient now will all be but forgotten tomorrow when they have complete monopolies over all transportation... The nature of technology makes it winner take all almost alw…

Why would ridesharing be winner take all? There's almost no network effect (beyond splitting the cost, but Venmo has largely solved that) and the drivers all drive for all of them. In NYC I think there's at least 4 ridesharing companies and I usually choose which one based on which one has given me a promo.

Ride sharing is generally supply constrained. The dirty secret is that drivers are considered internally as the real customers for ride sharing cos - they literally bring them all the money.

Re: Lyft Files for IPO

#59

Post by a13n »

ArtWomb wrote: post #2

I see tremendous upside getting into either $LYFT below $20B or $UBER at $120B, which recently announced operational air taxi service by 2023.

I see tremendous upside potential in one of those investments :P

Re: Lyft Files for IPO

#60

Post by sbilstein »

jcfrei wrote: post #57
maxxxxx wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't own that market at least the way Uber or Lyft do it. It's so easy for their drivers to switch and it's easy for their customers. In my view they will keep their dominant market positions only while they subsidize rides and lose money. But as soon as they raise prices to be profitable there will be plenty of competition. I think the endgame is to dump the stock on the public market so investors and execs can…

A ride hailing service needs to reach a critical density of available cars per km^2 to be useful. When you first install the app there needs to be someone nearby who will pick you up - if there's no car nearby most people will uninstall it. Additionally the more people use your app and the more drivers you have in an area the more effectively you can deal with idling (less variance in demand spikes - making planning…

You'd be surprised. Since switching is so low, you can pay your way to acquiring all the supply and demand to kick something off, hence all the ridesharing companies in NYC: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ubers-competitors-in-nyc-are-...

If you subsidize driving and subsidize riding significantly, people will sign up. A $40 bonus covers several rides for a customer so they'll hold onto the app at least until they've used their initial free offering.

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